数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S05E02

Part 2 Feb. 6, 2024, 9:23 a.m.

gonna take you far, but, uh,
没人会无缘无故由抢6位数的珠宝
nobody moves from six-figure jewelry hits
转去干低端暴♥力♥犯罪的
to low-take thugging for no reason.
肯定有什么遗漏了
We're missing some pieces.
不过象这样的家伙
But a guy like this-
肯定会有
there's always an ex-cellmate
一位前搭档
or a known associate
或者已知的伙伴帮助的
somewhere in the picture.
听起来还得做很多乏味的调查工作
Yeah- it sounds like a lot of grunt work.
没错
Yes, it does.
不知道谁会倒霉
I wonder who's gonna get stuck with that.
这种事大概
It'd probably be
得"资深人士"干吧
a seniority thing, I think.
嗯
Hmm.
那样一下子就资深了
That's going to get old fast.
是啊对你可能会
Yeah, maybe for you it will.
此时此刻枪击案的真♥相♥
MAN The facts of the shooting are still
仍在调查之中
under investigation at this point in time,
但看来本案与... - 嘿你来得正好
but it appears to be connected to... - Hey, hey, I'm glad you're here.
我在看新闻然后我看到...
So, I'm watching the news here, and I see these...
我是说这是你负责的吧?
I mean, is this your case?
嗯
Yeah.
我知道你不能说
I know you can't talk about it.
你看到什么就是什么
Just what you see there.
它让我想起...
It occurred to me-
呃...无聊的想法啦
and-and, you know, it's just an idle thought-
逐点法分♥析♥
that a point-by-point
用我给你们
analysis, using the math
归纳的数学方法...
that I've already refined for you guys...
你们把数据填进去
You just plug that data in
然后运算一下
and-and run with it.
嗯我们做了 - 是么?
Yeah, we're already on that. You are?
嗯 - 那就好
Mm-hmm. Good.
我们也多少线索
I mean, they aren't leaving us much.
还得上街去抓他们
We're gonna have to get them on e street.
那也不用等着再来一宗案子的吧?
Doesn't that mean that you're waiting
或是设个圈套
for another victim? Or a decoy.
我是说我们可以派10个 20个或是30个女的上街去
I meanwe could put ten, 20, 30 women out there.
看他们会不会找一个作案
See if maybe they pick one up.
在营销学里
You know, in marketing,
这叫做陷阱效应
there's something called the decoy effect.
就跟你出去
It's like when you went out
买♥♥你看好的表一样
to buy that watch you got on there.
你要在两只表里挑
You had a choice between a more expensive,
一只是高端的防水的抗磨的
higher-end, waterproof,
带转速计的表不过贵一点
scratch-resistant watch with a tachometer,
一只不那么贵只能看时间用的
and a less expensive watch that does nothing but tell time.
你决定买♥♥哪只
And you made your choice
取决于你如何♥平♥衡性价比
by how you balance function and cost.
这么说吧还有第三种表
But let's say, a third watch is put on the market.
更贵但是没有转速计
More expensive, but no tachometer.
大多数买♥♥家会被原来那只吸引住
Most buyers will gravitate toward the original,
那只高端的也不管之前自己的心头好是哪只了
higher-end product, regardless of their prior preference.
那么第三只表就是圈套
So, that third watch is the decoy.
它存在的唯一用处
It exists solely
就是操控买♥♥家买♥♥贵的
to steer buyers to the bigger sale.
这就叫非对称优势啦 - 然后?
And that's called asymmetric dominance. So, how...?
然后你们不能就这么把
Well, you can't just put targets out on the street
你们想让绑匪下手的目标撒到街上去
that you want kidnappers to attack.
你们得创造条件让他们乐于下手
You can create conditions that make them more desirable.
巡逻车的分布啦
A stribution of police patrols,
监测点啦...
inspection points-
我知道这些事你们通常是会做的
I mean, this is stuff you would normally do anyway,
不过是没有经过一系列计算...
except funneled through a series of algorithmic...
这事Larry或Amita能做么?
You think it's something Larry or Amita could do?
嗯我不大确定我...
Well, yeah. No, sure. I...
当然 Larry跟Amita本事也不小...
Sure. Larry and Amita are very, highly skilled...
我...我是说我能写几条
I just... I'm just saying that I could come up
非常简单的表达式
with some very loose expressions
帮助他们往正确方向走
and give them a push in the right direction.
嘿你认识那个
Hey, so, what do you know
FBI安全官
about this FBI Security Officer,
McGowan么?
uh, McGowan?
Carl?
Carl?
嗯 Carl McGowan
Yeah, Carl McGowan.
他是不大容易过关不过还算公正
He's tough, but-but he's fair.
越难过关就越公平?
More tough, more fair?
你没事的
You know, you'll be fine.
我要的可不是这个答案
That's not an answer.
是的 Eppes
Yeah. Eppes.
我们发出了5个郡的警报
We put out a five-county alert
寻找符合我们受害者的失踪人口报告
for any missing persons reports that match our victim profile.
我从今天的开始
I started with today's, figuring these guys
发现这些家伙一次只选一个受害者
don't snatch more than one vic at a time.
Popped Janet Gerber
Popped Janet Gerber,
好莱坞健康维护组织的业务经理
office manager at an HMO in Hollywood.
4点半下班 8点被报失踪
Left her job at 4:30, reported missing at 8:00.
挺快的
That's pretty fast.
新闻让人人心惊胆战
News has everyone on edge.
她正符合我们的侧写
She is right in the sweet spot of our profile.
女性 25岁中等收入
Female, 25, middle income.
还是... - 是的
Still... Yeah, I wouldn't have
如果没有进一步发现的话
dragged you back here
我也不会半夜把你叫来
in the middle of the night if there wasn't more.
他妈的
Oh, damn.
他们的犯罪手法浮现了
Their M.O. holds up,
他们会丢弃货车
they'll dump the van, switch
再换成邮车
to a delivery truck again.
是的更不显眼容易掌握
Right, sure. Blends in more, easier to control, or...
我在考虑媒体发布会
I'm thinking, press conference, right?
在新闻上放上她的照片
Put her face on the news.
也许这些家伙会害怕放她走
Maybe these guys get rattled, let her go.
在事情败露之前
Only when things went bad before,
他们才不会这么做呢
that's exactly what they didn't do.
我要找什么?
What am I looking for?
信♥用♥卡♥帐单银行通知
Credit card bills, bank statements-
一切能帮我们找到她的东西
anything that might help us track her.
她在6点之后就没回家
She's never home past 6:00.
但当我打电♥话♥报♥警♥时我还在希望...
But when I called the police, I was hoping...
接着他们就告诉我如果我告诉你们他会杀了她的
Then they told me they'd kill her if I called you,
但我已经打了
but I already had.
他们告诉你的是怎么帮他们
They're going to tell you what helps them,
而不是怎么帮Janet
not what's going to help Janet.
你做了正确的事
You did the right thing.
Janet不鲁莽
Janet isn't reckless.
她要去哪儿都很小心
She's careful about where she goes.
她对周围的事情都很留心
She pays attention to everything around her.
如果他们能把你从街上抓走
If they can just grab you off the street,
毫无原因的
no rhyme or reason...
你怎么才能保护自己呢
...how do you protect yourself from that?
电视上那个女人他们杀了她
The woman on the TV- they killed her.
之前的那些
The ones before-
他们打她们
they beat them,
他们强♥奸♥她们
they raped them.
我们会做力所能及的一切
We're going to do everything in our power
把Janet完美地带回来
to bring Janet back here safely.
嘿伙计们谢谢你们能来
Hey, guys, thanks for stepping up here, huh?
是的我们得抓紧时间了
Yeah, well, we're still getting up to speed.
呃不对称支配是很基本的东西
Um, asymmetric dominance is pretty basic stuff.
是的但Charlie对其的适用
Yeah, but Charlie's applications of it
可绝不基本