与摩根·弗里曼一起穿越虫洞（2010）

Through The Wormhole With Morgan Freeman S04E09

Part 4 April 19, 2021, 2:54 p.m.

当存在着这三种或四种变量
And with those three or four variables,
人群就会马上停止随机运动
all of a sudden that swarm of people ceases to become random
并变得可以预测了
and starts to become predictable.
肖恩观察的方式
The way Sean sees it,
通过简单的社会规则构建了全球模式
simple social rules give rise to global patterns.
如果你能理解这些模式
If you can understand the patterns,
看起来混沌的事件也变得可预测了
seemingly chaotic events become predictable,
你可以找出一些方法改变这些模式
and you can find ways to change the patterns.
历史上战争一直困扰着人类
Wars have plagued humanity for the whole of human history,
但如果我们能够预见战争呢？
but what if we could see them coming?
如果我们能够预测出战争的导火线
What if we could predict a flash point
并采取措施阻止其发生呢？
and take steps to stop it from happening?
肖恩和他在数据分♥析♥公♥司♥的同事
Sean and his colleagues at the data analytics company quid
搜集了全球范围的
collect all available information
各种冲突的可用信息
about conflicts around the globe,
接着他们从
then they look for patterns
看起来是混沌的事件中寻找模式
that emerge from the seeming chaos.
他们在防御共同体于伊♥拉♥克♥
They gained a reputation in the defense community
追踪暴♥乱♥的行动中获得了声誉
tracking the growth of the insurgency in Iraq.
那么你要得到上万个
So, you've got the collective actions
不同个体的集体行为
of literally tens of thousands of different individuals
同样也需要美国这边的数据
and, also, on the U.S. side, as well,
然后使用这些数据创造
coming together to create a statistical signature
他们都意识不到的统计学特征
that none of them are aware of.
肖恩发现了一个攻击次数与规模的
Sean has found a strict mathematical relationship
严格的数学关系
between the number of attacks and their size.
这真是一条非常非常干净的直线
It's a very, very clean, straight line.
在所有可能会发生的不同事件中，规律就是这样的
Out of all the different things that it could be, it chose this.
而这种相同的暴♥力♥模式
And the same patterns of violence
在全球各地的武装冲突中都有表现
show up in armed conflicts around the world,
从伊♥拉♥克♥到哥伦比亚、阿富汗以及印度尼西亚
from Iraq to Colombia to Afghanistan to Indonesia.
我们可以非常准确的预测
We can actually start to
一场冲突中
very accurately predict the likely size of an attack
特定时期的攻击规模
for any given time period within the conflict.
就好像是有人把这些事件按点排列在这里
It's almost as if somebody came and placed every dot,
但是当然，并没有人安排这些事件点
but, of course, no one's placing every dot.
这只是那里的人们
This is people that are out there
正在互相残杀
to try and kill each other.
但一旦你发现了这样的模式
But once you see this pattern, when you know
知道了未来会如何发展，你能改变它吗？
what the future will bring, can you change it?
如果我们想要一个不同的未来
If we want a different kind of future,
我们想要操控这些冲突
we want to engineer the conflict
得到不同的结局
to end up in a different direction,
我们作为人类就需要作出许多决定
we, as humans, need to make decisions.
我们需要以不同群组为目标
We need to target different groups.
我们需要思考
We need to think,
攻击较大群组或是较小的群组是否正常？
is it normal to attack big groups or small groups?
我应该对顶层的采取措施
Should I take things out of the top level
还是应该对底层的采取措施？
or should I take things out of the bottom level?
我们已经发现了表现“世界是如何”的模式
We've found patterns that show how the world is.
而我们真正想得到的模式
What we really want to get to is patterns that show
是基于我们做出的决定而表现“世界是如何”的模式
how the world will be, based on the decisions we make.
我们有的数据越多
The more data we have,
就能越好的控制我们的命运
the better we can control our fate.
但我们能否获得足够的数据呢？
But will we ever have enough data?
在整个人类历史中
Over the course of human history,
一代又一代的王朝发现
empire after empire has discovered
改变世界事务的发展方向并不容易
that altering the course of world affairs is not easy.
或许正如古希腊人怀疑的那样
It may be that, as the ancient greeks suspected,
我们可以改变自己生活中的小事
we can change small things about our lives,
但却无法改变不可避免的命运安排
but ultimately we are all in the grip of an unavoidable fate.
我认为当你具有自♥由♥意志时
I think when you've got free will,
就不再是“或者如何”了
it's not an either/or.
而是“是的，但是”，而你获得的自♥由♥意志
It's a "yes, but," and you have free will,
就像我在跑道上具有的自♥由♥意志
like I had free will at the running track
把跨栏调高或调低
to move the hurdles up or down.
我可以选择我想跃过的跨栏
I can choose what hurdle I want to go over,
但我无法选择消除重力
but I can't choose to turn off gravity.
同样当我在一场战争中，比如伊♥拉♥克♥战争
And when I go into a war, I can choose, on some level,
某些程度上我可以选择自己在战争中的行为
my actions within, you know, Iraq,
但我无法改变
but I can't change the mathematical signature
我阵亡的可能性
that underlies the way I'm likely to die.
我认为对于我们人类
And I think that's a really difficult thing
努力去理解某事的确是很困难的
for us, as humans, to wrap our heads around,
因为一方面，我们能够进行选择
because on the one hand I can choose
另一方面却又别无选择
and on the other hand I have no choice.
无论我们内心多么狂野
No matter how wild we might be at heart,
个体行为很难改变
individual actions can rarely change
人类历史的发展方向
the course of human history.
自♥由♥意志的力量依赖于
The power of free will depends on
你所研究的社会或个人的
what layer of existence you examine --
存在的层面
society or the individual.
自然界也有很多层面
There are layers in the natural world, too.
星系、恒星和行星
The motions of galaxies, stars, and planets
都遵循严格的因果法则运动
follow strict laws of cause and effect,
并没有自♥由♥意志的落脚之处
with no room for free will.
而到了亚原子层面
But down at the subatomic layer of existence,
宇宙是否也有着颗狂野的内心？
is the universe also wild at heart?
艾萨克牛顿把宇宙看做是一台巨型时钟
Isaac Newton saw the universe as a giant clock,
美丽复杂但又完全无法预测
beautifully intricate but utterly predictable.
但如果有足够的信息
With enough information, you could know
你就能知道直到时间尽头的所有事情
everything that will happen until the end of time.
20世纪
In the 20th century,
随着我们深入到亚原子世界
as we dug down into the subatomic world,
牛顿对宇宙的预测不再成立
the predictability of Newton's universe fell apart.
在量子世界中
In the quantum world,
在你观察之前，一切都是不确定的
nothing is determined until you look at it.
但是否如果存在一个更深的层次
But what if there's an even deeper layer
远比量子世界还要小
on a scale far smaller than the quantum world,
这个层面正如牛顿对宇宙的想法一样可以预测
a layer just as predictable as the universe Newton imagined
只不过遵循着我们尚不了解的规律？
but following laws we don't yet understand?
荷兰物理学家赫拉德·胡夫特认为这可能是真的
Dutch physicist Gerard 't hooft suspects it might be true.
赫拉德获得了诺贝尔奖
Gerard won the nobel prize for his part in developing
奖励其发展了物理粒子标准模型的工作
the standard model of particle physics,
这个模型是我们对于量子宇宙最好的描述
our best description of the quantum universe.
如果说物理是国际象棋
If physics is like a game of chess,
赫拉德就是象棋大♥师♥
Gerard is a grand master.
但如果不懂象棋规则
But if you don't know the game,
棋子就像是以完全不可预测的方式运动
chess pieces seem to move in completely unpredictable ways,
这也适用于量子物体
and the same can be said of quantum objects.
量子物理学家认为
Quantum physics suggests it's impossible to ever know
同时确定一个粒子确切位置
the precise location of a particle
与其运动方式是不可能的
and the movement of a particle at the same time.
这称为量子不确定性
This effect is called quantum uncertainty.
常理说一个粒子可以在这里、这里、或这里，但不会在它们中间
A particle can be here or there or there but not in between,
或是一个粒子在这里或不在这里
or a particle is here or it isn't here.
这还好理解，但量子力学存在另一方面
That's fine, but there is another aspect
这点非常奇怪
to quantum mechanics which is very strange,
那就是我们称为的干涉
and that is that you can have what you call interference.
这样，粒子就可以在这个位置
So, particles can be in a position like this
或是在这个位置
or in a position like this or here,
接着我们还会说粒子会
and then they also say the particle can be
同时存在于棋盘上所有的位置
in all these positions at the same time.
它位于不确定的位置上
It is in an undecided position.
就像你听到的这么奇怪
As strange as this sounds,
量子不确定性一次又一次的
quantum uncertainty has been tested
被检验和证明
and proven again and again.
量子力学是一个精湛的理论
Quantum mechanics is a superb theory,
但对于我的口味来说还不够好
but it's not good enough to my taste,
这也是因为它在某种程度上与通常逻辑相悖
and that's because it somehow defies ordinary logic.