非理性（2023）

然而，奇迹般地，22名幸存者被救出......
Miraculously, however, 22 survivors have been rescued...
你在坠机现场吗？
Are you at the crash site?
是的。这是所有人的手。
Yeah. This was the all hands.
我在看新闻。
I'm watching on the news.
美国联邦航♥空♥局之所以叫我们进来，是因为他们相信
The FAA called us in because they believe
这架飞机是故意被击落的。
the flight was downed deliberately.
故意？有人进入驾驶舱？
Deliberately? Someone get into the cockpit?
现在，所有的目光都集中在飞行员身上。
Right now, all eyes on the pilot.
他在坠机事故中丧生。
He died in the crash.
有什么动机吗？- 好吧，我希望
Any motive? - Well, I was hoping
你可以提供一些启示。
you could shed some light.
他经验丰富，有著完美的飞行记录，
He's highly experienced, had a perfect flying record,
但奇怪的是，他在起飞后没有遵守任何协定。
but weirdly, he didn't follow any protocol after takeoff.
他们进行了药检吗？
Did they drug test?
是的，他很干净。
Yeah, he's clean.
我们需要帮助来弄清楚他的心理状态。
We need help figuring out his state of mind.
有兴趣进行评估吗？
Any interest in giving your assessment?
我会在那里。
I'll be right there.
飞行的三个最基本的规则:
The three most basic rules of flying:
导航、导航、沟通。
aviate, navigate, communicate.
飞行员没有做这些。
The pilot did none of those.
亚历克，我是欧文·卡拉吉安，
Alec, this is Owen Kalagian,
Hollette Aviation，飞机制♥造♥商。
Hollette Aviation, manufacturers of the aircraft.
这是戴尔·纽豪斯，NTSB。
And this is Dale Newhouse, NTSB.
他正在领导调查。
He's leading the investigation.
我是Emma Liu。她会为我们奔跑。
This is Emma Liu. She'll be running point for us.
我读过你的书。很高兴你来到这里。
I've read your books. Glad you're here.
呃，那飞机有什么问题吗？
Uh, so were there any problems with the plane?
呃，我们还在收集数据，
Uh, we're still gathering data,
但没有迹象表明有任何机械问题。
but there were no indications of any mechanical problems.
一切都通过了检查。- 飞行员失误？
Everything passed inspection. - Pilot error?
好吧，起飞几秒钟后，这家伙切换到手动
Well, seconds after takeoff, the guy switched to manual
并改变航向以夹住桥梁。
and changed course to clip the bridge.
没有人会犯这种错误，
Nobody makes that kind of mistake,
当然不是飞行员
sure as hell not a pilot
拥有12年的飞行经验。
with 12 years of flight experience.
天气？- 嗯，有
Weather? - Well, there was
有些轻微的风切变，但没什么异常。
some minor wind shear, but nothing abnormal.
我们对副驾驶了解多少？
What do we know about the copilot?
也没有成功。
Didn't make it either.
一旦我们找到黑匣子，
Once we locate the black box,
我们会确切地知道驾驶舱里说了什么。
we'll know exactly what was said in the cockpit.
我知道有幸存者吗？
I understand there were survivors?
最多25个。这真的是一个奇迹。
Up to 25. It's really quite a miracle.
我们没有排除恐♥怖♥主♥义♥的可能性。
We haven't ruled out terrorism.
或自杀。
Or suicide.
你说他是一个熟练的飞行员？
You said he was a skilled pilot?
是的，最好的之一。
Yeah, one of the best.
所以如果他想杀死自己和他人，
So if he wanted to kill himself and others,
他为什么要坠毁飞机
why would he crash a plane
以某种方式让一半的乘客幸存下来？
in a way that would let half the passengers survive?
我不知道。
I don't know.
这就是你来这里的原因。
That's why you're here.
你认为有多少商业航♥空♥公♥司♥坠毁了
How many commercial airlines do you think have crashed
在过去十年中在美国？
in the U.S. in the last ten years?
我应该知道这一点。超过20个？
I should know this. More than 20?
你的回答表明
Your answer suggests
你害怕飞行。
you have a fear of flying.
以及大约 40% 的人口。
Along with roughly 40% of the population.
零。-不好意思？
Zero. - Sorry?
在过去十年中，商用飞机坠毁事件为零。
Zero commercial plane crashes in the last ten years.
想像一下。
Imagine that.
每天 25,000 个航♥班♥，
25,000 flights per day,
每年2200万，
22 million per year,
没有一次崩溃。
not a single crash.
直到今天。
Until today.
好吧，这是2.2亿分之一。
Okay, that's one in 220 million.
你害怕开车吗？
Do you have a fear of driving?
还没有。
Not yet.
六百万。
Six million.
每年发生600万起车祸。
Six million car accidents per year.
我们死于飞机失事的机会
The chances of us dying going to see a plane crash
比死在一个人身上大 1,000%。
are 1,000% greater than dying in one.
嘿，教授。
Hey, Professor.
里兹万。我听说你度过了一个上午。
Rizwan. I hear you had quite a morning.
我知道。是的。
I know. Yeah.
对不起，我来晚了。交通很糟糕。
Sorry I'm late. The traffic was terrible.
你在桥附近，对吧？你看到崩溃了吗？
You were near the bridge, right? You saw the crash?
听说你正在调查。
Heard you're on the investigation.
我想帮忙。-你确定？
I'd like to help. - You sure?
也许你今天应该放轻松。
Maybe you should take it easy today.
我可以覆盖。
I can cover.
不，我很好，真的。
No, I'm fine, really.
好了，我们走吧。
All right, let's go.
NTSB看到了飞行员自杀的强烈迹象，
The NTSB sees a strong indication of pilot suicide,
尽管证据相互矛盾。
despite conflicting evidence.
为什么？
Why?
确认偏差？
Confirmation bias?
认知闭合？-双。
Cognitive closure? - Both.
时代越不确定，我们就越渴望确定性。
The more uncertain the times, the more we crave certainty.
他们忽略了坏事实。
They're ignoring bad facts.
什么是坏事实？
What are bad facts?
那些不符合其操作理论的人
Ones that don't fit their operating theory
但仍然是真的。
but are true nonetheless.
但如果是自杀呢？
But what if it is suicide?
这是飞机失事的第二大原因。
It's the number two cause for plane crashes.
2002年至2013年间有8起案件。
There were eight cases between 2002 and 2013.
航♥空♥公♥司♥发现飞行员已经
And the airline discovered the pilot had been
治疗抑郁症。
in treatment for depression.
不是抑郁症，是抑郁症发作。这是有区别的。
Not depression, a depressive episode. There's a difference.
在经历了漫长而艰难的离婚之后？
Following a prolonged, difficult divorce?
也许他很紧张。
Maybe he was on edge.
我经历了一场漫长而艰难的离婚。
I went through a prolonged, difficult divorce.
我有被击落飞机的风险吗？
Am I at risk of downing a plane?
但他确实击落了一架飞机。
But he did down a plane.
问题是为什么。
The question is why.
如果飞行员有自杀倾向，也许会有一张纸条，
If the pilot was suicidal, there'd be a note maybe,
一种行为模式。
a pattern of behavior.
绝对不会有任何幸存者
There definitely wouldn't be any survivors
免得他成为他们中的一员。
lest he be one of them.
如果这是故意的，那就太草率了，
If this was intentional, it was sloppy,
哪些记录表明他绝非如此。
which records indicate he was anything but.
我们需要对试点有一个公正的看法。
We need to get an unbiased view of the pilot.
你是对的。
You're right.
给我一秒钟。
Give me a second.
亚历克，我们已经去过飞行员的家了。
Alec, we've already been through the pilot's home.
是的，但你找错了东西。
Yes, but you were looking for the wrong things.
那么，你在找什么？
Well, what are you looking for?
这就是重点。我还不知道。
That's the point. I don't know yet.
钥匙在密♥码♥箱里。
The key's in the lockbox.
我会给你发简讯代码。
I'll text you the code.
哦，好吧，你们俩似乎关系很好。
Oh, well, you two seem to be on good terms.
呃，这意味著他接受得很好？
Uh, that mean he took it well?
其实，我还没有告诉他。
Actually, I haven't told him yet.
哦。
Oh.
我本来打算去的，但后来我们被打断了
I was going to, but then we got interrupted
由于飞机失事，从那以后就有点忙了。
by the plane crash, and it's been a little hectic since.
没有压力。
No pressure.
这对我来说也是全新的。
It's all new to me too.
所以我正在查看航♥班♥清单以寻找可能的目标。
So I was reviewing the flight manifest for possible targets.