福尔摩斯：基本演绎法

Elementary S04E10

Part 5 Feb. 14, 2020, 9:34 a.m.

看他们能否调出监控录像
to see if they can pull surveillance.
要是证明是真的
If the story checks out,
尼耶维斯就不可能杀了莉莉·库珀
there's no way Nieves could've killed Lily Cooper.
还真有意思
That's pretty damn interesting.
怎么说
How so?
我正准备打给你呢
I was about to call you.
维克多·尼耶维斯就在局里
Victor Nieves just showed up here.
他自首了
Turned himself in.
两起谋杀他都承认了
He just confessed to both murders.
莉莉·库珀那边的员工好找了一阵
This took some finding on the part of Lily Cooper's staff,
但我解释了原由他们就帮忙了
but, uh... when I explained what it was for, they obliged.
那该让我动摇吗
That supposed to make me crack?
我已经说了我杀了她
I already said I killed her.
是你们的人不相信
It's you people who don't believe it.
不我们知道你没杀她
Oh, no, we know you didn't kill her.
我们已经知道她遇害时
We've already established that at the time of her murder
你正跟你的小女儿在游乐场的大茶杯里
you were spinning in an oversized teacup
转圈圈呢
with your little girl.
这照片不是给你看的是我要看
No, this photograph's not for you, it's for me.
我从来不喜欢跟人谈协议
I've never been a fan of cutting deals.
诉讼交易减刑
Plea bargains, reduced sentences, mm-mm.
我觉得这是间接助纣为虐
I think they're a necessary evil,
是淡薄司法公正
a dilution of justice.
我尤其不高兴它们能帮到谋杀犯
I'm especially displeased when they help murderers.
我确信你就是个谋杀犯
And I do believe that you're a murderer.
你上缴的武器上的弹道痕迹
The ballistics on the weapon that you surrendered
与丹尼斯·希克斯体内的子弹吻合
match the slugs pulled from Dennis Hicks.
所以
So...
我不想帮你
I don't want to help you.
但是
But...
她坚信你值得他人的帮助
she believed that you were deserving of other people's help.
她是个模范型的人
She was an exemplary human being.
所以由于我得坐在这里
So, as I sit here and I've got to try and persuade you
劝你供出威尔森·崔格换取减刑
to give up Wilson Trager in exchange for a deal...
这照片
it just, you know...
能帮我记起她
helps me to remember her.
什么威尔森
Wilson who?
根据你的假释记录来看
In your parole record, it seems like you were trying
你被释放后曾努力走上中规中矩的路
to walk the straight and narrow after your release from prison.
你完成了高中学业
You completed your high school diploma,
找了份稳定的工作
you held a steady job,
你上了费尔布里奇大学学习计算机
you enrolled at Fairbridge to study computers...
并申请了助学贷款
took out a student loan for that. Yep.
你还欠多少
How much did you owe?
七万五
75 grand.
崔格出多少钱雇你杀丹尼斯·希克斯
How much did Trager offer you to murder Dennis Hicks?
是希克斯招我入学的记得吗
Hicks was my recruiter, remember?
他劝我上了费尔布里奇大学
He talked me into going to Fairbridge.
跟我说了一堆谎话
Fed me a bunch of lies.
是我自己要杀他的
I killed him on my own.
你还承认
You also confessed
莉莉·库珀也是你自己要掐死的
to Lily Cooper's strangulation on your own?
崔格
Trager...
雇你杀了丹尼斯·希克斯
paid you to kill Dennis Hicks,
然后再次雇你
and then he paid you again
抗下了掐死莉莉·库珀的罪名
to take the fall for Lily Cooper's strangulation.
要是他把杀莉莉的事也承包了出去
Now, assuming that he contracted that out as well,
那你不仅是在保护他了
you're not only protecting him,
你还在保护真正杀她的人
but you're protecting the person who actually killed her.
为什么
Why?
因为我相信那个人也是迫不得已
'Cause I'm sure that guy didn't have no choice, either.
你为什么会那么想
Why on earth would you think that?
昨晚之前
Until last night,
我们一直假设威尔森·崔格只雇了一个杀手
we were assuming Wilson Trager only hired one killer.
但尼耶维斯承认杀了莉莉·库珀的事
But when Victor Nieves' confession to the murder
被戳穿后
of Lily Cooper was punctured,
我们意识到一定有两个杀手
we realized that there had to be two.
你觉得他是一个团伙的成员
Do you think he's part of a team?
更像是单独召集一些人
More likely a collection
来处理类似的事
of individuals with similar problems.
他似乎确信
He seemed convinced
他很了解第二个杀手的处境
he understood the second killer's circumstances.
为什么因为他相信他们的境遇相同
Why? Because he believes their circumstances to be the same.
我们仔细梳理了崔格的人生
We've been through Trager's life with a fine-tooth comb.
这人没有常见的犯罪纽带
Now, this guy doesn't have conventional criminal ties,
却在两周内成功雇到了两个杀手
yet he managed to hire two different killers in two weeks.
有可能是尼耶维斯知道
It's possible Nieves knows
杀死莉莉·库珀的凶手的身份
the identity of Lily Cooper's murderer,
但我觉得更像是他直觉上知道
but I think it's more likely that he intuitively understood
崔格是在哪找到的第二个杀手
where Trager found his second killer.
他是在从自己的学生名册里找人
He's getting them from his own student rolls.
他在一所盈利性大学的高位
His perch atop a for-profit college
让他有了获取特殊名单的权限
gives him access to a unique list:
那些争取改善人生的人
individuals who sought to improve their lot in life--
不少人还有着犯罪记录
many of them with criminal records--
现在多亏了他
who now, thanks to him,
能享有他们还不起的助学贷款了
are buckling under student loans they cannot repay.
这让他们随时可以被♥操♥控了
This makes them ripe for manipulation.
我们开始怀疑也许这两起谋杀
We started wondering, maybe these two murders
不是他第一次用这种方式来解决问题了
weren't the only times he solved his problems this way,
所以我们查了他过去其他的可疑事件
so we looked for other suspicious incidents in his past.
大约一年前学校的主校园
About a year ago, the college's main campus
因安全违规而被罚款了
was being fined for safety violations.
后来整件事不了了之
The whole thing got dropped
因为有人在建筑检查员的办公室放了把火
because of a fire in the building inspector's office.
所有的调查记录都没了
All the inspection records were lost,
市里只得重新开始
and the city had to start again.
在那之前一年崔格想买♥♥
A year before that, Trager wanted to buy
中♥央♥公园南部的一个合作社
a co-op on Central Park South.
不知为何委员会准备否决他
For whatever reason, the board was about to reject him--
后来握有关键一票的人在一起肇事逃逸中受伤了
until a swing vote was injured in a hit-and-run.
她让出了自己的席位因为无法再履行职责了
She resigned her spot, 'cause she could no longer fulfill her duties,
于是投票就顺了崔格的意
and the vote went Trager's way.
如果这家伙是幕后主使
Now, if this guy isn't behind it all,
那他真是史上最幸运的无辜旁观者了
he is the luckiest innocent bystander in history.
好吧假设你们是对的
All right, say you're right,
假设这人是黑帮分子我们要怎么证明
say the guy's a gangster, so how do we prove it?
维克多·尼耶维斯不会帮我们的
Victor Nieves isn't gonna help us.
现在我们知道要找什么了
Well, now that we know what we're looking for,
我们可以试着找出其他
we can try and identify other people
被崔格胁迫过的人
that Trager coerced.
查查这学校以前的学生
Look through the school's past students
看有谁符合要求
for people who fit the bill:
前科犯并拖欠了贷款
ex-cons who defaulted on their loans.
尼耶维斯的前科是盗窃
Nieves's priors were for burglary,
所以我们认为崔格也许是按技术
so we're thinking Trager may have chosen people
在选人的一个办公室纵火犯
based on their skills-- an arsonist for the office fire,
一个飙车手负责肇事逃逸
a wheelman for the hit-and-run.
尼耶维斯不肯松口但其他人也许会
Nieves won't flip; maybe someone else will.
费尔布里奇大学总得有多少
Fairbridge University has got to have what,
两万人吧
20,000 students?
那每年得有好几百个前科犯啊
That's got to be hundreds of ex-cons a year.
你觉得我们是在大海捞针
You think we're looking for a needle in a haystack.
的确是至少华生和马库斯是
We are. Or at least Watson and Marcus are.
你呢
What are you gonna do?
我嘛我总能找到最佳方式
Well, I've always found the best way
从大海里捞出针来
to come at a haystack is with a pitchfork.
早上七点开球台见
I'll see you on the tee at 7:00 a.M.
我想象过你是那种
You know, I imagined
会留个专用入口的人
you'd be the sort to have a private entrance,