数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S02E12

Part 4 Jan. 31, 2024, 8:07 p.m.

Now what you're seeing is
一个行为序列分♥析♥
a behavioral sequence analysis.
是过去四年内
It's a sequential representation
枪击事件的序列表示
of shootings over the past four years.
这对我们有什么用？
And what does it get us?
这种动态图表
Well,this kind of dynamic graph
是一个很好的预测工具
is an amazingly good predictor
我叫它枪击链
of what I've been calling
枪击链？
shooting chains.
枪击链
Shooting chains?
枪击间的联♥系♥
Shootings that are linked--
一个和另一个另一个和另外一个
one to the next,then to the next.
你是说报复袭击
You mean retaliation shootings.
我们已经知道这些了
We already know about all those.
我要说的是
Well,what I'm saying is
也许我们
that it might be possible
可以据此找到
to follow these shooting chains
初始者
back to the original shooter.
没有证人
Without witnesses
没有证词？
and without testimony?
想象一个布满
Visualize a tabletop
多米诺骨牌的桌面
covered with dominos.
第一个倒下的多米诺
The first domino to fall is
就是枪击链的开始
the start of a shooting chain.
枪击链可以很短
Shooting chains can be short,
枪击链可以很长
shooting chains can be long.
有的枪击链引发了
Some shooting chains initiate
一些分支枪击链
other branching chains.
现在我们看到的就是
Now we're looking at these
事后的枪击链
shooting chains after the fact,
所有多米诺都倒下后的
after all the dominos have fallen.
重建这些链条
And reconstructing these chains
会很难
is going to be difficult.
但是有种方法
But there is a way.
运用分级网络图表
By using hierarchical network graphs
和泊松集聚
in combination with poisson clumping,
我们可以找到背景
we can work our way backwards,
找到开始的那块多米诺
back to the original dominos
那个开始链条的多米诺
that started the chain.
也就是说我们可以找到始发者
Which means we could identify the inciters--
就是暴♥力♥倾向更大的分子
gang members most prone to violence.
对
That's correct.
如果我们把他们
And if we could somehow remove them
从链条中拿出来
from the loop...
理论上
theoretically,
我们就可以阻止未来的袭击
we stop future shootings.
看来你懂了就是这样
You got it. That's it.
哦很有趣的演讲
Well,that's an interesting notion.
有趣
Interesting,
不过你好像不怎么感兴趣
yet you don't seem interested.
这里有个优先的问题
Well,it's a matter of priorities.
这些枪击事件的18%
18 percent of these shootings
杀死或伤害
killed or injured
了周围的旁观者
innocent bystanders.
我想有的只有
I think some of those people
10来岁
were ten years old.
35%的受害者
35 percent of the victims
只有16岁甚至更小
were 16 years old or younger.
是的我知道
Yeah,I know.
我到过现场
I'm at those crime scenes,
我也不喜欢
and I don't like it.
但是不管我们抓进去多少
But no matter how many gangbangers we pull in,
还是会出现更多
more are gonna come to take their place.
坦白说对大多数人来说
And frankly,to most people,
阻止坏人
stopping bad guys
杀坏人
from killing bad guys
不是我们的主要任务
isn't a major priority.
耶再说一次
Yeah,again,
有些枪击
some of these shootings
累及到无辜的群众
involve innocent people.
好了 charlie 嗨... - 好了
All right,charlie,hey... -that's fine.
对不起没什么
Excuse me. That's fine.
嗯
You know,you'll just
要是我觉得
have to forgive me
一个数学家不能
if I feel that citywide gang
阻止整个城市的帮派火拼
violence isn't something
的话请你包含
that one mathematician can stop.
我要走了
I'm gonna have to run.
我还要给下一个小队作报告
Brief the next team.
我一会后再跟你谈
I'll talk to you later,all right? Look,
我不是来这里
hey...hey,I'm not here
跟人吵架的
to start trouble with anyone.
听着听着
Listen,listen,all right?
我们集中在
Let's just concentrate
rhimes的案子上好吧
on rhimes for now,okay?
你要理解人家他已经干了
You got to give the guy a break. He's been at this for,
大概20多年了
you know,over 20 years now.
我们计划成立一个家庭
We were planning a family.
就在anton结束
It was gonna happen
卧底任务后
right after anton's undercover
我很抱歉
I'm really sorry.
有趣的是
It's funny,you know,
他这几个月
he hasn't been home
都没回来过...
all that much these last few months,so...
现在他不在身边
not having him around,
我也没什么不适应的
it really hasn't hit me yet.
我来是想问你几个问题
I was hoping I could ask you a couple of questions.
好的
Sure.
你丈夫最近几周有没有提及
Has your husband mentioned being
他怕某人
afraid of anyone or anything
或者别的什么
in the last couple of weeks?
anton 害怕？
Anton afraid?
他就没这个基因
He didn't have the gene.
都是我在担心这个担心那个
I'm the one who did the worrying.
也就是说他从没提及
So he never mentioned anyone.
我们最近很少交谈
We didn't talk very much lately.
我说过的他不在
Like I said,he hasn't been around.
我在读建筑学的最后一年
I'm in my last year of architecture school,
功课
and there just
很紧
never seemed to be enough time.
我理解
I understand.
但我知道他很兴奋
But I could tell he was excited.
每当他快成功时
You know,he'd get that way
他就很兴奋
whenever he was getting close.
我觉得他调查的人
I think the people he was after
开始信任他了
were starting to trust him,
开始让他做决定了
starting to let him make decisions.
我甚至
I can't even
不能给他一个葬礼
give him the funeral he deserves.
不能光荣的埋葬他
Can't even bury him with honor,
因为他们还不想暴露他的身份
because they still don't want to blow his cover.
干♥你♥们这行很难
It's quite a job you have.
又是一个联邦调查局的任务
This is another fbi project,
从资料上来看
judging from the references
是枪击犯罪
to firearm violence.
是的一个FBI探员被杀
Yeah,well,an fbi agent was killed.
我想找到杀人动机
I'm trying to identify possible motives.
通过鉴别所有这些联♥系♥
By identifying all the links
和模式是么？
and patterns,is that it?
涉及的谋杀太多了
So many of these murders are connected
我没办法