政客

The Politician S02E06

Part 2 June 26, 2020, 9:02 a.m.

谷歌♥搜索
水汽
steam."
石头剪刀布能作弊吗
然后
And...
发送
send.
真是对不起他是我的掌上明珠
Oh, so sorry. He is the apple of my eye.
好吧好吧
Okay, Okay.
我提议
I propose...
用石头剪刀布来决定
rock paper scissors.
什么
What?
-真的吗 -真的
- Really? - Really.
我们现实一点
I mean, let's be honest.
赛跑你是赢不了的
You're not gonna win a footrace...
用作弊佩顿的做硬币也赢不了
...or flipping a cheater-Payton coin.
我们用传统的猜拳来决定吧
Let's do the old roshambo!
三局两胜
Best two out of three.
-现在吗 -不不不星期五中午
- Right now? - No, no, no, no. Friday, at noon,
这样我们有足够的时间
so we have enough time
邀请摄影团队和媒体
to invite the camera crews and the press.
做成一个大活动
Make it a big event.
这事太荒唐了
I mean, this is so ridiculous,
但我们可以用它搞个大新闻
but let's make it a thing.
来吧会很有趣的
Come on! It'll be fun.
民♥主♥万岁万岁万万岁
Yay, democracy, yay, yay, yay!
好成交
Okay. Deal.
成交
Deal.
大政♥治♥家
第二季第六集
一定有技巧
There's an angle.
你怎么知道
How do you know?
因为哈达莎绝对不会提出
Because Hadassah would never suggest
石头剪刀布这种非传统的方式
something as out of the box as rock paper scissors
除非她知道某种技巧她是个善于算计
unless she had an angle. She is a calculating...
无情的投机取巧之人我知道
merciless operator, and I know that
因为我也是个善于算计无情的投机取巧之人
because I'm a calculating, merciless operator,
我绝对不会提出
and I would never suggest
用依靠概率的游戏来决定整个选举
a game of chance to decide an entire election
除非我知道这我能操纵游戏机制
unless I knew I could game the system.
我们应该找一个私家调查员
We should hire a private investigator
和一个精神分♥析♥团队
and a team of psychiatrists
给迪迪·斯丹迪施做心理侧写
to do a psychological profile on Dede Standish
来判断她最有可能做出的选择
to determine which option she's most likely to play.
她给我感觉像个喜欢剪刀的女性
She strikes me as a scissors kind of gal.
我们没有时间做那些好吗
We don't have time for any of that, okay?
我们不应该分♥析♥对手而应该分♥析♥游戏本身
We can't analyze the player, we need to analyze the game.
我们要怎么做
How do we do that?
我们需要找一个专家
We need to talk to an expert.
好吧里卡多你好
Okay. Uh, hi, Ricardo.
你看起来气色不错
You're-- You're looking really good.
见到你很高兴
It's good to see you.
你是不是瘦了
Uh, did you lose weight?
我们听说你在里面排音乐剧
We heard that you were doing theater in here.
真不错
That's nice.
《红男绿女》
Guys and Dolls.
但我们不得不取消演出
But we had to cancel the show
因为那个演阿德莱德小姐的哥们
'cause the guy playing Miss Adelaide
捅了那个演南森·底特律的哥们
shanked the guy playing Nathan Detroit.
这种事大概也不是第一次发生了
Probably not the first time something like that's happened.
英菲尼蒂怎么样了
How's Infinity?
她说过要来看我但是
She told me she was gonna come visit, but...
她肯定很忙
she must be real busy.
她很好
She's-- She's great.
她写了一本书
She, um-- She wrote a book.
我们可以给你带一本
We'd be happy to get you a copy.
或录音如果你更喜欢听书的话
On tape, if you prefer.
她现在正忙着拯救地球呢
Now she's busy, uh, saving the planet.
闲聊就到这里吧
Enough of the chitchat.
我们需要你的帮助
We need your help.
教我们怎么才能赢石头剪刀布
Teach us how to win at rock paper scissors.
猜拳
Roshambo.
你们来对地方了
You came to the right place.
在监狱里猜拳决定生死
On the inside, roshambo is life.
所有事都是通过猜拳来决定的
Everything's decided through roshambo:
财产争端
property disputes,
评判宿仇
settling beefs.
这方胜
Winner!
甚至还有由狱警组织以赌博为目的的
There's even underground games that the guards organize
地下猜拳活动
for gambling purposes.
你们知道吗
You wanna know something?
我喜欢呆在监狱里
I like being in prison.
在外面我什么也不是
Out in the world, I'm nobody.
只是个流氓
Just some punk
没有工作不过留着漂亮的小胡子
with no job and a cool mustache.
但在这里
But in here,
我就像一个公爵
I'm like a duke
或贵族
or a lord
或别的什么
or something.
你们知道为什么吗
You know why?
因为我研究出了
Because I figured out the secret
猜拳战无不胜的秘诀
to always win at roshambo.
石头剪刀布
There is no strategy
没有什么策略
to rock paper scissors.
-纯粹是靠运气 -这话你跟
- It's a game of chance. - Tell that to the researchers
中国理论物理国家重点实验室的
of the China State Key Laboratory
研究人员说去
for Theoretical Physics.
他们写了一篇关于人类在非竞争性
They wrote a paper on how humans make decisions
非合作性的战略行为中
in non-competitive,
-如何决策的论文 -说人话哈达莎
- noncooperative, strategic actions. - English, Hadassah.
他们找了几百个学生
They had a few hundred students
让他们每人玩了60次剪刀石头布
play 60 games of rock paper scissors each
来观察是否有规律可循
to see if any patterns emerged.
你猜怎么着
And, guess what?
还真有
They did.
我解出了密♥码♥
I cracked the code.
我刚来的时候
When I first got here,
故作冷漠沉默
I played it real cool and quiet.
石头剪刀布
Roshambo!
双手插袋避免眼神接触
Hands in pockets, no eye contact,
从不接受别人的好处
never say yes to a favor.
但我会观察
But what I did do is watch.
从那时起我发现了规律
And that's when I started noticing patterns.
男人总是会先出石头
Men almost always start with a rock.
这是显而易见的
Of course they do.
这是他们对所有事情的解决方法
It's their solution to everything:
用暴♥力♥使对方屈服
just bash it into submission.
但假设佩顿
But assuming Payton starts
先出石头
with rock,
那么我们在第一轮会赢
that means we win round one,
但规则是三局两胜
but this is best two out of three.
有趣的地方就在这
Well, here's where it gets juicy.
研究表明
Research found...
如果玩家赢了一轮
that if a player wins a round...
他们更有可能在下一轮中作出同样的选择
...they're more likely to play the same play the next round.
所以如果你出布赢了
So, if you win with paper,
你会自我感觉良好
you're feeling good about yourself,
而且你想保持这种很好的感觉
and you wanna keep feeling good,
所以你会下意识地继续出布
so you unconsciously choose paper again.
好吧那如果第一轮的败方怎么样
Okay, so what happens to the loser's play after they lose?
如果他们接连输了两局
If they lose two in a row,
他们会对打败自己的东西耿耿于怀
they get fixated on what's beating them,
所以他们会换成能打败那个打败了他们的选项
so they switch to the thing that will beat what just beat them.
什么玩意
What?