转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E07

Part 7 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

我们请纳扎尔巴耶夫总统安排
We asked President Nazarbayev to arrange for me,
让我和技术专家一起参观位于乌斯季卡缅诺戈尔斯克的工厂
with a technical expert, to visit the factory at Ust-Kamenogorsk
核实这种高浓缩铀的存在
to verify the presence of this highly-enriched uranium.
他说："好的"
And he said, "Yes."
然后他转身对他的将军说："去安排吧"
And he turned to his general and said, "Make it happen."
大约一个月后橡树岭国家实验室的专家
About a month or so later, an expert named Elwood Gift,
艾尔伍德·吉福特来到哈萨克斯坦
from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, came out to Kazakhstan.
第二天早上我们开始参观工厂
And then the next morning, we started the tour of the factory.
那里有一些木制的推拉门有点像监狱的栅栏
There were these wooden sliding doors, sort of like prison bars,
还有一个挂锁就像在古董店里看到的那样
and a padlock that you'd see in an antique shop.
就像内战时期的挂锁
It was like a Civil War-era padlock.
那里有一个大平台和一些不锈钢桶
And there was a big platform and stainless-steel buckets,
上面写着内装高浓缩铀
ostensibly with highly-enriched uranium in them.
它们是非常稳定的除非在一个地方存放太多
It's pretty stable, unless you have too much of it in one place,
但是为了安全起见它们被隔开了
but they were spaced out for criticality safety,
所以不会达到临界质量否则是极端危险的
so they wouldn't reach a critical mass, which could be very, very, uh, dangerous.
我们用他们的设备做了一些测试
We did some testing with their equipment
能够证实
and were able to verify
浓缩水平是90%到91%
that the enrichment level was 90 to 91%.
从那时起华盛顿开始快速应对
And that's when Washington went into high gear.
这是一项巨大的后勤挑战
It was a huge logistical challenge.
我们有数百个这种特殊的裂变材料运输罐
We had hundreds of these special fissile material transport canisters.
出于临界安全考虑
For criticality safety reasons,
只能在每个桶中运输少量的铀
you could only transport small amounts of uranium in each barrel.
然后我们把它们装上工厂里
And then we loaded them up onto these Soviet-era trucks
苏联时代的卡车
at the factory.
（国防部录像 1994年11月18日凌晨3：00）
那是一个非常寒冷的夜晚
It was a very, very cold night
下着细雨路上结着黑色的冰
with a wet rain and black ice on the roads.
当然那种时候材料最容易被截获
And, of course, that's when the material is most vulnerable to interception.
如果你是坏人那就是你的机会
If you're a bad guy, that's your chance.
那是你拦截这些材料的机会
That's your opportunity to intercept this material.
也许截下一辆卡车杀死司机然后开走
Maybe take one truck, kill the driver, and drive off.
所以我们非常担心保密的问题
So, we were extremely concerned about the secrecy.
我们到达机场了
We made it to the airfield.
我们开始把它们装上货机
We started the process to load them onto the cargo plane.
这些卡车在滑行
And these trucks were sliding.
我很担心我们无法成功
I was very concerned that we weren't gonna make it.
这些材料和空中补给燃油被一起空运到
So the material was flown, without any stops,
田纳西州的橡树岭没有任何停留
with aerial refuelings to Oak Ridge, Tennessee,
并在那里被运送到Y-12工厂
where it was brought to the Y-12 plant.
（1994年11月23日）
昨天国防部和能源部
Yesterday, the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy
完成了一项高度重要...
completed a high-priority,
（威廉·佩里美国国防部长 1994-1997）
...极端敏感的任务我们称之为"蓝宝石计划"
extremely sensitive mission, which we call Project Sapphire.
我们刚刚将足以制♥造♥...
We have just placed, in safe hands,
（危险）
...20多枚核装置的前苏联武器库中的核材料
enough nuclear material from the former Soviet arsenal
交到了安全的人员手中
to make more than 20 nuclear devices.
在那段时间里我想我们没有意识到
During the time, I don't think we realized,
我肯定没有意识到
I certainly didn't realize,
蓝宝石计划有多重要
how important Project Sapphire was.
这是五角大楼第一次做这种事
This was really the first time the Pentagon had done something like this.
不是出去打仗
It wasn't going out and fighting a war.
而是为了避免灾难的发生
This was preventing a catastrophe from happening.
我们赞赏纳扎尔巴耶夫总统以及哈萨克斯坦政♥府♥
We applaud President Nazarbayev and the Kazakhstan government
为使世界更安全和更有保障作出的贡献
for helping to make the world safer and more secure.
那是一项总额约为3000万美元的庞大援助计划
It was a huge package of about $30 million of assistance.
这是一笔合适的交易因为可以想象
And it was a bargain, because you can imagine,
为了这么多的材料伊朗人愿意支付数十亿美元
for this much material, the Iranians would have paid billions.
我们达成了购买♥♥铀的协议
We made a deal to buy the uranium.
高浓缩铀将混合成低浓缩铀
It would be blended down.
我们会在我们的发电厂里将其燃烧转化为民用核能
We'd burn it as civilian nuclear power in our power plants.
在大约十年的时间里美国十分之一的电力
One-tenth of the electricity in America, um, during that approximately ten-year period,
都来自安装在发射系统上的武器
was coming from weapons, uh, mounted on delivery systems
这些武器可以摧毁美国或任何其他国家
that could have destroyed America or any other country.
这是我们有史以来花费的最重要的国防资金
It was the most important defense money we ever spent
以避免无数可能发生的灾难
in terms of avoiding an untold number of possible catastrophes.
苏联解体后
When the Soviet Union dissolved,
白俄♥罗♥斯♥人和哈萨克斯坦人同意将核武器
the Belarusians and Kazakhs agreed to turn over their nuclear weapons
交给俄♥罗♥斯♥人或者将其销毁
to the Russians, or destroy them.
乌克兰人没有很快决定交出这些武器
Ukrainians, not so quick to decide to turn these weapons over.
（乌克兰 1992年2月）
在基辅以南65公里的白采尔科维
Deep inside its secret forest site at Bila Tserkva,
秘密森林基地深处
40 miles south of Kiev,
一枚核弹头被小心地从导弹和发射台上拆下
a nuclear warhead is carefully removed from its missile and launchpad.
核弹头并不大但威力相当于炸毁广岛的原♥子♥弹♥
It's not large, but it's equal to the bomb that demolished Hiroshima.
乌克兰承诺销毁其176枚导弹中的136枚
The Ukraine is pledged to destroy 136 of its 176 missiles
遵守《削减战略武器条约》
under the START disarmament program,
但没有人知道剩下的40枚导弹会怎么样
but no one is certain what happens to the remaining 40
也不知道在公开市场上的价格是多少
or what their price is on the open market.
每个人都想确保这些武器得到控制
Everybody wanted to be sure that these weapons were under control.
乌克兰此时已成为民♥主♥国家
Ukraine, at this point, has become a democracy.
拥有超过5000万人口
It has over 50 million people,
同时也是世界第三大核大国
and is the world's third-biggest nuclear power.
乌克兰人不愿意放弃这种威慑力量
The Ukrainians were reluctant to give up this deterrent
因为这可以保障他们的安全
that could provide them security.
他们想要某种保证让乌克兰的安全
They wanted some kind of guarantee that Ukrainian security,
乌克兰的主♥权♥
Ukrainian sovereignty,
乌克兰的领土完整得到捍卫
Ukrainian territorial integrity, would be defended.
美国人英国人俄♥罗♥斯♥人乌克兰人
There were negotiations, Americans, the Brits, the Russians, Ukrainians,
就如何处理这些武器进行了谈判
about what to do with these weapons.
最终在布达佩斯签署了一份备忘录
In a memorandum eventually signed in Budapest,
乌克兰人迫于压力
the Ukrainians agreed, under pressure,
同意放弃这些核武器将其销毁或运回俄♥罗♥斯♥
to give up these nuclear weapons, to destroy or send them back to Russia.
乌克兰正式宣布放弃核武器
Ukraine formally renounced nuclear arms
加入《核不扩散条约》
by joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
乌克兰将加入白俄♥罗♥斯♥和哈萨克斯坦的行列
Ukraine will join Belarus and Kazakhstan
在本世纪末成为无核国家
in becoming nuclear-free by the end of the century.
布达佩斯备忘录的措辞很微妙
The language of the Budapest Memorandum was tricky.
谈判代表决定使用"保证"一词而不是"确保"
Negotiators settled on the word "assurance," not "guarantee."
"保证"和"确保"两词之间的区别可能看起来很小
The difference between the words "assurance" and "guarantee"
但其实在军事术语中非常重要
might seem slight, but they are actually very significant in military terms.
"确保"意味着当你遇到麻烦时
A guarantee means you have a high chance that, when you're in trouble,
第82空降师就会前来
the 82nd Airborne is coming,
而"保证"不会
and an assurance does not.
所以这是一个悬而未决的问题
So that's one of the open questions,
他们是否应该更努力地争取更好的协议?
should they have pressed harder for a better deal?
不过这一刻很重要 -是的顺便说一下
Quite a moment, though. - Yeah, and also, by the way,
当时有乌克兰人知道这一点
there were Ukrainians at the time who knew this.
参与《布达佩斯备忘录》的乌克兰谈判代表说
There were Ukrainian negotiators involved in the Budapest Memorandum who said,
"我们知道这并不能真正保护我们免受俄♥罗♥斯♥的侵害
"We know that this is not really going to protect us from Russia."
我们真正想要的是当最糟糕的事情发生时
"What we really want is a guaranteed world hearing when,
确保全世界都能听到"
you know, the worst happens."
"我们想要一个论♥坛♥ 一个平台
"We want a forum. We want a platform."
想要一个麦克风
"We want a microphone."
想要一个理由在俄♥罗♥斯♥入侵的时候告诉全世界
"We want a reason to tell the world when Russia invades us."
这是我们能得到的最佳结果了"
"That's the best we're gonna get here."
他们知道俄♥罗♥斯♥会入侵他们 -他们知道是的
They knew that Russia could invade them. - They knew, yeah.
知道俄♥罗♥斯♥是一个巨大的威胁
There was a threat from Russia. Yes.
当时有一个克格勃的小人物
At that time, there was this minor KGB guy,
在柏林墙倒塌的时候他在东德的一个小前哨
who was in a minor outpost in East Germany, in Dresden,
就在德累斯顿
during the fall of the Berlin Wall.
他的职务很低
He was really minor.
他的名字叫弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥ 他可能是个值得记住的人
Vladimir Putin is his name. He's probably somebody to remember.
虽然听起来很可悲或可怕
As sad or scary as it might sound,
但在我看来我们国家可能会出现
in my view, a short period of totalitarianism
一段短暂的极权主义时期
in our country is possible.
（弗拉基米尔·普♥京♥ 1992年）
他从来不是西方的朋友他总是对西方持怀疑态度
He was never a friend to the West. He was always suspicious of the West.
我们俄♥罗♥斯♥人倾向于相信
We Russians tend to believe,
我不会隐瞒我会倾向于这样想
and I won't hide the fact that I'm inclined to think this way,