数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S03E08

Part 2 Jan. 31, 2024, 8:09 p.m.

is given over to this crunching
统计棒球数据了？
of baseball stats?
不告诉你
I'll never tell.
这东西很厉害啊
This stuff is pretty wild.
很好的转点识别
Very cool changepoint detection.
你能知道
Do you recognize the person
是谁做出的公式吗？
who might have done this work?
给我点时间
Give me a little time.
如果这家伙对虚拟棒球
If this person is active in fantasy baseball
或者赛伯计量学在行的话
or sabermetrics,
我有线索查明他是谁
I'll find somebody who knows who he is.
太好了
Good.
他说过有人想利用他
He said people wanted to use him.
Vick每次赢球都是倍受压力的
Vick's been under pressure to win all his life.
每人都想分上一羹
They were all after a piece of him--
教练俱乐部主席球迷
coaches, owners, fans.
在球队里他有什么亲近的人吗？
Was he particularly close to anyone in the organization?
没有教练和其他球员
No. Coaches and the other players
根本就不在乎他
didn't give a damn about him.
只在乎他赢的球
Only what he could do for the team.
唯一真正关心他的人
The only person that really cared about him
是他的经纪人 Richard Clast
was his agent, Richard Clast.
Vick很信任他说他并不是
Yeah, Vick trusted him. Said he wasn't looking
为了来发大财的
for a quick buck.
他的目标很长远
He was thinking long-term.
Vick有什么打算吗？
And what were Vick's prospects?
这是他合同的最后一年
This was the last year on his contract.
其他球队都不要他
No other teams were interested
因为他有肩伤
in picking him up because he hurt
并且膝盖做过两次手术
his shoulder, plus the two knee surgeries.
他需要重整旗鼓
He needed to get his game back up.
他说现在挣的钱
He said the money he made now
够我们再用40年
would need to last us the next 40 years.
有谁想伤害他吗？
Was there anyone that would have wanted to hurt him?
他有什么敌人吗？
Did he have any enemies?
他死了谁都没好处
No one stood to gain if he died.
Vick能比赛才有价值
Vick was only valuable if he was playing ball.
你知道他从哪里得到的药？
Do you know where he got the drugs?
Askhis队的教练们
Askhis coaches.
对他们而言
To them,
他只是一部机器
he was just a piece of equipment.
我们没给他们类固醇
We don't give them steroids,
也不会告诉他们要服什么药
and we don't tell them what drugs to take.
但如果他们用药的话你就赚了
But if they use, you benefit.
他们都是成人自己做决定
These are grown men. They make their own choices.
如果他们用药不被发现的话
And, if they don't get caught
你就睁一只眼闭一只眼
or busted, you turn a blind eye.
除非是联盟要求
We don't test players
否则我们不会对球员药检
unless the league says we have some reason to.
我们也尽量不去凭空猜疑
Otherwise, we try not to get into hypotheticals.
显然从未有过
Which is never.
即便是以前坐了225场冷板凳
Even when a guy who usually benches 225
现在居然能上了350场的人
is suddenly pushing 350.
球队在糟蹋Vick
The team screwed Vick.
他让球队6连胜
He gives them six great years,
他在比赛中肩膀受伤
he plays through an injured shoulder
就因为让他滑行抢垒
'cause they need him for a stretch drive,
他差点成了残疾
then he ends up on the disabled list.
他这么拼命是想
I understand he was working very hard
回到联盟球队吗？
to get back in the majors?
是的并且他能行的
Yeah. He would have made it, too.
很好谢谢
These are good. Thank you.
Vick是个很厉害的家伙
Vick was the real deal.
很了不起的人了不起的棒球队员
Great guy, and a great baseball player.
你知道他在服用类固醇吗？
Did you know he was taking steroids?
他说那只是为了有更好的成绩
(sighs) He said it was just until he could get his numbers back up.
谢谢
Thank you.
很多球员不时会服药
Most players use now and again.
任何时候
I'd say, at any given time,
大约有25%
25% of them.
这关系到Vick的下一个合同
This was about Vick's next contract.
这可至关重要
It was now or never.
谢谢 -大家都说
Thank you. Some would say
棒球会让你重生
that there is life after baseball.
真的？Vick有什么选择呢？
Really? What were Vick's options?
他高中时就开始打球了
He was drafted out of high school.
他没有其他的工作来养家糊口
It wasn't like he had another career he could fall back on.
幸运的话他可以当JC队的教练
He'd be lucky to get a job making
赚到3万3一年
33K a year coaching some JC team.
你见过他妻子觉得那一点钱她会留下来吗？
You met his wife. Think she was going to stick around for that?
嘿能等一会儿吗
Hey, can you just give me one second?
我马上就来
I'll be right with you.
好的
Great.
他的孩子怎么样？
What about his kids?
他们很崇拜棒球英雄父亲
They worshiped their baseball hero father.
你觉得他们会去崇拜卖♥♥♥车♥的人吗？
You think they're going tolook up to some used car salesman?
我不知道我觉得他妻子十分关心他
I don't know. I thought the wife really seemed to care about him.
也许是我刻薄
Well, I might be cynical,
但我见过很多妻子
but I've seen an awfullot of wives
在丈夫没钱的时候走人
move on after the baseball money dries up.
那么经纪人呢？
And the agents?
为客户服务是我的工作
It's my job to take care of my clients,
让他们打球并且赚钱
to keep them playing and making money
只要他们行的话
as long as they can.
很显然我得重视他们的健康保持
Obviously, I have to care about their health and well-being.
但是Vick却不同
But with Vick, it was different.
他是我的好朋友之一
He was actually one of my best friends.
Waldie教授四处打听了一下
Professor Waldie sent out queries,
询问虚拟联赛玩家
asking fantasy league players
是否见过类似的东西
if they've seen similar work
并且发现了这个
and this is what we got back.
嗯从哪里找到的？
Hmm. Where'd this come from?
一个叫boxscoretimes.com的网站
A Web site called boxscoretimes.com.
全是统计学的狂热者
It's for real stats fanatics.
看看就知道这出自一人之手
Well, just looking at it, I mean it's gotta be the same guy.
这些缩写都是一样的
Right? The abbreviations are identical.
但这里他做了解释
Only here, he explains what they stand for.
DB是击球距离 EJ是轨道高度
DB-- Distance Batted. EJ-- Elevation of Trajectory.
TB是挥棒
TB-- Thrown Bats.
挥棒？这家伙是谁？
Thrown Bats? Who is this guy?
Oswald Kittner 他参加了6场
Oswald Kittner. He plays in 16
高赌注的虚拟联赛
high-stakes fantasy leagues.
Kittner 好的我去告诉FBI
Kittner. Okay. I'm gonna go tell the FBI.
我现在知道了缩写的意思
Now that I know what these abbreviations mean,
我也许可以发现这些方程
I may be able to determine
是否能揭示出投毒的原因
whether this math really does reveal drug use.
谢谢先生们
So, thank you, gentlemen.
有人搜查了Kittner的公♥寓♥
Someone gave Kittner's apartment a going over.
我们没有找到电脑
We didn't find the computer.
他去了什么地方？或工作之类的？
Well, has he shown up anywhere? At work? Anything?
他没有工作 25岁高中辍学
He's unemployed. We got a 25-year-old
没有银行账号♥
high school dropout with no bank accounts,
没有车没有犯罪记录
no car, no criminal record.
看更邻居所有人都几天没有见到他了
Super, neighbors, no one's seen him for a couple of days.
也许他涉嫌勒索如果不是的话
Might be a blackmailer, but if not,
他也和此事有关
his works' definitely involved somehow.
难以置信这个叫Kittner的人
Incredible. This Kittner person
彻底改造了Shiryayev-Roberts的转点识别方程
has basically reinvented the Shiryayev-Roberts
用来查明类固醇的使用
changepoint detection procedure to pinpoint steroid use.
并且不需要药检
And without the need for medical tests.
这真是个重要的衍生功能啊