福尔摩斯：基本演绎法

Elementary S06E19

Part 6 Feb. 12, 2020, 11:06 a.m.

说事成之后就会放我走
and that he was gonna let me go when it was done.
你觉得年长的那个是老大吗
Do you think the older man was the boss?
感觉是
It felt that way.
我觉得另一个人在那里
I... I think the other guy
主要是为了监视我
was there mostly just to keep an eye on me.
有一次年长的那个回来
At one point, the older guy came back,
朝另一个人发了大火
and he was very mad at the other one.
然后他们去了大厅
So they went to the hall.
我听不清他们在吵什么
I-I couldn't hear what they were fighting about.
但是突然有很嘈杂的噪音
But then there were these loud noises.
后来又一片寂静
And then it went silent.
最后只有年长的那个人回来了
And then just the older guy came back.
把我的头罩住
He put the hood back on me,
逼我进入汽车后备箱
and then he forced me into the trunk of a car.
后来他把你带去哪里了
What about where he took you next?
有什么能告诉我们的吗
Anything you can tell us?
是个地下室
It was a basement.
我们下了楼梯
We went down a flight of stairs.
他让我继续工作
He made me get back to work.
完成后他又把我的头罩住
When I was finished, he put the hood back on
把我塞进汽车后备箱
and put me back in the trunk of his car.
只是这次我
Only this time, I...
我感觉旁边有个铲子
I felt a shovel next to me.
我意识到他要杀了我
And I realized that he was gonna kill me.
那你怎么逃走的
So, how did you escape?
我用铲子的边缘
I used the edge of the shovel
把绑着我的绳子割断了
to cut the tape around my wrists.
把头罩拿下来
And I got the hood off,
后备箱里有个荧光把手
and the trunk had one of these glow-in-the-dark handles inside.
最后我发现车停下来了
So, eventually, I just felt the car stop
可能是等红绿灯
at a light or something, and...
我就逃出来了
I just made a break for it.
一直跑
I just ran.
你为什么去找哈伦
So, why did you go to Harlan's?
为什么不去报♥警♥ 或者回家
Why not go to the police or go home?
我不敢回家
I was too afraid to go back home.
而且我觉得需要警告哈伦
And I thought I needed to warn Harlan.
他可能会是下一个
I thought he might be next.
为什么
Why would Harlan be next?
因为他们让我算的东西其实是他的工作
Because that math they had me working on-- it was his.
他们想让我修改一下
They wanted me to make changes to it.
我能不能
Is there a way that I could
打印点地图出来
print out some maps?
这是应急管理局洪水地图
This is a FEMA flood map.
绑♥架♥者让你重画洪水区域吗
Kidnappers were making you redraw flood zones?
能解释下吗
Care to let the rest of us in?
当然
Uh, sure.
应急管理局是个联邦机构
FEMA, the federal government,
主要负责评估全国范围内的
is in charge of determining the risk of flooding
洪灾风险
for everywhere in the country.
这些地图是把洪灾风险细化到每个区域
And maps like this break the flood risks down into zones.
红色表示风险最高橙色其次以此类推
Red is the highest risk, orange is second, and so on.
这些地图通常用来安排应急预案
They're used to plan emergency responses
以及哪些人需要洪灾保险需要多少
and to say who needs flood insurance, and how much.
但由于气候变化和海平面上升
But with climate change and rising sea levels,
应急管理局最近在重制以前的地图
FEMA has been redoing all the old maps.
你也参与了吗
And you were involved in that work?
三年前有参与过
Uh, I was-- three years ago.
这些地图所涉及到的数据
There is a staggering amount of data
极其庞大
that goes into these maps.
很多都需要统计分♥析♥
And a lot of it comes down to statistical analysis,
X事件在经过Y年之后发生的可能性
the likelihood of X event happening in Y number of years.
算不完的
It takes forever.
我最近听一个同事说
I mean, I heard from a colleague recently
我们当时研究的地图
that the maps we were working on back then
最近才进入公开审核阶段
are just entering the public review phase now.
所以你的地图还不是正式的
So your maps aren't official yet?
对
No.
而绑♥架♥你的人希望
And your captors wanted you to
你把哈伦的算法改一下
change the math that Harlan was doing
进而改变这些地图的样子
in order to make the maps look different.
能给我们看看改完之后的样子吗
Could you show us what that would look like?
地图上布鲁克林洪水区目前是这样子的
These maps show what Brooklyn flood zones look like now,
从上世纪八十年代♥开♥始就这样了
which is how they've looked, like, since the '80s.
如果哈伦的研究正式通过了
So, if the work Harlan did becomes official,
这些红色♥区♥域会延伸到这里
then this red zone would come all the way out here.
绑♥架♥者要你改完后
And how did your kidnapper want the flood zone to look
洪水区是什么样的
using the math he made you do?
他想让你把洪水区
He wanted you to move the projected flood waters
挪到旁边的区域至少从地图上展现成这样
to a different neighborhood-- on paper, at least.
如果说最初是安普尔计算的
So, if Mr. Emple did the math the first time,
为什么不直接绑♥架♥他就好了
why didn't they just take you?
最有可能的是我只是这个项目
Best guess-- I was one of a group of experts
专家组的其中一员
working on the project.
上面也没署我的名字
My name wasn't on it.
为什么绑♥架♥莉莉据你所言
Why take Lily? From what you've told us,
她根本没参与
she wasn't involved at all.
我也一直在想这个问题
Well, I've been wondering about that, too.
几周前我去过泛滥平原协调官的办公室
I went to the Floodplain Coordinator's Office a few weeks ago.
我想看看这些地图的算法
I wanted to see the math behind the maps.
哈伦曾经在课上提起过
Harlan had talked about it in class,
他的工作我想研究一下
about the work he did, and I wanted to study it.
我去的时候他们复印了我的身份证
They copied my I.D. when I was there.
我不明白的是为什么有人要修改
What I don't get is, why would someone want to mess
洪水风险地图
with flood maps in the first place?
新地图把一个
The area the new map puts at a higher risk
非常抢手的地段放到了危险区域
is some of the hottest real estate in the city.
同时也让那里的保险费涨到了天际
Which also makes it subject to the highest insurance premiums.
你说这张地图是用来
Now, you said that this map is used
评定保险需求的是吗
to set insurance requirements, right?
所以如果这张地图经过官方认证
So, if this map became official,
那对于向这个地区
it would make it really good for anyone
销♥售♥保险的人来说不是很好吗
selling flood insurance to this neighborhood.
没错如果应急管理局采用这地图
You're right. If FEMA adopted this map,
对我来说确实会更好
it would be really good for me.
假设我不关心我一半客户的
Assuming I don't care if the homes and businesses
家和办公室十年内会沉入水下的话
of half my clients are underwater in ten years.
我的客户会告诉你我在乎
And my clients will tell you-- I do care.
也许吧
Maybe.
可如果你是绑♥架♥莉莉·萨瓦拉的幕后主使
But if you were behind Lily Zavala's kidnapping,
就是你让她做了那张地图
you made her generate that map,
所以你知道预测是错误的
so you'd know the projections are false.
我们调查了在那个地区售卖♥♥保险的人
We looked into who makes money selling insurance
谁会因为这张地图而获利
to that specific neighborhood affected by that map.
你的名字出现了很多次
Your name keeps coming up.
甚至这上面都写了 "亚当·布劳恩
It even says it over there: "Adam Braun,
连续四年最佳独♥立♥代理人"
leading independent agent four years in a row."
没人比你的名声更响亮
Yeah, no one comes close to the volume you do.
如果那个地方成为高风险区
And if that area becomes a high-risk zone,
就会强制所有人上洪水保险
flood insurance would become mandatory for everyone in it.
你将迎来数百项新政策的佣金
You'd be looking at commissions on hundreds of new policies.
那可是每年超过六位数的金额
That's over six figures a year.
轻松致富
Easy money.
没想到你把我想的这么坏
You think worse of me than I thought.
如果你认为我犯下绑♥架♥与谋杀罪
If you're suggesting I committed a kidnapping and a murder
仅仅是为了改变一张洪水地图
just so I could change a flood map,
那你一定是把我当成神经病了
you have to believe I'm some kind of psychopath.
证明我们是错的
Prove us wrong.
我们很肯定莉莉的绑♥架♥者
We're pretty sure Lily's kidnapper
在昨天上午杀死了他的同伙
killed his accomplice sometime early yesterday afternoon.