转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E09

Part 4 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

Or in Ukraine in 2013 and '14.
但局势变得非常紧张
But things became very tense
因为俄♥罗♥斯♥政♥府♥认为
because the Russian government believed
我们推♥翻♥了普♥京♥在基辅的亲信维克多·亚努科维奇
that we had just overthrown Putin's guy in Kyiv, Viktor Yanukovych,
害他逃往俄♥罗♥斯♥
who's now in Russia.
我们说我们没有操纵没有策划政♥变♥
And we said we didn't control that, that we were not plotting a coup,
但弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥不是这样认为的
but that is not the way that Vladimir Putin perceived it.
我是说他无法相信这不是阴谋
I mean, he just can't believe that this isn't some sinister plot.
我记得很清楚他曾说过
I remember very vividly saying,
"莫斯科会做出回应的"
"There's going to be a response from Moscow."
果然几天后他入侵了克里米亚
And sure enough, days later, that's when he invaded Crimea.
（克里米亚）
克里米亚半岛一直是苏联和俄♥罗♥斯♥精英们
The Crimean Peninsula was long a favorite vacation spot
最喜欢的度假胜地
for the Soviet and the Russian elite.
早在18世纪这里就成为了
It had been made part of the Russian Empire
俄♥罗♥斯♥帝国的一部分
back in the 18th century.
普♥京♥一再提醒我们这一点
Putin has reminded us of this over and over again.
那里也是一处现代意义上的战略要地
It also was a strategic location in a modern-day sense
因为那里有一个巨大的俄♥罗♥斯♥海军基地
because there's this huge Russian navy base there.
弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥ 真的希望争取到乌克兰
Vladimir Putin really wants Ukraine back as part of,
从而重回苏联的辉煌岁月
you know, the glory days of the Soviet Union.
但他也特别想要克里米亚
But he very specifically also wants Crimea.
（广场起义乌克兰基辅 2014年2月）
2014年2月
In February 2014,
可以想象乌克兰当时一片混乱
Ukraine was in disarray, as you can imagine.
当时有一位临时总统
There was an interim president,
有报道称
and there were reports of
没有任何国家标志的准军事组织
paramilitaries without any country's insignia
接管了克里米亚的基础设施、行政大楼和军事基地
taking over infrastructure, administration buildings, and military bases in Crimea,
那里是俄♥罗♥斯♥黑海舰队总部所在地
where the Russian Black Sea Fleet were headquartered.
情况很复杂没人知道发生了什么
It was very murky. Nobody knew what was happening.
但现场的记者开始意识到
But the reporters on the ground started to realize
这些人是俄♥罗♥斯♥人
that these were Russians who had been sent in
他们被派来控制俄♥罗♥斯♥的领土
to take control of the territory for Russia.
今天早上据称三处机场被关闭其中两处是军方机场
Three airports, two of them used by the military,
这些机场可能已由俄♥罗♥斯♥军队控制
are said to be closed and possibly under the control of Russian forces.
我们现在看到的似乎是一个开端
What we appear to be seeing is the sort of beginnings
这是一场由俄♥罗♥斯♥政♥府♥推动的
of a separatist rebellion that is being fueled and facilitated
分♥裂♥主义叛乱
by the Russian government.
当时俄♥罗♥斯♥试图假装自己与此事无关
At the time, Russia was trying to pretend that it wasn't involved
仿佛这是克里米亚的一场人♥民♥力量运动
and that this was kind of a people power movement in Crimea.
但实际上很多抗♥议♥
But a lot of the protests were actually staged
都是由俄♥罗♥斯♥和俄♥罗♥斯♥军方策划的
by Russia and the Russian military,
很多俄♥罗♥斯♥人乘坐大巴来参加了这些抗♥议♥活动
and a lot of Russians were bussed in to participate in those protests.
我要对乌克兰人♥民♥说
I address the people of Ukraine.
我真心希望你们能理解我们
I would sincerely like you to understand us.
（2014年3月18日）
我们绝不想伤害你们也不想冒犯你们的国家意识
By no means do we want to do you harm or offend your sense of nationality.
但与之相反他吞并了克里米亚
But instead, he annexed Crimea
并使其成为了俄♥罗♥斯♥领土的组成部分
and made it a constituent territory of Russia.
不久之后
And then, shortly thereafter,
在乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区我们看到一个又一个城镇落入了
we saw town after town falling to people who declared themselves
宣称自己是亲俄分♥裂♥分子的人手中
to be pro-Russia separatists in the Eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.
顿涅茨克地方电视台一片恐慌
Panic at Donetsk regional TV station.
（乌克兰东部 2014年4月7日）
记者们逃往安全的地方警♥察♥就位
Journalists flee to safety, police take up positions
击退了不明身份枪手的袭击
and repel an attack by unidentified gunmen.
鉴于俄♥罗♥斯♥在乌克兰的持续挑衅
Given its continued provocations in Ukraine,
今天我批准了一系列新的制裁措施
today I have approved a new set of sanctions
（2014年7月16日）
针对俄♥罗♥斯♥一些大型公♥司♥和金融机构
on some of Russia's largest companies and financial institutions.
美国和其他国家发布了一些制裁措施
The US and other countries issue some sanctions,
但国际社会几乎没有对此表示愤慨
but there's very little international outrage.
他们没有惩罚普♥京♥ 没有孤立普♥京♥
They didn't punish Putin. They didn't isolate Putin.
没有停止购买♥♥普♥京♥的石油和天然气
They didn't stop buying Putin's oil and gas.
我们再次看到普♥京♥意识到只要他愿意出战
Once again, we see Putin realizing that if he's willing to fight,
那他基本上就可以得到他想要的
then he can essentially get away with what he wants,
没有人会试图阻止他
and nobody's going to try to stop him.
（格鲁乌总部）
（俄♥罗♥斯♥对外军事情报中心俄♥罗♥斯♥ 莫斯科）
吞并克里米亚后
After the annexation of Crimea,
军方在网络上变得更加活跃
the military became much more active in cyber.
俄♥罗♥斯♥高级将领普♥京♥的亲信瓦列里·格拉西莫夫
Top Russian general Valery Gerasimov,
呼吁进行一场新型战争
who has President Vladimir Putin's ear, called for a new kind of warfare.
（瓦列里·格拉西莫夫俄♥罗♥斯♥总参谋长）
多年来普♥京♥对互联网漠不关心
For many years, Putin paid no attention to the Internet.
他主要是沉迷于电视媒体
He was mostly obsessed with television.
他相信电视可以让他
He believed that television was a thing which might get him control
控制俄♥罗♥斯♥人♥民♥
of the Russian population.
2014年克里米亚被吞并时情况变了
By 2014, the time of the annexation of Crimea, that changed.
普♥京♥认为分♥裂♥西方无论是国家之间还是国家内部
Putin believes that dividing the West, both between countries and within them,
都符合俄♥罗♥斯♥的国家利益
serves Russia's national interests.
如果我们自相残杀就不会针对他了
If we're fighting amongst ourselves, we're not fighting against him.
现代的俄♥罗♥斯♥国家已经学会了
The modern Russian state has learned how to use,
如何使用社交媒体来制♥造♥虚假舆♥论♥
in particular, social media, in order to create false narratives
并使其在西方国家传播
and to make them spread through Western countries,
他们用多种语言在很多国家这样做
and they do it in many languages and in many countries.
什么看起来会引发分♥裂♥
Whatever seems divisive,
什么看起来可能引起社会紧张
whatever seems likely to cause social tension,
他们都会进行宣传
they promote that.
在德国他们宣扬极右翼
In Germany, they promote the far right.
在一些国家他们宣扬极左翼
In some countries, they promoted the far left.
在美国他们也宣扬极右翼
In the United States, they also promote the far right and of course,
他们还支持唐纳德·特朗普的竞选活动
they promoted famously the campaign of Donald Trump.
（让美国再次伟大! 加入佛罗里达州特朗普集♥会♥! ）
这种干预和侵入美国选举进程的想法
This idea to interfere and to hack the US electoral process
在2004年吞并克里米亚后就立刻形成了
took shape in the immediate aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
俄♥罗♥斯♥是一个地区大国...
Russia is a regional power
（2014年3月25日）
威胁着它的一些近邻
that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors...
不是因为强大而是因为软弱
not out of strength, but out of weakness.
奥巴马提到普♥京♥ 提到俄♥罗♥斯♥是一个地区大国
Obama referring to Putin and to Russia of being a regional power,
而且俄♥罗♥斯♥非常软弱
and Russia being very weak,
普♥京♥接受了这些评价
Putin takes all of this onboard.
在某种程度上这些话会刺♥激♥到他
In a way, it kind of incites him.
能让他兴奋起来
It, you know, revs him up.
他觉得不仅他个人被轻视了
He feels that he's not just being disrespected personally,
俄♥罗♥斯♥也被轻视了
but Russia has been.
他尤其想给奥巴马总统上一课
And he wants to teach President Obama in particular,
也想给国务卿希拉里·克♥林♥顿♥上一课
but also then Hillary Clinton, his Secretary of State
也想给美国好好上一课
and the United States writ large,
他想给每个人都上一课
he wants to give everyone... a lesson.
普♥京♥对希拉里·克♥林♥顿♥的敌意
Putin had a particular animus toward Hillary Clinton
甚至可以追溯到她担任美国国务卿之前
that went back even before then when she was a US Secretary of State.
他说她在俄♥罗♥斯♥各个城市的街道上
He said that somehow she had orchestrated
策划了大规模的抗♥议♥活动
huge protests in the streets all across Russian cities.
所以在唐纳德·特朗普参加竞选之前
So, even before Donald Trump got into the race,
他就对美国有这种不满了
he had this rage toward the United States.
然后出现了一位共和党候选人
And then here comes this Republican candidate,
多年以来他一直是弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥的公开崇拜者
who actually is a years-long open admirer of Vladimir Putin.
如果他说我好话我也会说他好话
If he says great things about me, I'll say great things about him.
我已经说过了他是一位优秀的领导人
I've already said he is really very much of a leader.
你可以说："这不是很糟糕吗? "
You can say, "Isn't that a terrible thing?"
这个人对国家有很强的控制力
The man has very strong control over a country.
那是一个非常不同的体制我不喜欢那种体制
It's a very different system, and I don't happen to like the system,
但在那样的体制下
but certainly in that system,
他的领导能力远远超过了我们的总统
he's been a leader far more than our president.
我们的国家四分五裂...
We have a divided country...
通过脸书群组
Through Facebook groups,
通过推特和其他现代流行的表达方式
through Twitter and other popular modes of expression of the modern era,
普♥京♥和他的情报机构以及他们心甘情愿的仆从喷子们
Putin, his intelligence service and their willing minions, the trolls,
发布了数以千万计的谎言
put out literally tens of millions of falsehoods.
吸引了大约三分之一的美国公民
And engaged roughly a third of the American citizenry.
技术的转变使全世界都能在网上获取信息
The technological shift to the world getting its information online
这使得虚假信息影响人们生活的能力
has made a huge difference in the ability of disinformation to have an impact
影响人们对政♥府♥和政策看法的能力