非理性（2023）

这解释了文本和电♥话♥。
Which explains the texts and the calls.
毫米。
Mm.
我的老板很有需要......几乎和你一样需要说明。
My bosses are needy... almost as needy as you.
教授，我们能谈谈吗？
Professor, can we talk?
我想为毁掉我的演讲而道歉。
I wanted to apologize for tanking my lecture.
没必要。我有点预料到你的演讲会很糟糕。
No need. I kind of expected your lecture to go badly.
无论如何，我都想把它送给你......和下一个。
I wanted to give it to you anyway... and the next one.
你对我可怕没意见吗？
You're okay with me being terrible?
不要告诉任何人，
Don't tell anyone,
但菲比的第一次大型演讲是残酷的，我的也是。
but Phoebe's first big lecture was atrocious, so was mine.
你是残暴的？
You were atrocious?
一个有几百名学生的大讲堂，
A big lecture hall with a few hundred students,
其中一半人真的不想去那里？
half of whom don't really want to be there?
可怕的是可能的结果，
Being terrible is the likely outcome,
甚至是必要的，因为......
even a necessary one, because...
科学。
science.
当实验不如你所愿时，这就是资讯。
When an experiment doesn't go your way, that's information.
完全。如果你学会了，你就不会失败......只有当你停下来时。
Exactly. You don't fail if you learn... only if you stop.
所以讲课。学习。
So give the lecture. Learn.
嗯。
Hmm.
不错的鼓舞人心的谈话。
Nice pep talk.
我发现了一些东西。
I found something.
让我们听听。-毫米。
Let's hear it. - Mm.
根据我挖出的这份招股说明书，
According to this prospectus I dug up,
泰德创立了一家开♥发♥微型太阳能电池板的公♥司♥。
Ted founded a company to develop micro-solar panels.
但他的创业公♥司♥有著疯狂的高烧钱率，
But his startup had a crazy high burn rate,
于是他去寻找资本注入
so he went looking for a capital infusion
达到250万美元。
to the tune of $2.5 million.
这与 270 万美元相差不远。
Which isn't far from $2.7 million.
显然，如果他不明白，
Apparently, if he doesn't get it,
他的投资者将失去他们的衬衫。
his investors are going to lose their shirts.
也许他们中的一个人认为这是维持生计的一种方式。
Maybe one of them figured this is a way to stay afloat.
我不明白。
I don't get it.
泰德·阿克赫斯特（Ted Akehurst）有很多钱。
Ted Akehurst has plenty of money.
为什么不自筹资金？- 这是个好问题。
Why not self-finance? - It's a good question.
等。
Wait.
泰德是小西奥多·阿克赫斯特（Theodore Akehurst Jr.）
Ted is Theodore Akehurst Jr.
这家初创公♥司♥属于西奥多·阿克赫斯特三世（Theodore Akehurst III），
This startup belongs to Theodore Akehurst III,
他的儿子特雷。
his son Trey.
射。错了阿克赫斯特。
Shoot. Wrong Akehurst.
但同样的问题，不过。
But same issue, though.
当特雷有一个有钱的爸爸时，他为什么要去乞讨？
Why Trey go begging for money when he has a rich-ass daddy?
我敢打赌，他的有钱爸爸说不，
I'm betting his rich-ass daddy said no,
这意味著泰德愿意给维罗妮卡
which means Ted is willing to give Veronica
无论她想要什么，但不会为他自己的儿子这样做。
whatever she wants but won't do that for his own son.
你没有弄错阿克赫斯特。
You didn't get the wrong Akehurst.
你找对了。里兹万，
You got the right one. Rizwan,
拉动我们曾经做过的每一项零和偏倚研究。
pull every study we've ever done on zero-sum bias.
为了讲座？- 对于这种情况。
For the lecture? - And for the case.
丁肖在这里。准备交换。
Dinshaw here. Ready for the exchange.
罗斯，是亚历克。
Rose, it's Alec.
不要做掉落。特雷是绑匪。
Do not do the drop. Trey is the kidnapper.
重复，不要做掉落。
Repeat, do not do the drop.
嗯，那是一场灾难。
Well, that was a disaster.
维罗妮卡还好吗？-希望如此。我从未见过她。
Is Veronica okay? - I hope so. I never saw her.
当亚历克告诉我取消掉落时，我不得不快速思考。
When Alec told me to cancel the drop, I had to think fast.
我说我发现钱里藏著追踪筹码。
I said I'd found tracking chips hidden in the money.
我要求他们重新安排时间。
I asked for them to reschedule.
绑匪买♥♥了它？- 他似乎。
And the kidnapper bought it? - He seemed to.
他很生气，但他说他不会伤害维罗妮卡......还。
He was angry, but he said he wouldn't hurt Veronica... yet.
不过，他确实把时间线往上移了。
Though, he did move up the timeline.
我们现在要到午夜。-毫米。
We now have until midnight. - Mm.
你确定这是特雷？
You're sure this is Trey?
我们确信。
We're sure.
我调出了Trey的电♥话♥记录。
I pulled Trey's phone records.
他的手♥机♥一直断断续续
His cell phone has been going on and off line
在过去的两天里。当它关闭时，
for the past two days. When it's off,
它完全没有信♥号♥♥，就像它在法拉第袋里一样。
it's completely signal-dead like it's in a Faraday bag.
停机时间与赎金电♥话♥相匹配。
The downtimes match with the ransom calls.
所以他在与维罗妮卡打交道时包了自己的手♥机♥，
So he bags his own phone when dealing with Veronica,
然后用她的电♥话♥来敲诈勒索。
then uses hers to make ransom calls.
然后是赎金金额。
Then there's the ransom amount.
270万美元正是特雷所需要的
$2.7 million is exactly what Trey needs
为了维持他的生意
to keep his business afloat
加上维罗妮卡想要的学校。
plus what Veronica wants for school.
你让它看起来好像特雷和维罗妮卡
You make it seem as if Trey and Veronica
正在一起工作。- 来吧。没办法。
are working together. - Come on now. There's no way.
维罗妮卡以贩毒为由甩掉了科里。
Veronica dumped Corey for dealing drugs.
她永远不会参与假绑♥架♥。
She'd never partake in a fake kidnapping.
我同意。但我认为，当特雷提出这个想法时，
I agree. But I think that when Trey came up with the idea,
他以为维罗妮卡会同意的。
he thought that Veronica would go along with it.
这就是他想出赎金数位的地方。
That's where he came up with the ransom number.
这就是，嗯，锚定的东西，对吧，
That's the, um, anchoring thing, right,
在哪里设定...他们心目中的固定价格，
where one sets a... a set price in their mind,
很难改变它？
and it's tough to change it?
即使在维罗妮卡拒绝合作之后。
Even after Veronica refused to cooperate.
你真的相信特雷会杀死维罗妮卡吗？
You truly believe Trey might kill Veronica?
他们几乎是兄妹。
They're very nearly brother and sister.
不幸的是，伪兄弟姐妹的纽带
Unfortunately, pseudo-sibling bonds
还可能导致伪兄弟姐妹的竞争。
can also lead to pseudo-sibling rivalries.
我假设特雷捡到了维罗妮卡
I assume that Trey picked up Veronica
在她与科里争吵之后。
after she argued with Corey.
有些东西让他很生气。
Something set him off.
最好的猜测是，她提出了这个想法
Best guess, she floated the idea
在他父亲去世两天后才从泰德那里得到钱
of getting the money from Ted just two days after his father
拒绝救助他的创业公♥司♥。
refused to bail out his startup.
那会让特雷生气、嫉妒、委屈。
That would have made Trey angry, jealous, wronged.
完全。因为经典的兄弟姐妹竞争
Exactly. Because the classic sibling rivalry
由可预测的非理性推动
is fueled by a predictable irrationality
称为零和偏见。
called zero-sum bias.
零和偏见是错误地认为非物质资源
Zero-sum bias is the misbelief that non-material resources
喜欢爱，尊重，甚至好成绩
like love, respect, even good grades
是有限的，因此如果一个人赢了，
are finite such that if one person wins,
然后另一个必须输。
then another one has to lose.
关于零和偏见最糟糕的部分
The worst part about zero-sum bias
是它可以使情况
is that it can make a situation
每个人都可以在残酷的竞争中获胜，
where everyone could win into a cutthroat competition,
将双赢变成双赢。
making win-win into win-lose.
今天，我们要谈谈零和偏见。
Today, we're going to talk about zero-sum bias.
但首先，奖品。
But first, prizes.
我们为在上次测验中表现出色的每个人准备了礼物。
We have gifts for everyone who did well on the last quiz.
派对主播。
Party streamers.
喔。
Whoo.
回旋曲，A-负。你会得到一个奖品。
Rondo, A-minus. You get a prize.
莫拉莱斯，A.一个给你。
Morales, A. One for you.
斯塔克斯，A-减号♥。抓住。
Starks, A-minus. Catch.
好。
Nice.
现在轮到吴了。我们有三个 A。
Now it's Wu's turn. We've had three As.
那么谁认为吴也会获奖呢？
So who thinks Wu will also get a prize?
只有20%。
Only 20%.
正确答案是......
And the correct answer is...
吴也得到了A。
Wu also got an A.
彩带！
Streamers!
这就是零和偏见。
And that's zero-sum bias.
你犯了一个错误，认为前三个是
You made the mistake of believing the first three As
意味著不会有第四个，
meant there wouldn't be a fourth,
但事实是，你们中的大多数人都做得很好。
but the truth is most of you did great.
所以适合所有人的彩带。
So streamers for everyone.
现在，对于家庭来说，
Now, for families,
零和偏见可以使孩子相信
zero-sum bias can make children believe