转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E03

Part 3 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

有文件和计划显示
There were documents and plans
美国政♥府♥将如何在各个方面
showing how every aspect of the US government
领导一个遭受核战争破坏的国家
could lead a nuclear war-damaged country.
我从海军陆战队退役后以顾问的身份来到兰德公♥司♥
I arrive at Rand as a consultant, having gotten out of the Marines.
我被分配到一个研究小组
I was assigned to a study group working on a problem then
研究如何阻止俄♥罗♥斯♥发动突然袭击从而基本上解除我们的武装
of deterring a Russian surprise attack that would disarm us basically,
由他们实际统治世界
and let them, in effect, rule the world.
从道义上讲
It seemed morally almost obligatory
培养以牙还牙的能力似乎是必须的
to try to develop an ability to retaliate in kind.
这是一群非常聪明的人
This was a very smart bunch.
包括我在兰德公♥司♥的导师阿尔伯特·沃斯泰特
Including my mentor at Rand, Albert Wohlstetter,
还有我的朋友赫尔曼·卡恩
and my friend Herman Kahn.
他们是我接触过的最聪明的一群人
The smartest group of people I ever did associate with.
顺便说一句事实证明
It turns out, by the way,
聪明并不代表拥有智慧
intelligence is not a very good guarantee of wisdom.
威慑是一门艺术能使敌人对进攻
Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy
产生恐惧
the fear to attack.
在电影《奇爱博士》中
In the movie Dr. Strangelove,
很多台词都摘自赫尔曼·卡恩
many of the words are taken from Herman Kahn,
在《论热核战争》一书中
the leader... inventor of the doomsday machine,
对领导者和末日机器发明者的讨论
on his book on thermonuclear war.
末日机器是可怕的
The doomsday machine is terrifying.
这很容易理解
It's simple to understand.
也完全可信令人信服
And completely credible and convincing.
天啊真希望我们也有一台末日机器斯坦西
Gee, I wish we had one of them doomsday machines, Stainesey.
你看那部电影时是如何看待奇爱博士的?
What did you think of Dr. Strangelove when you saw that movie?
看吧那就是一部纪录片
See, that was a documentary.
《奇爱博士》里的一切都是有可能发生的
Everything in Dr. Strangelove could have happened.
总统先生
Mr. President...
大约35分钟前
...about, uh, 35 minutes ago,
伯珀森空军基地的指挥官
General Jack Ripper,
杰克·里珀将军
the commanding general of, um, Burpelson Air Force Base,
向他负责的 34架B-52战斗机下达了指令
issued an order to the 34 B-52s of his wing,
这些战斗机当时正在空中飞行
which were airborne at the time,
这是我们正在进行的名为"空投行动"的特别演习的一部分
as part of a special exercise we were holding called Operation Dropkick.
现在看来指令要求飞机
Now, it appears that the order called for the planes
攻击俄♥罗♥斯♥境内的目标
to attack their targets inside Russia.
这些飞机全副武装每架平均装载
The planes are fully armed with nuclear weapons
4000万吨♥级爆♥炸♥威力的核武器
with an average load of, um, 40 megatons each.
只有总统才有权发射这些武器的说法
The notion that only the president had the authority
纯属无稽之谈
to launch those weapons was a myth.
不是吗? 所以... -从来都不是真的
That's not true? So... - It has never been true.
还有很多人可以发射
Many other people can launch this.
不只是参谋长联席会议
Not only the Joint Chiefs.
一直以来都有这样的安排如果有更低级别人员
There have always been arrangements for lower-level people,
认为战争正在进行
if they believe that a war is going on,
或者如果通讯被切断他们就会可以发射这些武器
or if communications are cut off, to launch those weapons.
那你为什么不用无线电通知飞机取消指令呢?
Then why haven't you radioed the planes countermanding the go code?
恐怕我们无法与任何一架飞机取得联♥系♥
Well, I'm afraid we're unable to communicate with any of the aircraft.
当电影中的空军司令巴克·特吉德森
When Buck Turgidson, the head of the Air Force in the movie,
对总统说
says to the president,
"飞机已经起飞不能召回了
"The planes are sent off and can't be recalled."
他们没有理由不去他们已经在路上了"
"They might as well go now. They're on their way."
这几乎就是空军的态度
That was an Air Force attitude, pretty much.
我想很多人都没有意识到艾森豪威尔曾说过
I don't think too many people realize that Eisenhower had said
不会有用于与苏联进行局部战争的计划
there's to be no planning for limited war with the Soviets.
在兰德公♥司♥ 我可以全面接触到战争计划
At Rand, I was given full access to the war plans.
我是少数看到那些计划的平民之一
I was one of a handful of civilians who did see these plans,
那些计划既奇怪又可怕
and they were strange and horrible.
可怕极了
Uh, terrible plans.
那些似乎是有史以来最糟糕的计划
They seemed like the worst plans that had ever existed.
艾森豪威尔认为与苏联的任何战争
Eisenhower felt any fighting with Soviets,
即使一开始规模很小
even if it starts small,
也会很快升级为更大规模的战争
is going to escalate very quickly to a larger war.
在艾森豪威尔执政时期这意味着全面核战争
And under Eisenhower, that meant full-scale nuclear war.
我们期待一个和平与合作的世界
We anticipated a world of peace and cooperation.
咄咄逼人的共♥产♥主义蓄意施加的压力
The calculated pressures of aggressive communism
反而迫使我们生活在一个动荡的世界里
have forced us instead to live in a world of turmoil.
计划是用热核武器袭击俄♥罗♥斯♥和中国的每一座城市
The plan was to hit every city in Russia and China with thermonuclear weapons.
用氢弹
H-bombs.
我想如果他们知道总共会有多少人因此丧生
So I thought that it would put them off-balance
他们会大为吃惊的
to know how many people altogether would be killed by this.
因此我起草了一个问题
So I drafted a question, one among many,
作为国防部长提交给参谋长联席会议的众多问题之一
to be given to the Joint Chiefs by the Secretary of Defense.
"如果执行你们的计划
"If you carried out your plans,
仅在俄♥罗♥斯♥和中国就会有多少人丧生呢? "
how many people would be killed in Russia and China alone?"
我真以为他们不会有答案的
I really thought they wouldn't have an answer.
但他们确实有答案而且是最高机密
But they did have an answer, and it was top secret.
只给总统看的
"For the president's eyes only."
这张图表的横轴是"时间" 以月为单位
And it's a graph with, on the horizontal axis, "time" in months,
纵轴是以百万计的死亡人数
and then millions of dead on the vertical axis.
这条线是从2.75亿人开始的
The line began at 275 million people.
在接下来的六个月里随着放射性尘埃造成的死亡人数增加
And it rose, as fallout killed people over the next six months,
数字会上升到3.25 亿人
to 325 million people.
这仅是俄♥罗♥斯♥和中国
This was Russia and China alone.
于是我又提出了我♥草♥拟的另一个问题
So I sent another question that I'd drafted.
"总共会死多少人呢? "
"How many all together?"
他们花了一周时间来回答此问题但这次是以表格的形式
And that just took them a week to answer, but this time in the form of a table.
另有一亿死亡人口在东欧的卫星国波兰
Another hundred million in the satellites of East Europe, Poland,
匈牙利罗马尼亚
and Hungary, Romania.
在西欧另有一亿人口的生死取决于风向
In West Europe, another hundred million depending on which way the wind blew.
还有三亿人口居住在与俄♥罗♥斯♥接壤的地方
And a third hundred million in areas contiguous to the Soviet Union
如阿富汗日本印度
like Afghanistan, Japan, and India.
所以
So the total,
加上俄♥罗♥斯♥和中国的3.25亿人口
in addition to the 325 million in Russia and China,
总死亡人数是6亿
was 600 million.
一百场大屠♥杀♥
A hundred Holocausts.
（苏联和中国）
（总死亡人数）
当时的世界人口
Now, the population of the world at that time
有30亿杀死6亿
was 3,600,000,000.
这是世界人口的五分之一
That's one-fifth of the world's population.
我觉得这是人类历史上
It struck me as the most evil and insane plan
最邪恶和最疯狂的计划
that had ever existed in the history of humanity.
这是体制疯狂
This is institutional insanity.
艾森豪威尔上台后就开始了这项战略
When Eisenhower came in, he initiated this policy.
即"新面貌"战略
The "New Look" policy.
"新面貌"战略是美国首次
"New Look" was, for the first time,
保留进行大规模报复的权利
the Americans reserve the right to use massive retaliation
只要美国认为其重要的国♥家♥安♥全♥利益
if it felt that its vital national security interests
在世界上任何地方受到威胁了
were under threat anywhere in the world.
苏联人立刻转过身来说了同样的话
And the Soviets immediately turned around and said the same thing.
于是他们冻结了战场当然是欧洲战场
So it froze the battlefield, certainly in Europe.
开辟了世界其他地区作为新的战场
And it opened up the entire rest of the world as the new battlefield,
作为两个大国的游乐场
as the playground of the two powers.
在欧洲什么都做不了所以只能去其他地方挑衅
Can't do anything in Europe, so you have to make mischief everywhere else.
于是你就看到了全世界秘密行动的爆发
So that's when you see this explosion around the world of covert operations...
以及两个超级大国所拥有的
and these massive intelligence and defense conglomerates
庞大的情报和国防集团
that both the superpowers have.
令人惊讶的是在第二次世界大战之前
The amazing thing is that prior to World War II,
美国根本没有常设的外国情报机构
the United States never had a permanent foreign intelligence agency at all.
（1945年）
（东德柏林）
中♥央♥情报局的起源
You can trace the roots of the CIA
可以追溯到 1945年夏天柏林的一座大楼
to a mansion in Berlin in the summer of 1945.
欧洲的战争结束了希♥特♥勒♥已死
The war in Europe is over. Hitler is dead.
柏林已成废墟
Berlin is in ruins.
但在市中心一处位置很好的大楼里有两个男人
But in a well-pointed mansion in the center of the city are two men.
一个是艾伦·杜勒斯
One is Allen Dulles,
另一个是他最得意的副手理查德·赫尔姆斯
and the other is his favorite lieutenant, Richard Helms.
他俩都是OSS 即战略情报局的产物
They were both products of the OSS, the Office of Strategic Services.
（战略情报局）
实际上是英国♥军♥情六处