转折点：原子弹与冷战（2024）

Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War S01E07

Part 1 March 18, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

（乌克兰）
在苏联历史和当代历史上
Ukraine's role in both Soviet and contemporary history
乌克兰作用都是无可估量的
really cannot be overestimated.
普♥京♥认为那是俄♥罗♥斯♥的诞生地
And Putin has this idea that it's really where Russia was born,
是俄♥罗♥斯♥不可分割的一部分
and it's an integral part of Russia.
没有什么能比数百万人的决心更强大
Nothing is stronger than the determination of millions,
（2022年9月30日）
在文化、宗教、传统和语言方面
who, by their culture, religion, traditions, and language
他们都认为自己是俄♥罗♥斯♥的一部分
consider themselves part of Russia,
他们的祖先在一个国家内生活了几个世纪
whose ancestors lived in a single country for centuries.
普♥京♥谈到弗拉基米尔·列♥宁♥
Putin talks about the fact that Vladimir Lenin,
和约瑟夫·斯大林在1922年和1923年犯下了一个巨大的错误
along with Joseph Stalin, made a huge mistake back in 1922, 1923,
那就是建立了一个独♥立♥的乌克兰共和国
in creating a standalone Ukrainian Republic.
乌克兰只是俄♥罗♥斯♥的边境地带
Ukraine is just the borderlands of Russia.
这是普♥京♥对俄♥罗♥斯♥历史的解读
This is Putin's reading of Russian history.
在他看来
From his point of view,
独♥立♥的乌克兰根本不可能存在
an independent Ukraine just couldn't exist.
在我与一位非常高级的官员的上一次会面中
One of the last meetings I had with a very senior official,
他是当时与普♥京♥ 关系最亲密的人之一他对我说
one of the closest people to Putin at the time, he said to me,
"迈克如果乌克兰局势变得紧张你需要记住两件事
"Mike, if things get hot in Ukraine, you need to remember two things."
第一我们比你们更在乎
"One, we care more than you do."
这件事对美♥利♥坚♥合众国来说
"This is more important to us than it'll ever be
远不如对我们来说更重要
to the United States of America."
第二你们这些人你们的关注持续时间很短
"And two, you people, you have really short attention spans."
而我们不是"
"We don't."
无论付出什么代价
"Whatever it takes,
我们都会来到这里因为我们更在乎
we will be here because we care more
而且我们会在这里长久地待下去"
and we're gonna be here for the long haul."
《转折点：原♥子♥弹♥与冷战》
《第七章历史终结》
1989年底冷战秩序开始瓦解
At the end of 1989, the Cold War order is crumbling.
可以感觉到苏联正在失去其地位
You could feel that the Soviet Union was losing, uh, its position.
柏林墙的意外打开
You have the accidental opening of the wall,
让德国统一的问题突然被摆上桌面
which now all of a sudden puts German unification on the table.
所以戈尔巴乔夫应接不暇了
So Gorbachev has more than he can handle.
他已经无法控制局面了
He can no longer control it.
然后还有无数问题
And there's a million questions.
接下来会如何? 德国的分♥裂♥会走向何方?
What comes next? What happens to the division of Germany?
欧洲分♥裂♥ 以及北约和华约会怎么样?
What happens to the division of Europe and to NATO and the Warsaw Pact?
戈尔巴乔夫会怎么样? 苏联会怎么样?
What happens to Gorbachev? What happens to the Soviet Union?
谁掌握着核武器按钮?
Who's got their hand on the nuclear trigger?
到1988年和1989年戈尔巴乔夫
Gorbachev, by 1988, '89,
有意识地废除苏联的共♥产♥主义制度
was consciously dismantling the Soviet communist system.
他当然不希望解体的是苏联
What he certainly did not wish to dismantle was the Soviet Union.
拥有15个加盟共和国的多民族国家
This multi-ethnic state with 15 union republics.
在那之前他们一直在利用体制重构带来的新自♥由♥
Up until that point, they'd been using the new freedoms of perestroika
在苏联的范围内
to argue for a greater autonomy within the Republic
争取共和国更大的自治权
within the confines of the Soviet Union.
"体制重构"是改革的一种委婉说法
Perestroika was a kind of euphemism for reform.
但1989年之后人们的期望提高了
But after 1989, expectations were raised.
1989年11月柏林墙倒塌时
Not a single shot was fired by a Soviet soldier
苏联士兵没有开一枪
when the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.
所以对苏联最不满的共和国的人们
So, people in the most disaffected republics of the Soviet Union,
爱沙尼亚拉脱维亚立陶宛
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
当他们看到捷克人波兰人和匈牙利人可以免受惩罚时
when they saw Czechs, Poles, and Hungarians getting away with it,
他们想："为什么他们不可以? "
they thought, "Why not they?"
波罗的海三国的人手拉起手
A human chain stretched across three Baltic states
（波罗的海三国抗♥议♥ 1989年8月23日）
向莫斯科传递出一个信息争取独♥立♥的运动已成为一场群众运动
was a clear message for Moscow, that the drive for independence had become a popular mass movement.
（波罗的海要自♥由♥）
在一战和二战期间波罗的海三国一度是自♥由♥国家
Free countries briefly between World Wars One and Two,
1939年根据希♥特♥勒♥和斯大林的秘密条约
the three Baltic States were annexed by the Soviet Union in 1939,
（希♥特♥勒♥斯大林条约 1939年8月23日）
三个国家被苏联吞并
by a secret Hitler-Stalin treaty.
（废除1939年苏联与纳粹条约造成的后果! ）
美国从未在法律上承认波罗的海三国
The United States never legally recognized that these three Baltic countries,
爱沙尼亚拉脱维亚立陶宛
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania,
是属于苏联的
were in the Soviet Union.
尽管被莫斯科当局控制了50年
Despite 50 years of control by Moscow,
波罗的海国家仍然保持着独♥立♥的非俄♥罗♥斯♥身份
the Baltic States maintain separate non-Russian identities.
（爱沙尼亚从未加入苏联! ）
当地的共♥产♥党开始脱离莫斯科政♥府♥
The communist parties, locally, began to break away from Moscow
并要求自治
and also ask for autonomy.
所以原本用来控制他们的共♥产♥党
So the very communist parties that had been put in place to control them,
开始失去控制
uh, begin to lose control.
戈尔巴乔夫无法接受
Gorbachev couldn't accept it.
当时很多人认为如果他不镇♥压♥波罗的海三国
Many people at the time thought he was going to be removed
他就会被赶下台
if he didn't suppress the Baltics.
戈尔巴乔夫今日乘飞机来到反抗的共和国面对最大的挑战
Mr. Gorbachev flew into his rebel republic and his biggest challenge today,
他受到了立陶宛共♥产♥党人的欢迎
to be greeted by the Lithuanian communists,
立陶宛共♥产♥党人与莫斯科的分道扬镳威胁到了他的权威
whose split with Moscow threatens his authority
以及苏联的统一
and the unity of the Soviet Union.
"我们不需要更多的权利我们需要完全的独♥立♥"
"We don't need more rights, we need full independence."
从谁那里独♥立♥呢?
From whom?
是谁指使你这么做的? -我自己写的
Who instructed you to do this? - I wrote it myself.
你自己写的? -对
You personally? - Yes.
你对独♥立♥有什么看法?
What's your vision of your independence?
生是独♥立♥的立陶宛人
To die in the same kind of independent Lithuania
死也是独♥立♥的立陶宛人
as the one in which I was born.
我记得戈尔巴乔夫对我说
I remember Gorbachev told me,
"你为什么这么渴望完全独♥立♥? "
"Why you are so eager, so full independence?"
这是无稽之谈
"It is nonsense."
没有人能独♥立♥
"Nobody can be independent."
"但你们会得到更多
"But you will be given more."
（维陶塔斯·兰兹伯格斯立陶宛改革运动联合发起人）
得到你们的大部分收成"
"Greater part of your harvest."
如果你们马上获得完全的自主♥权♥ 并开始以市场价格进行交易
If you get full autonomy now and start trading at market prices,
肯定会立刻一败涂地的!
you'll fall flat on your faces immediately!
为什么是一部分收成呢?
Why part of harvest?
我们所有的收成都是我们自己的
All our harvest is ours.
我们需要体制重构来解决所有这些问题
We need perestroika to solve all these issues.
体制重构已经暴露出这些问题了
Perestroika has laid them bare.
你们以前有没有提出过这些问题?
Could you have raised these questions anytime in the past?
从来没有
No, never.
甚至都不敢开口大家都知道会有什么下场
What's more, if you did dare ask anything, you knew what would become of you.
现在你们想要脱离联盟
Now you want to run away from the Union.
要脱离到哪里去呢? 为什么要脱离?
Where would you run to? Why would you run?
那是你们应该考虑的所以考虑一下吧
That's what you should think about, so do give it some thought.
祝一切顺利
All the best.
自♥由♥!
Freedom! Freedom! Freedom!
（大教堂广场集♥会♥ 立陶宛维尔纽斯 1990年1月）
到下午三点左右已有三分之一的人聚集在一起高呼自♥由♥
By mid-afternoon, a third of a million people had gathered to chant for freedom.
戈尔巴乔夫先生没有说服他们
Mr. Gorbachev hasn't convinced them.
我们立陶宛改革运动的目标是
Our goal in Sąjūdis was,
我们要实现全面解放
we are going to full liberation,
包括政♥治♥解放包括立陶宛的国家地位
including political one, including the statehood of Lithuania.
我们要求自♥由♥和独♥立♥
We demand freedom and independence.
（维陶塔斯·兰兹伯格斯）
我们身处立陶宛的中心我们不会退缩到任何地方
We are here, in the heart of Lithuania, and we will not retreat anywhere.
自♥由♥归于立陶宛!
Lithuania will be free! Lithuania will be free!
立陶宛是苏联的首例
Lithuania was the first one in the Soviet Union.
1984年3月11日...
On March 11th, 1991,
（阿吉尔达斯·考斯佩达斯）
（立陶宛国家电视台台长 1990-1992）
他们宣布恢复立陶宛的独♥立♥
they declared the restoration of the independent state of Lithuania.
（立陶宛议会宣布独♥立♥ 1990年3月11日）
从今往后
And from henceforth,
立陶宛再次成为一个独♥立♥的国家
Lithuania is once again an independent state.
我向最高委员会致敬我向立陶宛致敬
I salute the Supreme Council. I salute Lithuania.
当立陶宛国旗升起
As the Lithuanian flag was raised
他们唱起曾经被共♥产♥党♥禁♥止的国歌♥时
and they sang the national anthem once banned by the communists,
立陶宛宣布已经恢复国家地位
Lithuania proclaimed that it had returned to the status it enjoyed
恢复到1940年苏联红军入侵前的情况
up until the Soviet Red Army invaded in 1940.
苏联法律宣布议会将不再适用于立陶宛
Soviet laws declared the parliament would no longer apply in Lithuania,
"社♥会♥主♥义♥"和"苏维埃"两词将从官方头衔中删除
and the words "socialist" and "Soviet" would be dropped from the official title.
戈尔巴乔夫一直愿意看到共♥产♥主义在波兰和捷克斯洛伐克终结
Gorbachev had been willing to see the end of communism in Poland and Czechoslovakia.
他甚至容忍♥了德国共♥产♥主义的终结
He'd even tolerated the end of communism in Germany.
我想这对我们来说是一个惊喜