转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E09

Part 7 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

We just learned the US and G7 allies
同意向乌克兰派遣F16战机
agreed to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
德国最终同意向乌克兰运送豹二型坦克
Germany has finally agreed to allow Leopard 2 tanks to be sent to Ukraine.
美国国♥务♥院♥宣布
Today, the department is announcing approximately $400 million
（萨布丽娜·辛格五角大楼副新闻秘书）
向乌克兰提供四亿美元的额外安全援助
in additional security assistance for Ukraine.
爱沙尼亚一直是乌克兰最大的支持者之一
Estonia has been one of the largest supporters of Ukraine.
上周我们援助了1%的杀伤性武器
Last week, we achieved 1% of lethal aid,
按照爱沙尼亚的情况相当于四亿美元
that amounts for 400 million US dollars in Estonian terms.
（库斯蒂·萨姆）
我们是一个小国家
We are a small country.
我们只能尽量多提供军事援助
We can only give military aid as much as we can give.
爱沙尼亚共和国总理
Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia.
但当乌克兰人决定要保卫自己的国家时
But when Ukrainians decided that they're gonna defend their country,
我们必须倾囊相助让他们保卫自己的家园
we have to do everything, uh, for them to let them defend their home.
我们看到历史不断重演
We saw the history repeating itself.
我们被占领期间也看到过同样的剧本
The same playbook that we saw during our occupation.
我们的人♥民♥也经历过同样的苦难
The same sufferings that our people went through,
我们的祖父母都经历过
our grandmothers, our grandfathers.
我们在乌克兰看到了同样的情况
We saw the same happening in Ukraine.
普♥京♥总统入侵乌克兰是因为他想削弱北约的影响力
President Putin invaded Ukraine because he wanted less NATO.
结果北约影响力越来越大
He's getting more NATO.
北约正在将其快速反应部队
NATO is increasing its rapid response force
增加七倍多
more than sevenfold,
并在波罗的海增加部队数量
and bolstering troop numbers in the Baltics.
北约成员国的数量也越来越多
He's also getting more NATO members.
乌克兰的局势让我们想起了欧洲历史上最黑暗的日子
The situation in Ukraine reminds us of the darkest days of European history.
昨天瑞典和芬兰提交了加入北约的正式请求
Yesterday, Sweden and Finland submitted our formal requests to join NATO.
乌克兰人需要很多支持
Ukrainians need a lot of support.
他们正在为欧洲和世界的未来而战
They're fighting for the future of Europe and for the future of the world,
因为民♥主♥和自♥由♥的根基岌岌可危
because at stake are the foundations of democracy, of freedom.
今天的乌克兰人已经准备好为这些价值观而牺牲了
Ukrainians today are prepared to die for those values.
我觉得冷战还没有结束
I think the Cold War is not over.
一些专♥制♥领导人仍有这种心态...
There are still the mentality of some authoritarian leaders
觉得可以给邻国带来幸福
that they can bring the happiness to neighboring countries
通过占领他们
by occupying them
通过窃取每个国家的自然权利
and stealing the natural right,
窃取每个国家进行自主决定的主♥权♥
sovereign right of every country to decide what to do.
（基辅火车站 2022年3月）
现在各方都陷入僵局了
Right now, all sides are so locked in,
我认为对任何人来说都不会有好结果
I don't think there is going to be a good outcome for anybody.
从非黑即白的简单角度来看
And looking at this in very black-and-white simple terms,
我们忘记了一些重要的东西
we forget, really, some of the essential things.
我们喜欢说我们想要一个基于规则的国际社会
We like to say we want a rules-based, uh, international society.
是的我们应该那样
And yes, we should have one.
但如果美国在违反规则方面树立了榜样
But we're not going to get one if the United States sets examples
我们就不会有那样的国际社会
in violating these rules, which we have done.
当然普♥京♥入侵乌克兰从一开始就是一个巨大的错误
Of course, it was a huge error for Putin to invade Ukraine to begin with.
但我想我们不应该忘记我们给了他一个先例
But I think we shouldn't forget we gave him a precedent.
毕竟乔治·W·布♥什♥入侵了伊♥拉♥克♥
After all, George W. Bush invaded Iraq.
而伊♥拉♥克♥都不是会威胁我们的邻国
Which was not a neighboring country which possibly threatened us.
我们谎称那里有武器
And we did it lying about having weapons there.
普♥京♥的所作所为是战争罪
What Putin has done is a war crime.
但我认为我们必须承认我们的国家也难逃战争罪行
But I think we have to recognize that our country has not been free of war crimes.
我认为我们还没有一位总统
And we've not yet had a president who would correctly, I think,
能够正确地承认并处理这一问题
admit it and deal with it.
美国不能选择孤立主义
Isolationism is not an option for the United States.
从来都不行在我们的经济已经融入世界其他地方的今天
It never was, and it certainly isn't today with our economy as integrated
当然也不可取
into the rest of the world as it is.
我认为美国
The United States, I think,
必须继续发挥全球领导作用
has to continue to exercise global leadership,
但我们不必成为世界警♥察♥
but we don't have to be the world's policemen.
由于冷战结束后过度使用军事力量
Because of the overuse of the military since the end of the Cold War,
大多数美国人将全球领导力
most Americans conflate global leadership
与愿意派遣我们的儿女
with being willing to send our sons and daughters
到世界各地去解决其他人的问题
everywhere in the world to solve other people's problems
或推行民♥主♥混为一谈了
or to impose democracy.
（俄♥罗♥斯♥反♥共♥中心）
（赶走共♥产♥党）
冷战是塑造美国的熔炉
The Cold War was the crucible that shaped America.
冷战塑造了美国的军队
It shaped the American military,
花费了数万亿美元研制武器准备在第三次世界大战中
which spent trillions of dollars on weapons to fight World War III
与苏联对抗
against the Soviets.
冷战塑造了美国的外交
It shaped American diplomacy.
冷战塑造了美国的情报部门
It shaped American intelligence.
冷战塑造了美国的流行文化
It shaped American popular culture.
真是了不起的国家!
What a country!
冷战塑造了美国人♥民♥的集体意识
And it shaped the collective consciousness of the American people.
其影响会一直存在
And its effects will linger
只要有人记得
as long as there is a person
发生过什么
who remembers what happened
以及为什么
and why.
冷战不可避免地给参战的几代人
The Cold War inevitably left a very deep legacy of suspicion
留下了深深的猜疑和敌意
and indeed hostility in the generations that fought it.
俄♥罗♥斯♥是一个衰落的地方
Russia is a diminished place.
现在它会变得更加孤立
And now it's gonna become more and more isolated,
更加贫穷更加怨恨更加排外
poorer, more resentful, more xenophobic.
这不是重建俄♥罗♥斯♥的伟大
It's not re-establishing Russian greatness.
这是巨大的耻辱
It's an immense humiliation.
普♥京♥开始做一些永远不会成功的事情
Putin set out to do something which never can succeed.
过去无法重现帝国无法重建
You cannot restore the past. You cannot restore the empire.
问题是他和他的体制
The question is, how many lives he takes,
夺走了多少人的生命
and his system takes with it.
帝国不是一天崩溃的
Empires don't just collapse in a day.
帝国需要一段时间才能瓦解
Empires take a while to collapse.
情况会很混乱边境地带会有很多暴♥力♥事件
It's messy, there's a lot of violence around where the borders are going to end.
所以我认为我们看到的是这段故事仍在上演
So I think what we're seeing is still that story playing out.
但是现在我们将再次面临
But what we are now going to have again is,
莫斯科和华盛顿之间的
we are going to have this nuclear standoff
核对峙
between Moscow and Washington,
基本会威胁到我们的文明
which basically threatens civilization as we know it.
我们如何对抗普♥京♥的所作所为捍卫我们的价值观
How do we stand up to what Putin is doing and defend our values,
尽管有可能因为核灾难而失去一切?
despite the risk of losing it all through nuclear catastrophe?
这是一项巨大的挑战
That is an immense challenge.
幸运的是有冷战的历史帮助我们指导我们
Fortunately, we have the history of the Cold War to help us, to guide us.
因为我们需要再次吸取冷战时期的教训
Because we're gonna need what we learned during the Cold War again.
因此我们需要找到一种方法
So we need to find a way,
即使完全意识到有核升级的风险
even in full consciousness of the risk of nuclear escalation,
也要坚持我们的价值观
to stand up for our values,
在邪恶面前坚持正义
stand up for what is right in the face of evil.
对我来说一个长♥期♥的历史教训是
One of the long-term historic lessons for me
人人都渴望个人自♥由♥
is that man aspires to personal freedom
都渴望允许梦想的生活
and to a life that allows dreams.
柏林墙的倒塌
The collapse of the wall.
（莱比锡抗♥议♥ 1989年10月9日）
在10月9日抗♥议♥时我们并没想到会成真但我们有梦想
We did not think about it on the 9th of October, but we dreamt of it.
有梦想总是好的
And dreaming is always good.
（西格伯特·谢夫克前东德卧底记者）
要敢于梦想无法实现的目标我到现在还是这样
Dreaming of unreachable goals. I still do it today.
我当时不知道会发生什么心里很害怕
I did not know what would happen to me, and I was afraid.
但我也觉得跟其他人在一起很安全
But then I also felt safe together with all the other people.
（加比·萨琼兹前东德居民）
（立陶宛 1991年）
我们应该明白想要拥有自♥由♥ 秘诀就是勇气
The main thing we should understand is that the secret to freedom is courage.
我们必须有勇气...
We have to be courageous.
（阿吉尔达斯·考斯佩达斯立陶宛国家电视台台长 1990-1992）
这是他们最害怕的
And this is what they fear most.
他们想要威胁所有人实现他们的利益
They want to threaten everyone and implement their interests.
（不要插手乌克兰）
我们必须无所畏惧
And we have to be unafraid of them,
我们必须反击
and we have to fight back.
1983年双方均部署核导弹
In '83, the deployment of nuclear missiles
情况十分危急
on both sides was a very dangerous situation.
（发射）
然而我们见面交流
Nevertheless, we met to talk to one another,
共同克服了危急情况
and we overcame the situation.
从很多方面来说当今世界