非理性（2023）

但是，是的，当然。我抓住你了。
But yeah, of course. I got you.
一二三。
One, two, three.
* 来吧，头等舱，呃 *
* Come on, first class, uh *
是的。看？
Yes. See?
不可能的。
Impossible.
让我在这里再和你一起说一个。
Let me get one more with you here.
一、二......
One, two...
你会这么说吗，
Would you say that,
现在知道了技巧和噱头，
now knowing the tricks and gimmicks,
你不太可能继续赌博吗？
are you less likely to continue gambling?
猜猜这是不行的。
Guess that's a no.
你还没吃饱吗？
Aren't you full yet?
我已经吃了三天的食物了。
I've had enough food for three days.
这被称为从适应中释放。
It's called release from adaptation.
如果我坚持少食多餐，我的享受会持续更长时间。
If I stick to smaller meals, my enjoyment lasts longer.
这是在教授的第二本书中。
It's in the professor's second book.
我认为是时候进入研究的第二阶段了。
I think it's time to move on to phase two of the study.
教授给了我们钱来发现非理性，
Professor gave us money to find irrationality,
而不是在伯蒂的自助餐上闲逛。
not loiter at Bertie's all-you-can-eat buffet.
我以为目标是与赌徒商量，
I thought the goal was to confer with the gamblers,
不加入他们。
not join them.
我想让他们说话。
I want them to talk.
我不能像拿著剪贴板的精神病患者一样在他们身上徘徊。
I can't hover over them like a psycho with a clipboard.
我必须融入其中。
I've got to blend in.
天哪，我赢了。
Holy crap, I won.
这太疯狂了。
This is crazy.
你能相信吗？
Can you believe that?
我想我得开始叫你幸运女神了。
I guess I'm going to have to start calling you lady luck.
怎么了？
What's up?
我们会找到答案的。
We'll find out.
那是-- -伊森的硬皮美人鱼吗？
Is that-- - Ethan's crusty mermaid?
是的。是的，它是。
Yes. Yes, it is.
你是怎么得到的？
How did you get that?
注意力被误导。-毫米。
Misdirected attention. - Mm.
也被称为凯莉的技能。
Also known as Kylie's got skills.
类似于安慰剂效应，
Similar to the placebo effect,
人们将运气附著在物体上
people attach their luck to an object
当然，这无济于事。
that, of course, does nothing.
但他们对它的信念给了他们过度的信心。
But their belief in it gives them excess confidence.
所以如果伊森相信这条美人鱼
So if Ethan believes this mermaid
正在推动他的成功，
is driving his success,
那么没有它的比赛应该会让他退出比赛。
then playing without it should throw him off his game.
这就是目标。
That's the goal.
根据我与伊森的对话，
Based on my conversation with Ethan,
我有一种感觉他在撒谎
I have a feeling he's lying
关于他的幸运符在多大程度上改善了他的游戏。
about how much his lucky charm improved his game.
我们很快就会知道，不是吗？
We'll soon find out, won't we?
是的。-好！
Yes. - Nice!
好吧。
All right.
伊森向我承认事实并非如此
Ethan admitted to me that it's not
只是技能的突然激增。
just a sudden surge of skills.
根据你和他的游戏，
And based on your game with him,
我们知道这不是信心-运气的回圈
we know that it's not the confidence-luck cycle
推动他的成功。
driving his success.
这意味著他一定是在作弊。
Which means he has to be cheating.
同意。
Agreed.
即便如此，也需要时间来弄清楚。
Even so, it's going to take time to figure it out.
我只剩下几个小时的筹码了
I only have a few hours of chips left
在他把我击倒之前。
before he knocks me out.
然后也许我们走开了，卡米尔。
Then maybe we walk away, Camille.
这只是一场比赛。
It's just one tournament.
不仅如此。-最后。我一直在等。
It's more than that. - Finally. I've been waiting.
告诉我。
Tell me.
我，嗯......
I, um...
有很多事情要做。
there's just a lot on the line.
我知道在一场公平的比赛中，我能赢。
I know in a fair game, I could win.
但如果你不这样做呢？
But if you don't?
这很复杂。
It's complicated.
你必须是复杂的部分。
You must be the complicated part.
这个人是谁？
Who's this guy?
别管他。他不是其中的一部分。
Just leave him alone. He's not part of this.
一旦你认识了我们，
Once you made our acquaintance,
你是其中的一部分。
you're part of this.
不要以为你的口袋里有200万美元，
Don't suppose you've got $2 million in your pocket,
是吗？
do you?
你是高♥利♥贷♥者。
You're loan sharks.
嗯，放债人。得到了一个更友好的戒指。
Mm, moneylenders. Got a friendlier ring to it.
所以你有现金吗？
So you got the cash?
如果没有，我们将需要一些抵押品尽快。
If not, we're going to need some collateral ASAP.
当你不这样做时，就会发生这种情况
That's what happens when you don't
按照您的承诺执行。
perform like you promised.
呃，对不起。
Uh, sorry.
我还没有正确地介绍自己。
I haven't properly introduced myself.
我叫亚历克·默瑟。
My name is Alec Mercer.
我是威尔顿大学的行为科学教授。
I'm a professor of behavioral science at Wylton University.
我不能给你钱，
I can't get you your money,
但我可以给你一些免费的建议。
but I can offer you some free advice.
我一直在与企业合作。
I work with businesses all the time.
据我所知，
And from what I can see,
你的运行效率低下。
you're running yours inefficiently.
你是想让子弹射进头部吗？
Are you trying to get a bullet in the head?
不。
No.
我只是来帮忙的，这样我们最终都会名列前茅。
I'm just here to help so that we all end up on top.
也就是说，你应该知道卡米尔为什么打电♥话♥给我。
That said, you should know why Camille called me.
我保证你对此感兴趣。
I promise it's of interest to you.
启发我。
Enlighten me.
比赛中有一个作弊者。
There's a cheater at the tournament.
我们正在把他赶出去。
We're in the process of flushing him out.
这就是我一直在输的原因。
That's why I've been losing.
我们仍然需要一些抵押品。
We're still going to need some collateral.
你认为你在激励卡米尔
You think you're incentivizing Camille
表现得更好，但你只是在给她压力，
to perform better, but you're just stressing her out,
这让她的表现更糟。
which makes her perform worse.
那。。。
Well...
以下是我们要做的。
here's what we're going to do.
目前没有抵押品。
No collateral for now.
但兴趣上升了。
But the interest goes up.
你有 36 小时的时间给我钱，外加另外 5%。
You've got 36 hours to get me my money plus another 5%.
谈判结束。
End of negotiation.
你真是太棒了。
You were amazing.
你拉动的开关跟踪他们。
The switch tracking you pulled on them.
然后当我们给多米尼克打上标签时。
And then when we tag-teamed Dominic.
改变对话模式
Changing the pattern of conversation
真的把他甩掉了。
really threw him off.
卡 蜜。
Camille.
我很尴尬。
I'm so embarrassed.
我不——我什至不知道从哪里开始。
I don't--I don't even know where to start.
开始怎么样？
How about the beginning?
当我第一次到达拉斯维加斯时，感觉我不能输。
When I first got to Vegas, it felt like I couldn't lose.
我这么快就赚了这么多钱。
I was making so much money so quickly.
感觉它总是这样。
And it felt like it would just always be like that.
在不知不觉中，我左右花钱。
And before I knew it, I was spending money left and right.
我——我给我妈妈买♥♥了一栋房♥子。
I--I bought my mom a house.
她为我牺牲了很多，
And she sacrificed so much for me,
我终于可以给她应得的了。
and I could finally give her what she deserved.
我明白了。
I get it.
你成了结果偏差的受害者。
You fell victim to outcome bias.
当事情好的时候......
When things are good...
很容易假设他们永远都是这样，
It's easy to assume they'll always be like that,
事后不难看出，
which is easy to see in hindsight,