转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E07

Part 3 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

他给予这些人发声的机会
He's given these people a voice.
而他们想要的是该党不准备让步的权力
And they want that which the party's not prepared to concede, power.
到1991年冬春两季又出现了另一个因素
By the winter and spring of 1991, there was another factor.
鲍里斯·叶利钦
Boris Yeltsin.
鲍里斯·叶利钦是另一位共♥产♥党人物
Boris Yeltsin is another Communist Party figure
他与戈尔巴乔夫之间有着非常强烈的竞争
who has a very strong rivalry,
这种竞争变成了一种仇恨一种相互的仇恨
which becomes a hatred, with Gorbachev, a mutual hatred.
他们两人是敌人
The two of them are real enemies.
鲍里斯·叶利钦于1985年被戈尔巴乔夫带到莫斯科
Boris Yeltsin was brought to Moscow by Gorbachev in 1985
成为这座城市的共♥产♥党领导人
to become the city's Communist Party boss.
叶利钦!
Yeltsin! Yeltsin!
叶利钦立即向官僚机构发难
Yeltsin immediately took on the bureaucracy,
解雇了数百名腐♥败♥的贸易官员
firing hundreds of corrupt trade officials.
他的非正统风格为他赢得了大批追随者
His unorthodox style won him a wide following,
但他也扮演了戈尔巴乔夫批评者的角色
but he also played the role of Gorbachev critic,
这让他陷入了麻烦
and that got him into trouble.
他觉得我太激进了
He considers me to be too radical.
我们做每件事情都必须非常小心谨慎
We have to do everything very carefully and cautiously.
但人们非常急躁
But people are very impatient.
（1989年9月11日）
他们已经等了四年不能再等一年了
They've been waiting for four years, and they can't wait another year.
必须在一年内做点什么吗?
Something has to be done within a year?
是的
Yes.
如果没做会发生什么呢?
If not, then what happens?
一场自下而上的革命将拉开帷幕
A revolution from below will begin.
叶利钦和戈尔巴乔夫代表了
Yeltsin and Gorbachev represent,
俄♥罗♥斯♥思维模式的两个不同方面
uh, two different aspects of the Russian mindset.
戈尔巴乔夫的思维模式是当你想改变时
Gorbachev's mindset is, when you want change,
你应该思考应该听取别人的建议
you should think and you should take other people's advice.
叶利钦则代表了一部分俄♥罗♥斯♥人的思维模式
Yeltsin represents a part of the Russian mindset
他们相信事情会在一夜之间发生改变
that believes in changing things overnight.
他是一个非常急躁的人
He was a very impatient person,
但他们之间确实有一些共同点
but it's true that there was something in common between them,
那就是认为
and that is the understanding
以前的制度应该被取代
that the previous system should be replaced.
与戈尔巴乔夫不同的是
Yeltsin, in contrast to Gorbachev,
叶利钦认为民族主义是未来的潮流
figures out that nationalism is the wave of the future.
我们认为共♥产♥主义作为一种意识形态作为一种信仰体系基本上是糟糕的
We see communism being basically bad as ideology, as a system of belief.
人们在寻找其他选择
People were looking for alternatives,
其中一个选择当然就是
and one of those alternatives was, of course,
国家和民族主义思想
ideas of nation and nationalism.
叶利钦说："苏联正在土崩瓦解
Yeltsin says, "The Soviet Union is crumbling."
俄♥罗♥斯♥需要由我来掌管而明智的做法
"I need to be in charge of Russia, so I think the smart move,
就是与党决裂尽管戈尔巴乔夫并没有这样做
which Gorbachev isn't doing, is to break with the party
叶利钦努力把自己打造成俄♥罗♥斯♥领导人而不是苏联领导人"
and to try to establish myself as a Russian leader, not a Soviet leader."
今晚在大会召开的第十天
Tonight, on the tenth day of this congress,
戈尔巴乔夫先生极力避免的打击来了
came the blow Mr. Gorbachev had tried so hard to avoid.
（1990年7月12日）
鲍里斯·叶利钦作为激进改革的终极象征
Boris Yeltsin, the ultimate symbol of radical reforms
也可以说是俄♥罗♥斯♥最受欢迎的政♥治♥家
and arguably the country's most popular politician,
他要求在大会上发言宣布他要退出共♥产♥党
asked for the floor to announce he was leaving the Communist Party.
鉴于在自♥由♥选举期间做出的承诺
In the light of promises made in the free election period,
我宣布退出共♥产♥党
I announce my leaving the party.
以期有更多的机会对苏维埃的活动
In order to have greater opportunity to exert more effective influence
施加更有效的影响
on the activities of the Soviets,
我愿意与俄♥罗♥斯♥共和国的所有政党
I am willing to cooperate with all parties and sociopolitical organizations
以及社会政♥治♥组织合作
in the Russian Republic.
戈尔巴乔夫插话了
Mr. Gorbachev interjected.
但那时叶利钦已经背弃这次大会
By then, Yeltsin had turned his back on this congress
背弃他的党内生涯走出去了
and a lifetime in this party, and walked out.
与在苏联的政♥治♥选举不同叶利钦在俄♥罗♥斯♥的政♥治♥选举中
Yeltsin becomes very active in Russian electoral politics,
变得非常活跃
as opposed to Soviet electoral politics,
他在选举中大获成功
and he's resoundingly successful in that.
（1991年6月12日）
鲍里斯·叶利钦在俄♥罗♥斯♥共和国首次总统选举中
Boris Yeltsin has defeated his communist rivals
击败了他的共♥产♥党人对手
in the Russian Republic's first presidential election.
他以压倒性优势当选俄♥罗♥斯♥联邦总统
He was the landslide winner for president of the Russian Federation,
成为了这个幅员辽阔的国家千年历史上第一位
the first freely-elected leader in the 1,000-year history
自♥由♥选举产生的领导人
of that vast country.
（俄♥罗♥斯♥首位总统就职典礼）
莫斯科现在是两个政♥府♥的所在地
Moscow would now be the seat of two governments.
叶利钦领导的俄♥罗♥斯♥共和国
The Russian Republic, headed by Yeltsin,
以及戈尔巴乔夫领导的克里姆林宫政♥权♥
and the Kremlin regime of Gorbachev.
但只有叶利钦是通过普选当选的
But only Yeltsin had been elected by popular vote.
所以到1991年夏天
So, by the summer of 1991,
叶利钦已经成为俄♥罗♥斯♥的强权总统了
Yeltsin had become powerful as the president of Russia.
戈尔巴乔夫岌岌可危了
Gorbachev is hanging on by a thread.
苏联各地都在开展独♥立♥运动
There are independence movements all over the Soviet Union,
他在试图把他们团结起来
and he's trying to hold it together.
戈尔巴乔夫的想法是签订一项新的联盟条约
The idea that Gorbachev developed was to have a new union treaty
把苏联
to convert the Soviet Union
从一个靠武力维系的帝国转变为一个自愿的联盟
from an empire held together by force into a voluntary association.
这15个共和国自愿同意协同合作
The 15 republics would all voluntarily agree to work together
拥护同一个国家拥有同一个首都
in a single country with a single capital,
但拥有更多的地方自治权给予各共和国更多的自治权
but with more local autonomy, more autonomy given to the republics.
他认为各共和国之间
He believed that a new, voluntary union
可以通过谈判建立一个全新的自愿的联盟
could be negotiated between the republics,
在经济和社会政策方面
giving the republics a lot of latitude
给与各共和国相当大的自♥由♥度
in their economic and social policies.
经济是完全相互关联的
The economy was totally interconnected.
不仅是使用单一货币
Not only a single currency,
行业之间也是完全相互关联的
but industries were completely interconnected.
因此把整个苏联拆分成几个独♥立♥体
So to unscramble the whole of the Soviet Union into separate parts
在经济上似乎毫无意义
didn't seem to make economic sense.
但这是一次现代化的尝试也是一次赋予未来的尝试
But it was an attempt to modernize and to give it a future.
苏联还会存在吗? -会的我确定
Will the Soviet Union remain? - Yes, I'm sure.
百分百确定 -未来会是怎样的呢?
Absolutely sure. - What future will it be?
必须是
You have to be
完全无知或不负责任的人
a completely ignorant or irresponsible person
才会持有其他观点
to hold any other opinion.
我们所有生活在这个广袤国家的人都需要苏联的保护
All of us living here in the vast country need the preservation of the Soviet Union.
各共和国的领导人对此非常不安
The leaders of the republics are antsy about this.
与此同时
And, at the same time,
军方安♥全♥部♥门的领导人克格勃的领导人
the leaders of the security apparatus of the military, the KGB,
大型国有企业的领导人他们现在都讨厌戈尔巴乔夫了
the big state industries, they hate Gorbachev by now.
他们都恨他
They hate him.
他们觉得他软弱无能
They think he's weak
一切都要完蛋了
and everything's going to hell in a handbasket.
亚纳耶夫及其亲信明确表示他们不相信西方
Yanayev and his henchmen have made it clear they distrust the West
也不相信市场经济的力量
and market economic forces,
最近几周他们的挫败感与日俱增
and their frustration has grown in recent weeks.
我们一群人接到的任务是
A group of us were tasked,
"如果苏联解体做一些情景规划"
"Do some scenario planning if the Soviet Union were to collapse."
我们甚至不会在日历上写上我们要开会
We wouldn't even put it on our calendars that we were meeting.
只是写成"跟丹尼斯·罗斯会面"
It just said, "Meeting with Dennis Ross."
这么机密吗? -是的没人知道
It was secret? - It was. Nobody knew.
我们每周凑在一起一次
We would get together, kind of once a week,
规划一些情景
and just do scenarios.
其中之一就是可能会发生针对戈尔巴乔夫的政♥变♥
And one was that there might be a coup against Gorbachev.
我们要警告他吗?
Would we warn him?
在什么情况下我们要警告他?
Under what circumstances would we warn him?
政♥府♥内部也发生了一些争论
And there was a little bit of a debate in the administration.
我们要推波助澜吗?
Should we try to hasten it along?
我记得国防部长切尼更倾向于
I remember that Defense Secretary Cheney
"我们应该推波助澜"
was a little bit more on the, "We should push it along."
劳伦斯·伊格尔伯格曾经说过
Larry Eagleburger once said,
"在肢解他们前先解除他们的武装"
"Let's disarm them before we dismember them,"
因为这是一个核大国
because this was a nuclear power.
一个核大国的解体意味着什么呢?
What would it mean for a nuclear power to come undone?
戈尔巴乔夫去度假了
Gorbachev goes on vacation.
认为他度假回来后他们会签署新的联盟条约
Presumably he'll come back from vacation and they'll sign this new union treaty.
在他度假期间克格勃领导人弗拉基米尔·克留奇科夫
While he's on vacation, the leader of the KGB, Vladimir Kryuchkov,