投行风云（2020）

首先 你需要让我们收♥购♥这家银行
First, you need to let us buy this bank.
商务大臣会认为
The business secretary is going to reason
腾德与像伊本·鲍尔这样的欧洲银行合并是反竞争的
that Tender's merger with a European bank like IBN Bauer is anti-competitive.
欧洲银行和金融科技部门的整合
Consolidation of the banking and fintech sectors across Europe.
是的 但我们不会那样向丽莎推销
Yeah, well, we don't sell it to Lisa like that.
我们向她及监管机构推销
We sell it to her and the regulator
将其描述为消费者获得新选择
as the consumer being given a fresh choice,
摆脱僵化的机构
away from fossilized institutions,
甚至可能是英国脱欧后
and maybe even an opportunity for a postBrexit relationship
与欧洲银行业建立关系的机会
with the European banking sector.
我们不谈脱欧
We don't talk about Brexit.
是的 听着 没人相信我们能成为下一个硅谷
Yeah, look, nobody believes we can be the next Silicon Valley.
没人相信我们能吸引那种规模的外国直接投资
Nobody believes that we can attract that kind of direct foreign investment
因为你们政♥府♥的过度监管
because of your government's over-regulation.
过去一个月 我每天在这些楼层走动
Every day for the past month, I've walked these floors,
与我们的团队一起工作 我从未如此强烈地感到
and working with our team, I have never felt more strongly
这是我们成为新领域真正领导者的机会
that this is our chance to be a genuine leader in a new frontier.
你们可以主导它
You guys can own it.
让腾德帮助你们帮助政♥府♥ 推动合并通过
Let Tender help you help the government. Push through the merger.
我们100%净空头
We're 100 percent net short.
昙花一现的潮流 长♥期♥输家 五到十个核心空头
Fads, secular losers, five to ten core shorts
辅以较小的卫星仓位 并进行行业层面的叠加配置
with smaller satellite positions and sector overlay.
持仓太集中 你可能因为一个仓位就被击垮
Running that concentrated, you could get taken out by one position.
市场波动太大
The market's way too volatile
这等于是下了一个巨大的单边做空赌注 疯了
to be taking a large short-directional bet. Bonkers.
纯做空 你在开始前就基本放弃了
Short-only, you've essentially given up before you've even started.
你们需要差异化
You want differentiation.
你们看到一个只涨不跌的市场 我们看到一个目标丰富的环境
You see a market that only goes up. We see a target-rich environment.
你们所服务的家族办公室 所代表的客户
The family offices that you invest for, the clients that you represent,
要求非相关性收益 高风险 高回报
demand an uncorrelated return profile. High risk, high reward.
我与哈珀共事多年 她是刻在骨子里的赚钱高手
I've worked with Harper for many years. That's a bone-deep moneymaker.
我认识的她是那个任性关闭自己基金的女人
I know her as the woman who petulantly gated her fund.
或者是那个精心策划重获自♥由♥
Or the woman who orchestrated her freedom
以便今天能站在你们面前的女人
so she could be stood in front of you today.
告诉我斯特恩陶不只是两个人
Tell me SternTao isn't just two people.
团队在哪
Where's the team?
你们的交易员是谁
Who's your trader?
说实话 我有点失望
In truth, I feel a little disappointed.
我曾非常期待见到你们二位 但是...
I was very excited to meet you both, but...
你们要么有独到的做空想法 要么没有
you've either got a short that puts the cat inside the pigeon, or you don't.
谁说我没有那种想法
Who says I don't have that idea?
埃里克说长♥期♥输家并非口误
Eric didn't misspeak about secular losers.
破碎的商业模式 好吧 略有问题管理层 可以
Broken business models? Okay. Slightly sketchy management teams? Fine.
但我真正的热情在于寻找行尸走肉
But my real passion lies with finding dead men walking.
即基本情况是全面重估
Where the base case is a total reevaluation
以及股票故事的重定价
and a re-rating of the equity story.
我们关注着腾德
We have our eyes on Tender.
市场将其视为成长股
The market is treating that as a growth stock.
你们的具体论点是
What exactly is your thesis?
我们对他们的核心业务有根本性的疑虑
We have fundamental misgivings about their core offering.
对于如此笼统 缺乏细节的看法来说风险太高
Too high risk for such a generalized, detail-poor take.
皮埃尔 任何想投钱给我们的人
Pierre, anyone who wants to place money with us
都将充分了解我们的研究观点
will have full access to our researched view
远不止早餐会上这些粗略的评论
above and beyond cursory remarks at an introductory breakfast.
关于我们与伊本·鲍尔的合并
On our IBN Bauer merger,
审慎监♥管♥局♥拖拖拉拉
the Prudential Regulation Authority dragging their heels
让维也纳的一点微词发展成了不小的噪音
has allowed a quiet noise in Vienna to develop into a bit of a din.
鉴于该家族投票赞成合并
Given the family voted in favor of the merger,
我原以为这不是问题
I thought this was a non-issue
我可以私下处理而无需惊动你
I could handle personally without it reaching you.
但鲍尔家族仍占据两个董事会席位
But the Bauer family still represents two board seats.
莫里茨和他母亲一直在公开重新讨论
Moritz and his mother have been audibly re-litigating
他们在谈判时提出的担忧
the concerns they raised when we were negotiating.
他们现在要求与你们的高管团队会面
They've now asked for a sit-down with your executive team.
他的反对无关紧要 已经有大多数投票
His opposition is immaterial. There was a majority vote.
莫里茨和他母亲投票出♥售♥他们的家族银行
Moritz and his mother voted to sell their family bank.
那是遗留的董事会席位 他们拿钱就是来当摆设的
It's a legacy board seat. They're paid to have no issues.
他们拿钱就是为了闭嘴
They're paid to shut the fuck up.
是的 我们不能采取如此敌对的语气
Yeah, we can't strike such a hostile tone.
我们必须迅速行动 明天就要与监管机构会面
We have to act quickly here. The meeting with the regulator is tomorrow,
我们需要那张银行牌照
and we need that banking license.
贝文这边已搞定 但迪恩会更难对付
Bevan's in hand, but Dearn will be a harder nut to crack.
但如果伊本·鲍尔不跟进并出♥售♥ 这一切都毫无意义
But this is all for the fucking birds unless IBN Bauer follow through and sell.
谁是煽动者 儿子还是母亲
Who's the agitator? The son or the mother?
儿子 莫里茨的问题是安全
The son. Moritz's issue is security.
说他担心数据
Says he fears the data
担心伊本银行客户的数据在合并后被针对 收集 诸如此类
of IBN's banking clients being targeted, harvested, what have you, post-merger.
这很可笑 我们的反欺诈系统是最先进的
It's ludicrous. Our anti-fraud systems are state of the art,
而他们是一家过时的奥地利银行
and they're an antiquated Austrian bank.
鲍尔家族不是为第三帝国提供过资金吗
Didn't the Bauers finance the Reich?
到2026年才对《通用数据保护条例》问题产生良知有点晚了
It's a bit late to be growing a conscience on GDPR issues in 2026.
他们为大屠♥杀♥幸存者提供了巨额资金支持 数千万
They've given huge financial support to Shoah survivors. Tens of millions.
不加粉饰 我的解读 这家伙是个阿尔卑斯花♥花♥公♥子♥
No varnish. My reading, this guy is an Alpine fuckboy
对自己的重要性和求助途径有着过高的认知
with an outsized sense of his own relevance and recourse.
抱歉插句话 但根据我的经验
Sorry to add my voice here, but in my experience,
脾气暴躁的家族成员对当面交流反应良好
testy family members respond well to a bit of face time.
你知道 就是安抚一下自尊心 没错
You know, an ego massage. Exactly.
支撑他妄自尊大的幻觉
Support scaffold for delusions of his own grandeur.
我的传记作家的暂定书名
Working title for my biographer.
严肃地说
In all seriousness,
我们不能冒险推迟 更不用说
we can't risk postponement, or God forbid,
如果这事告吹还要支付终止费
pay the termination fees if this thing falls apart.
我认为如果他们要求了 我们都应该去
I think if they've asked, we should all go.
明白吗 多人到场会让他感到重要和被倾听
You know? Multiple faces will make him feel important and heard.
倾听他 假装我们在听
Lend him our ears. Pretend we're listening.
回来再处理监管机构的事
Come back, deal with the regulator.
亨利 我 不 不 不 不
Henry, I No, no, no. No.
这是他的行政决定
It's his executive decision.
抱歉 我无意太过直接
Sorry, I don't mean to be too direct,
但你究竟是以什么身份在这个房♥间里
but in what capacity are you in this room exactly?
她是付费顾问 我们需要她在这里
She's a paid consultant, and we need her here.
那个腾德的想法 只是为反而反
That Tender idea, was that just contrarianism,
还是你觉得确有其事
or you think there's a there there?
我读到他们正在收♥购♥一家奥地利银行
I read that they're in the process of acquiring an Austrian bank.
我得到线报 引擎盖下可能有更多内♥幕♥
I got a tip that there might be more going on underneath the hood.
你♥他♥妈♥说的线报是什么意思
What do you mean a fucking tip?
一位记者分享了一个未发表的假说
A journalist shared an unpublished hypothesis.
他或他的雇主有足够声望让市场在意吗
Does he or his employer have enough caché that the market will care?
还是他只是个自费出版的写手
Or is he just a self-published scribbler?
不 他为《金融快讯》工作
No, he works for FinDigest.
他妈的为什么他要零碎地泄露这些东西给你
Why the fuck is he leaking this stuff piecemeal to you?
对他而言道德上的反弹可能很大
The ethical blowback for him could be huge.
他正在向腾德发送出版前的问题
He's sending pre-publication questions to Tender,
但我不知道他何时发表
but I don't know when he's publishing.
当市场宠儿被证明
How much does a stock re-rate
估值过高时 股价会重新定价多少
when a market darling's been proven to be overvalued?
这个...
Well...
关键在 "被证明"
the operative word there is "proven."
你无法用某个记者的一千次小伤杀死一只蓝筹股
You can't kill a blue chip with a thousand cuts from some reporter.
看看康宝莱
Look at Herbalife.
看起来像传销 闻起来也像传销
Looks like a pyramid scheme. Smells like a pyramid scheme.
阿克曼从学理上阐述了它如何运作
Ackman intellectually lays out how it functions as one.
也许那是真♥相♥
Maybe that's the truth.
但真♥相♥有什么用 你需要时机
But what good is the truth? You've got timing.
你有康宝莱的公♥关♥机器
You got Herbalife's PR machine.
你有卡尔·伊坎在鼓吹交易的另一方面
You got Carl Icahn talking up the other side of the trade.
你有多擅长讲故事
How good a storyteller are you?
你又能维持这个故事多久
And how long can you sustain the story?
没有确凿证据...
Without a smoking gun...
你会输
you will lose.