转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E01

Part 1 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

（北约"铁狼"演习立陶宛帕布拉德 2022年10月27日）
如果把冷战定义为一种与拥有核武器的对手发生冲突
If you define a Cold War as a state of conflict with a nuclear-armed opponent
即使双方彼此敌对
where you can't get at each other,
而不能互相攻击的状态
even though you are functionally hostile to each other,
那么我们和俄♥罗♥斯♥人就正处于一场全新的冷战之中
then we're in a new Cold War with the Russians.
（乌克兰基辅）
更多俄军正在出动
More Russian forces on the move.
（2022年2月4日）
俄♥罗♥斯♥远东地区的地对空导弹
Surface-to-air missiles in the country's far east
将加入莫斯科所谓的在乌克兰附近的军事演习
due to join what Moscow says are military exercises near Ukraine.
在某些方面可以说冷战
It's easy in some ways to say that the Cold War ended
已在20世纪80年代末和90年代初结束
in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
但如果你在某一天打开报纸
But if you open the newspaper on any given day,
就会发现我们仍然生活在冷战的余波中
we're still living with the aftermath of the Cold War.
我们可以看到同样的故事仍在上演
What we're seeing is still that story playing out.
（俄♥罗♥斯♥入侵乌克兰）
据报道大批俄♥罗♥斯♥坦克和装甲车
Columns of Russian tanks and armored vehicles
今晚正在越过乌克兰边境
are reported to be pouring across the Ukrainian border tonight.
成群的直升机在乡村上空低空飞行
Swarms of helicopters flying in low over the countryside,
给居住在那里的人们带来恐慌和恐惧
creating panic and terror for the people living there.
经过几个月的准备俄♥罗♥斯♥总统弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥
After months of preparations, the Russian president Vladimir Putin
对乌克兰发动了大规模的军事行动
has launched a major military operation against Ukraine.
乌克兰境内的战争已经开始
The war in Ukraine has begun.
（2022年2月24日）
哦很接近了
Oh. It's close.
普♥京♥执着于乌克兰
Putin is obsessed with Ukraine.
他不是想重建苏联
He does not want to recreate the Soviet Union.
他是想重建沙俄帝国
He wants to recreate the Russian Empire.
（普♥京♥在扩张俄♥罗♥斯♥的战争中将自己比作彼得大帝）
他们把乌克兰视为帝国的一部分苏联的一部分
They see Ukraine as part of their empire, a part of the Soviet Union.
（弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基乌克兰总统）
他们认为乌克兰是他们的遗产
They consider it their legacy,
他们的财产他们想要收回
their property, which they want to take back.
普♥京♥说苏联解体
Putin said the collapse of the Soviet Union
是20世纪最大的地缘政♥治♥灾难
was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.
对他来说赢得乌克兰战争
For him, winning the war in Ukraine is not just, you know,
不仅仅是摧毁乌克兰的国家地位
destroying Ukrainian Statehood.
我认为这场战争基本是冷战结果的重演
I think it's a war to basically replay results of the Cold War.
（俄♥罗♥斯♥入侵冷战回声回荡）
（乌克兰战争引发冷战再起阴影）
冷战确实结束了
The Cold War did end,
但现在我们正在经历着新版本的冷战
but now we are living through a new edition of the Cold War.
这是一场非常危险的冷战
And it's a very dangerous Cold War.
他们怎么能用核武器威胁幅员辽阔的俄♥罗♥斯♥?
How can they threaten the boundless Russia with nuclear weapons
毕竟他们只是一座小岛
when they are only a small island?
这个岛太小了...
The island is so small
（俄♥罗♥斯♥国家电视台）
...一枚萨尔马特导弹就足以彻底将其击沉
that one Sarmat missile is enough to sink it once and for all.
这些人在播放伦敦被核武器击沉的电影
These people showing films of London being vaporized by a nuclear weapon
并在晚间新闻中大肆嘲笑
and laughing about it on the nightly news.
这些都是令人震惊的情况
These are shocking, shocking situations.
任何挑衅的组织者
Organizers of any provocation
试图威胁我国安全的根本利益那他们一定会后悔的...
threatening the fundamental interests of our security will regret it,
（普♥京♥致辞 2021年4月21日）
而且一定会悔之不及
like they haven't regretted anything for a long time.
我们不是在寻求新的冷战
We are not seeking a new Cold War.
我们本以为再也见不到冷战了
It is something that we thought that we would never see again.
我们都看过二战的照片
The pictures that we saw from the Second World War...
我是说现在怎么还会发生这种事?
I mean, right now, how can this be happening?
《转折点：原♥子♥弹♥与冷战》
剧名：《第一章磅礴旭日》
冷战是分阶段开始的
The Cold War, which began in phases,
最终演变为美国及其盟友
ultimately became a global existential struggle
与苏联及其盟友之间的全球生存斗争
between the United States and its allies, and the Soviet Union and its allies.
鼎盛时期冷战触及了每一个大♥陆♥
At its peak, the Cold War touched every continent,
只有南极洲除外
with the exception of Antarctica,
而且几乎触及了世界上的每一个国家
and practically every country in the world.
冷战导致了
It shaped the decolonization
伟大欧洲帝国的非殖民化
of great, large European empires.
塑造了欧洲、北美和亚洲
It shaped domestic politics in the great capitals of Europe...
各国首都的
...North America,
内政情况
and Asia.
对世界上很多人来说
For many, many people around the world,
冷战影响了他们的日常生活
it affected their daily lives.
在某些情况下还会带来死亡
And in some cases, it killed them.
冷战创造了对情报服务的需求
It created a need for intelligence services,
以及对从未消失的秘密活动的需求
for secret activity, that never went away.
（格勒乌总部俄♥罗♥斯♥对外军事情报部门所在地）
要理解弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥ 就不能不提到冷战
Vladimir Putin cannot be understood without reference to the Cold War.
他的世界观
His worldview is a product
是1980年代末 90年代初苏联解体的产物
of the way in which the Soviet Union collapsed in the late '80s and early '90s.
冷战引发了一场军备竞赛几乎改变了美国人生活的方方面面
It set off an arms race that changed virtually everything about American life,
但也确实破坏了全球关系的稳定
but also really destabilized global relationships
在20世纪的大部分时间里
and caused infinite amount of harm around the globe
在全球范围内造成无限的伤害
for most of the 20th century.
看起来十分明显清晰
It seemed so obvious and so clear.
我们非常好
We were so good.
我们的国家最终成为道德高尚的一方
We were the country that finally was virtuous,
而且国力强大
in addition to being powerful.
每位美国人都应该欣然接受这种描述
Everybody in America was supposed to embrace this single narrative.
我们也就必然会受到一股敌对邪恶势力的威胁
And it was logical that we would then be threatened by a hostile,
他们只想要毁灭和虚无主义
evil force that wanted nothing but destruction and nihilism.
冷战是历史上第一场
The Cold War was the first war in history
有可能以世界末日结束的战争
that held the possibility of ending in apocalypse.
这就是它与众不同的地方
That's what made it different.
也是它具有心理威慑的原因
And that's what made it so psychologically threatening.
如果出现差错那可不是会导致一千人死亡
If you got it wrong, we weren't talking about the loss of a thousand people.
也不是会导致一万人死亡
We weren't talking about the loss of, God forbid, 10,000 people.
而是可能导致数百万人死亡
We were talking about the potential loss of millions of people,
甚至十亿人死亡
perhaps a billion people.
这种可怕的程度在政♥治♥家的权力范围内
That was a scale of awfulness that was never before
是前所未有的
within the power of statesmen.
为什么呢? 因为核武器
Why was it there? Because of nuclear weapons.
（亚利桑那州图森市郊外）
核武器的出现助长了冷战
The arrival of nuclear weapons is what helps the Cold War to play out.
二者是无法分开的
They can't be disentangled from one another.
（警告美国空军基地）
何时使用核武器的问题
The question of when to use nuclear weapons
一直困扰着每一个拥有核武器的国家
has always haunted every country that has them.
我不确定如果没有核武器还会不会有冷战
I'm not sure that there would be a Cold War without nuclear weapons.
在核武器的历史上
Over the history of nuclear weapons,
我们曾无数次接近灾难
we've gotten very close to catastrophe numerous times.
我们能幸存不是因为我们聪明
We survived that not because we were smart.
而是因为我们很幸运
It was because we were lucky.
据说爱因斯坦说过
Einstein supposedly said,
"我不知道第三次世界大战会用什么武器
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought,
但第四次世界大战会用棍棒和石头"
but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
这就是我们生活的核世界
So, that's the nuclear world we live in.
一旦人类不再视他人为人类
Once humans stop seeing other humans as human,
最可怕的行为就有可能发生
the most horrific acts are possible.
在我看来有证据表明我们认为已经学到的教训
There seems to me to be evidence that lessons that we thought were learned
其实并没有学到
were not learned,
历史不是历史我们正处于一段持续的浪潮之中
and that history is not history, but we are in an ongoing tide.
（1938年）
核裂变分♥裂♥重元素
Nuclear fission, splitting heavy elements,
是1938年圣诞节期间在纳粹德国
was discovered just at Christmastime in 1938 in Nazi Germany,
柏林
Berlin,
被两位化学家和一位物理学家发现的
by two, curiously, chemists and a physicist.
他们当时正在试验
And they were experimenting with bombarding a solution
用一种叫做中子的亚原子粒子轰击硝酸铀溶液
of uranium nitrate with a particular kind of subatomic particle, called a neutron.
当一个中子进入铀核时
When a neutron enters the uranium nucleus,
就好像月球撞击地球一样
it's rather as if the Moon hit the Earth.
即使中子只是在正常室温下飞行
Even if it's just flying at normal room temperature,
当它进入时也会发生剧烈变化
when it goes in, everything goes crazy.
（氪92 钡141）
一个原子的一次裂变所产生的能量
It's sufficient energy from one fission of one atom
足以使一粒沙子明显地跳跃
to make a grain of sand visibly jump.
能量巨大
It's enormous.
用物理术语来说这是强放热反应
It's very exothermic, in physics terms.