转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E09

Part 1 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

（1989年11月9日）
冷战的结束
The ending of the Cold War
基本被视为一种必然发生的进步
was essentially seen as sort of a inevitable march of progress.
西方的民♥主♥和资本主义
That Western-style democracy and capitalism
已经取得了某种决定性和永久性的胜利
had achieved some kind of definitive and permanent victory
已经战胜了对手
over its adversaries.
其他国家
And that it was only a matter of time
也加入到伴随苏联解体而来的民♥主♥和自♥由♥的浪潮之中
before other countries also joined in this great wave of democratization
只是时间问题了
and freedom that was coming along with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
当然事实并非如此
Of course, it doesn't work out that way,
在很多方面 21世纪的故事
and the story of the 21st century ends up in many ways
都以专♥制♥国家和极权国家
being the re-emergence of authoritarian nations
重新崛起而告终
and totalitarian nations
这些国家再次与自♥由♥和民♥主♥的国家进行斗争
again battling the land of freedom and democracy.
但我们现在的处境比冷战时期要糟糕得多
But we're in a much worse place than we were in the Cold War.
冷战没有使用武器
The Cold War was cold.
现在是一场不稳定的热战
This is a unstable, hot war
可能导致灾难性的后果
which could lead to catastrophic outcomes.
周三俄♥罗♥斯♥进行了核军事演习
Russia is in military staged nuclear exercises on Wednesday
总统弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥全程关注
under the watchful eye of President Vladimir Putin.
演习包括多次弹道导弹发射
The drills included multiple practice launches of ballistic missiles
莫斯科称这是模拟
in what Moscow says was a simulated retaliation
俄♥罗♥斯♥遭受核攻击后的报复行动
for any nuclear attack on Russia.
我担心会有一场灾难没人料到
I worry about a cataclysm that comes about that no one expected,
没人想要
no one wanted,
也没人理解会如何发生
no one understands how it happened.
我们早上醒来世界还是一片和平
That we wake up in the morning and the world is a peaceful place,
而到晚上由于各种偶然的原因
and by that evening, for any number of contingent reasons,
事故误判误解
accidents, miscalculation, misunderstanding,
突然间我们就面临着数十亿人的灭绝
suddenly, we're facing the extinction of billions of people.
没人知道为什么会这样
And no one will know why it happened.
《转折点：原♥子♥弹♥与冷战》
《第九章吾等尚未毁灭》
（慕尼黑安全会议 2007年）
我第一次见到普♥京♥是在2007年2月
I first met Putin in Munich in February 2007,
在慕尼黑安全会议上
at the Munich Security Conference.
我当时任国防部长已有两月
I'd been Secretary of Defense for two months.
场景很有趣因为是在一个大礼堂里
The setting was kind of interesting because it was in this big hall.
普♥京♥和我就隔着一条过道
And Putin was right across the aisle from me.
他旁边是德国总理默克尔
And next to him, was Chancellor Merkel of Germany.
她的旁边是乌克兰总统尤先科
And then next to her was the president of Ukraine, Yushchenko,
他相信是普♥京♥要求对他下毒的
who believed he had been poisoned at Putin's request.
普♥京♥是下一位发言者他站起来
Putin is the next speaker, and he gets up.
他发表了一段惊人的演讲
He gives this extraordinary speech
基本是把世界上所有的错误
in which he basically blames the United States
都归咎于美国
for everything wrong in the world.
首先是美国...
First and foremost, the United States...
美国已经超越国界将其政策强加于各种领域
has overstepped its national borders and imposes its policies in all fields.
包括经济、政♥治♥和人道主义领域
In economy, in politics, and in the humanitarian sphere.
谁会喜欢这样?
Who would like it?
普♥京♥大肆宣扬
Putin makes a big thing about the fact
北约东扩对俄♥罗♥斯♥不利的事实
that NATO enlargement was always hostile to Russia.
我认为很明显北约的扩张
I think it is obvious that NATO expansion
与北约自身现代化或确保欧洲安全
does not have any relation with the modernization of the alliance itself
没有任何关系
or with ensuring security in Europe.
相反这是一种严重的挑衅
On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation
严重损害国家之间的互信
that reduces the level of mutual trust.
随着时间推移北约一直在扩张
NATO has expanded over time.
20世纪90年代北约第一轮扩张是波兰和匈牙利
The first round of NATO enlargement in the 1990s was Poland and Hungary,
还有捷克共和国
and the Czech Republic.
2004年北约第二次东扩
The second NATO enlargement, in 2004,
纳入了三个以前属于苏联的国家
would include three countries that were previously inside the Soviet Union.
波罗的海三国
Three Baltic States.
我们有权提问
We have to ask,
这种扩张是针对谁的?
against whom is this expansion intended?
华约组织解体后
And what happened to the assurances
我们的西方伙伴所作的保证呢?
our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?
那些声明现在在哪里?
Where are those declarations now?
都没人记得了
No one even remembers them.
慕尼黑演讲是阴郁的
The Munich speech is dark,
直接针对西方力量
and it's really coming right at Western power.
这是第一次表达感受到威胁的言论
And for the first time, that language about feeling threatened,
称其在某种意义上被包围了
uh, in a sense, by the encirclement and all of that.
我们不应忘记柏林墙的倒塌
We should not forget that the fall of the Berlin Wall
要感谢一个历史性的选择
was possible thanks to a historic choice,
也是由我国人♥民♥ 由俄♥罗♥斯♥人♥民♥作出的选择
one that was also made by our people, the people of Russia.
我们选择支持民♥主♥和自♥由♥
A choice in favor of democracy, freedom,
支持开放并与欧洲大家庭所有成员
openness, and a sincere partnership
建立真诚的伙伴关系
with all the members of the big European family.
现在他们正试图把新的分界线和墙壁强加给我们
And now they are trying to impose new dividing lines and walls on us.
他是以沙皇的身份演讲的
He was speaking as a tsar.
以大帝的身份
As an emperor.
（维克多·尤先科乌克兰总统 2005-2010）
给欧洲政客发号♥施令告诉他们如何安排欧洲事务
Giving orders to European politicians telling how to arrange things in Europe.
普♥京♥整个演讲过程都在盯着我
Putin spends the entire speech staring right at me.
好像这一切都是我个人的责任
Like I'm kind of personally responsible for all this.
谢谢大家的倾听
Thank you for your attention.
他下台回座时
And after he comes down off the stage, he's coming back to his seat,
他绕道而行径直向我走来
he detours, comes straight to me,
伸出手来与我握手并邀请我访问俄♥罗♥斯♥
extends his hand to shake hands, and invites me to visit Russia.
所以我们刚听了一篇反美檄文
So we'd had this anti-American panegyric,
然后在结尾他过来对我微笑
and then he ends it by coming over and smiling,
跟我握手好像没有什么不寻常的事情发生
shaking my hand and, you know, like nothing unusual had happened.
我觉得大家都把那次当成激昂陈词了
I think we saw it mainly as a rant.
但回想起来那次显然是一个先兆
But in retrospect, it clearly was a harbinger,
因为他清楚地阐明了
because he clearly was articulating
自2007年以来他已经付诸实践的对西方的观点
the views of the West that he has put into practice in the years since 2007.
这为俄♥罗♥斯♥ 日益增长的威权主义奠定了基础
This set the stage for a growing authoritarianism in Russia,
因为普♥京♥试图重建莫斯科的权威
as Putin tried to reassemble authority in Moscow
并将这些国家重新置于莫斯科的影响之下
and bring these countries back under the influence of Moscow.
也为侵略好斗和更具对抗性的俄♥罗♥斯♥
And that set the stage long-term for aggression,
奠定了长♥期♥基础
for a much more confrontational Russia.
很明显曾属于苏联的一部分地方
As it was clear that places that had been part of the Soviet Union
现在开始向西方倾斜
were now going to lean more West,
于是一个不一样的普♥京♥出现了
a different Putin started to emerge.
2008年格鲁吉亚和乌克兰计划加入北约
In 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were planning to become members of NATO,
并在谈判中表现得非常积极
and were negotiating and were very active.
弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥觉得他正在失去这两个国家
So Vladimir Putin felt that he was losing them.
这两个国家是俄♥罗♥斯♥联邦的重要邻国
They're crucial neighbors of Russian Federation,
他知道如果失去它们
and he knew that if he loses both of them,
他就失去了在后苏联地区的
then he loses this status of supervisor and big brother
监督者和老大哥地位
in a post-Soviet region.
（弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥ 第20届北约峰会 2008年4月4日）
关于这一进程并非针对俄♥罗♥斯♥的说法无法被接受
The claim that this process is not directed against Russia, is not accepted.
许多欧洲国家
European countries,
尤其是德国和法国还有其他大国
particularly Germany and France, and other big players,
都不希望他们加入北约
didn't want to have them brought in.
有分♥析♥认为如果格鲁吉亚和乌克兰
There was an assessment that if Georgia and Ukraine
被授予候选成员国资格
were given a membership action plan,
俄♥罗♥斯♥极有可能采取军事行动
then it was highly likely that Russia would react with military action.
因此在布加勒斯特发生的事
So what happened at Bucharest
是最后一刻的幕后妥协
was that there was a last-minute behind-the-scenes compromise.
乌克兰和格鲁吉亚没有获准成为北约候选国
Ukraine and Georgia were not offered a membership action plan,
但他们被告知在未来的某个时刻会准许他们加入北约
but they were told that, at some point, they would get into NATO in the future.
事实证明这是最糟糕的情况
This proved to be the worst of all worlds
因为格鲁吉亚人和乌克兰人
because Georgians and Ukrainians
没有任何保障或保护
had no guarantees or protections whatsoever.
然后在几个月后
Then, within a matter of months,
俄♥罗♥斯♥以一个站不住脚的借口入侵了格鲁吉亚
Russia invaded Georgia on a flimsy pretext.
在经过一夜的炮火和火箭袭击之后
Columns of Russian tanks and troops
成列的俄♥罗♥斯♥坦克和部队今天开进了
rolled into the American-backed former Soviet Republic of Georgia today
以美国为后盾的前苏联国家格鲁吉亚共和国
after a nighttime barrage of artillery fire and rockets.
当一个国家的军队越过另一个国家的边界时
When the army of one country crosses the border of another,