所以我做了地理侧写
That's why I started working a geographical profile.
首先 我加入了犯罪现场距离
First things first, I factored in journey to crime distance.
如果你观察这里
If you look here,
就会发现波特兰这一区域
You'll see that this area of Portland
完全在预期的五英里地带之内
is well within the expected 5-mile radius.
我还加入了衰减距离这一因素
I also factored in distance of decay.
衰减距离有什么作用
What does distance have to do with decay?
通过这种地理侧写 可以测算
It's how geo-profilers measure relative probability
罪犯离开其安全区作案的可能性
of an offender traveling outside his comfort zone.
凶手一般都会选择他们熟悉的区域
Unsubs prefer to stay in an area that they know well.
就像你去上班或去健身房♥一样
Like you'd commute to work or to the gym.
犯罪现场越近 那就越可能靠近
The closer the crime scenes, the greater likelihood it is
不明嫌犯工作和生活的区域
That the unsub lives or works nearby.
经过我的算法
Based on my algorithm,
凶手应该生活在这个区域
the unsubs either live or work in the area.
你这个洗手池要换个垫片了
Your sink needs a new washer.
你这有垫片吗
You got a washer in here?
不 我又不为你工作
No. I don't work for you.
你确定吗 本
You sure about that, Ben?
也许我们该在家居百货干一票
Maybe we should do a home store run.
就在下面放个碗不行么
Just put a bowl underneath it.
拜托 懒惰可是人性的天敌 本
Aw, come on. Laziness is next to slothfulness, Ben.
高速路旁有个家居百货24小时营业
There's a 24-hour home store near the freeway.
别这样 各位
Come--come on, guys.
带上你钥匙
Get your keys.
不
No.
你在反对我吗
Are you back-talking me?
我只是不太想去
I just--I don't feel like going.
我才不管你怎么想
I don't care how you feel.
马上拿着钥匙走人
Now get your keys and let's go.
俄勒冈州 波特兰 凯伦·海伍德家
邻居很忧心
The neighborhood's very concerned.
警探 你的人排查过现场了吗
Detective, did your people process the crime scene?
我们希望你们来看看
We wanted you to take a look at it.
也许你能发现我们遗漏的东西
Maybe you'll see something we missed.
法医报告称
The M.E.'s report says
第二刀是致命伤
she died after the second stab wound
因为伤到了大动脉
because they hit an artery.
其它伤口都没有流血
The other wounds didn't bleed.
为什么还要再捅38刀
So why inflict 38 more?
我们认为可能是团伙作案
We see it sometimes with groups.
每个人都感觉还有别人牵扯在内
The fact that others are involved
所以都将自己的暴♥力♥行为合理化
helps each of them rationalize their own violent behavior.
就像曼森和达福尔的种族屠♥杀♥
Like Manson and the genocide in Darfur.
不明嫌犯很享受杀戮的快♥感♥
These unsubs like the feeling of killing.
肾上腺素大量释放让他们很爽
They get a high from the adrenaline release.
但被害人一旦停止挣扎
Yeah, but that lasts only as long
这种快♥感♥就会戛然而止
as the victim keeps struggling.
这次案件有所不同
That's not what happened here.
强森先生从后门
So Mr. Johnson exits the nightclub
离开夜店上车
through the back door to get to his car.
也许其中一名嫌犯在那边
Maybe one unsub can watch from over there
还有一名在后面
and the other from back there.
他走到这 另一名嫌犯用管子袭击他
Then when he gets here, another unsub hits him with a pipe
于是杀戮开始了
and it's game on.
看这些小瓶子 里德
Look at the vials, Reid.
这小巷里毒品横行
This is a drug corridor.
这也说明为什么会过度杀害
That would explain why there's so much overkill.
也许他们都吸毒了
Maybe they were on something.
我在飞机上查了这家夜店
On the jet I did some research into the club.
一年前有人在这里吸毒过量
A year ago, someone O.D.'d inside.
自那以后新店家严格限制派对
Since then, new management's clamped down on the partying.
那不明嫌犯很可能转移到这一带来
Which means the unsubs most likely fit in to this area.
要是里面不能狂欢
Well, if you can't party inside,
就只好到外面来了
then you come out out here.
他们可能都差不多大
They're probably all the same age.
对 二十来岁
Yeah, mid-20s.
我去后面看了
I checked the back.
平面屏 台式电脑 还有自行车
There's a flat-screen, a desktop, and a bicycle.
如果这帮人只想找可以典当的东西
Now, if this group's going for pawnable items,
为什么拿走百合花相框和其它琐碎的东西
why take a picture of a lily and other random things?
也许没时间了
Maybe they ran out of time.
这里附近可没什么人
It's not a busy neighborhood.
电视机被固定住了吗
Is the TV bolted down?
没 这帮人可以拿走
No. So a group of unsubs would have grabbed it.
会不会其实只有一个人
What if we're looking for a single unsub?
你觉得地上的脚印是一个人的吗
You think all these footprints were made by one person?
这么无组织的一帮人不会
A group so disorganized wouldn't do something
如此有组织到统一穿鞋
as hyper-organized as wearing the same shoe.
我认为不是一帮人
No, I don't think it's a group.
我觉得只有一个疯狂杀手
I think it's one very erratic killer.
我跟摩根说
I'll let Morgan know.
你确定当晚没见到一伙人
You're sure you didn't see a group here that night?
没 只有一个女人和另外几个人
No. Just that woman and a few other people,
没有团伙
But no groups.
我们有监控录像 你可以自己看
Look, if our cameras worked, you could see for yourself.
停车场里会不会有这样的团伙
Is it possible there was a group out in the parking lot?
这里很冷清 那么晚了没什么人
It's a ghost town. Nothing happens here that late.
好吧 说说你在哪里看到凯伦
All right, tell me where you saw Karen first.
她买♥♥了点曲奇饼
She was buying cookies,
然后就去结账了
and then she went to the register.
还有别的顾客没
Any other customers there?
还有个人在另一个售货口
There was one at the other checkout.
那么晚了怎么还开两个售货口
Why would you have 2 registers open that time of night?
有个很奇怪的男人自言自语
There was this weird guy, mumbling to himself
对着空气挥动胳膊好像有人在骚扰他
and swatting the air like someone was bugging him.
能在这里帮我结账吗
Can you ring me up over here?
没问题
No problem.
这个人长什么样
What did this guy look like?
和一般白人男子差不多
Regular white dude.
油头粉面 买♥♥了盐
Greasy. He was buying salt,
薯片 水
bag of chips, water.
这个人和凯伦有接触吗
Did this guy and Karen interact?
我想问你个问题
I have a hypothetical for you.
他对她说了点什么 但她没搭理他
He said something to her, but she blew him off.
低头轻轻回了两句嘴吗
Just put her head down and said something dismissive back?
对 差不多那样
Yeah, that's it. Yeah.
不认识的人跟我们说话我们习惯如此
We tend to do that when strange people talk to us.
不幸地是可能导致悲剧
Unfortunately, it can backfire.
霍奇 你说对了 他是独自一人
Yeah, Hotch. You were right. He was by himself,
但他行为很诡异 好像他身后有人
But he was acting strange, like he was being followed.
里德和西维尔去了夜店发现
Reid and Seaver went to the club and found that
第一名死者的被害现场是一处吸毒场所
the first victim was killed in an area of high drug use.
如果他有幻觉 可能是五氯苯酚[致幻药]
If he's hallucinating, it could be pcp.
所以他会从凯伦家里乱拿东西
That would explain why he stole random things from Karen's place.
他正缺"货"呢
He was out of it.
也解释了乱砍尸体的行为模式
And the erratic patterns in the stabbing.
过度杀害很可能是
The adrenaline rush from the drugs
肾上腺素分泌导致
is probably behind the overkill.
说吧 加西亚
Go ahead, Garcia.
我查过所有当地典当行
Ok, I checked all the local pawn shops
看有没有失窃物品出现
to see if any of those stolen items had shown up there.
一无所获
I'm coming up empty.
也许他拿东西去换了毒品
Maybe he's trading the goods for drugs.
"他"是什么意思 不是一伙人吗
What do you mean, he? We're talking about a group, right?
不 我们判定是单人作案的瘾君子
No, we think it's a solo addict
但他幻想自己不是一个人
who's hallucinating that he's not alone.
这可是个本质改变
Wow. That is a game-changer.
多谢
Thanks.
本 你到底在等什么
What in hell are you waiting for? Ben!
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