数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S01E11

Part 3 Jan. 31, 2024, 8:04 p.m.

and look at his computer, all right?
好吧
All right
我正在整理资料提交一份报告
well, I'm actually on my way to give a lecture right now,
当然，要一点时间
but sure, afterwards,
如果我能帮上什么忙的话
Any way I can help.
好的，就这样，谢谢了Charlie.
All right, good, thanks, Charlie.
我听见你们在谈论的是"sabermetrics"吗？
Now, did I just hear you say the word "sabermetrics"?
你知道？
Familiar with it?
所谓狂热的卷钱？
The Money Ball craze?
当然，我对那玩意很熟悉
Oh, yes, I'm familiar with it.
你不干我♥干♥ -恩
I take it you don't approve.- Well
这个想法是通过运用数字统计程序
the notion that human achievement on a baseball diamond
能提前分♥析♥出棒球运动员的下一个动作
can be predicted through the application of statistical analysis
这个想法真大胆
is, at it's very core
但是有很多的问题
highly problematic.
尽管这项技术能被数字化的控制？
Even if the skill can be statistically measured?
当然，因为Charles,
Yes, because, Charles,
人类的行为是不可预料的
the human spirit is immeasurable.
你知道我们的大脑不是机器
You know, our brains aren't just these machines.
那有很多中或、或关系在里边
There's a lot of either/or going on here.
数字可能性是一个不错的工具
Yes, statistical probability is a wonderful tool,
但不能把它应用到人类行为上
but applied to human performance,
它只是根据过去的行为进行推断
it's only an extrapolation of the past.
但是仍然有很多的棒球队
Still there are a number of baseball teams
想购买♥♥这项技术
that use sabermetrics to determine who to pay.
作为一个躲避球的球迷
As a Dodger fan,
我很不情愿的清楚这个事实
I'm all too painfully aware of that fact,
但是我也知道，在数字分♥析♥中
but I'm also aware that in a statistical model,
红袜队就从来没击败过洋基队
the Red Sox never beat the Yankees.
恩，当然凡事都有例外
Ah, there are exceptions to every rule.
是啊，但是他们不也是很了不起吗？
Yes, and aren't they glorious?
Don为什么现在还问你
Now, why is Don even asking you about
棒球数字分♥析♥的事情？
statistical baseball analysis?
甚至一个研究员都被谋杀了
A researcher was found murdered.
等一下，我们在讨论Jonas Hoke吗?
Wait, are we talking about Jonas Hoke?
你认识他？
You knew him?
他...是的
He... yeah.
我们一起念的博士生
We were doctoral students together.
不是在一起，但是是同一时间上的
Well, not together, but at the same time.
他有点...我不知道
He just -- I don't know.
有句古话说：
There's that old saying:
"应用物理学家是从金星来的 "Applied physicists are from Venus,
Applied physicists are from Venus,
"理论物理学家... "
theoretical physicists...
总是好奇事务为什么朝着不同的方向运行" - 你说的对
wonder why it rotates in the opposite direction." -There you go.
我们部已经通知了他的死讯
No, our department was informed of his passing
并且正在准备纪念仪式
and the planned memorial service.
对不起
I'm sorry.
Charles,你知道书本不是永远好用的
Well, the book doesn't always work, Charles,
数字不能说明生活显示给我们的
and numbers can't always account for the way life turns out.
恩，我就是来问问Jonas Hoke.
Well, I mean, just ask Jonas Hoke.
David，你说什么？
What do you say, David?
他有什么东西在
Lorman Group吗? Hey. Anything at The Lorman Group?
Hoke都2天没有来了
Well, Hoke didn't show up for work for two days,
他也不是失踪了
and he wasn't missed.
这真实个坏消息，但是他干得不错
That's either very sad, or that's a really good job.
是吗？对我来说有点古怪
Yeah? Seemed odd to me.
恩，猜猜谁有2百万美金的保险？
Well, guess who had a $2 million insurance policy.
什么？是Dr.Hoke?
What? The good Dr. Hoke?
恩
Mm-hmm.
猜猜谁是保险受益人？
And guess who the beneficiary is?
不是他老婆？
Not the wife.
答对
Yep.
看来离婚的事比咱们想的都糟
Turns out the divorce was nastier than we thought.
这是Hoke的潜在收入
Major issue being Hoke's potential earnings.
显然，他不想给她一分钱
Apparently, he didn't want to give her any.
所以她把Hoke赶出家门然后得到属于她名头的钱
So she takes him out and gets the money she's entitled to?
然后她就自♥由♥了
Then she's free and single again.
hoke本人就是她案发当晚不在现场的证据
He's her alibi the night of the murder.
84年被逮捕过
Arrested in '84.
袭击和殴打
Assault and battery.
我猜她觉得Hoke死去比活者更划算
I guess she figured Hoke was worth more dead than alive.
我都20岁了
I was twenty years old.
我在酒吧和一个人打了一架
I got in a fight with a guy at a bar.
2年缓期执行，相信我
Two years probation, believe me,
我已经受到惩罚了
I learned my lesson.
那是－
Which was what -
没人看见吗？
don't leave any witnesses behind the next time?
你们的想象力真好
You have some imagination.
是啊
We do.
你怎么想象的这事
How about you imagining this --
Gail Hoke处在一个非常糟糕的离婚事件中，是吧？
Gail Hoke's in the middle of a bad divorce, right?
我的意思是，确实没看出任何好转的迹象
I mean, it really isn't going well.
换句话说
On the other hand,
一个去世的丈夫留下了二百万的保险金
a dead husband pays out on a $2 million insurance policy.
想想吧你需要工作多少时间才能弄到这笔钱啊
Wonder how many of these you'd have to work to make up that.
杀死Jona就能帮助我了？
And, killing Jonas helps me how?
仅仅因为Gail会给我一些保险分成吗？
Because maybe Gail will give me some of her insurance settlement?
恩，他要是一让路
Well, with him out of the way,
她就能重新结婚了
she's free to marry again.
Gail和我彼此相爱
Gail and I like each other.
可能不止这点
Maybe it's even more than that,
我们两人从来也没有谈论过结婚的事
but neither one of us has ever talked about marriage.
好吧
All right.
我们保持联♥系♥
We'll be in touch.
Gail Hoke还没有完全的忘掉前任丈夫
Gail Hoke wasn't over her ex-husband.
我从他们那了解到很多
I got that much from both of them.
那也不能说明她没杀她的丈夫
Well, doesn't mean she didn't kill him.
是啊，但是我有个感觉
Yeah, but I got the feeling
她不愿意承认婚姻已经结束
she wasn't willing to admit the marriage was over.
她正考虑重新回到他的身边
She was thinking about going back to him.
你怎么感觉到的？
How'd you get that?
Linda的生活和她的挺像，这提醒了我
Kind of reminded me of my sister Linda
当她离婚后
when she got divorced.
搬出家门，回到自己的住处
Moved out, got her own place,
坐在那等着前夫的电♥话♥
sat around waiting for her ex to call
却不是晚上出去玩过着自己的生活
instead of getting out and getting on with her life.
前夫打电♥话♥了吗？
Did he call?
是啊，然后她又回到丈夫的身边
Yeah, and she went back to him.
我觉得她其实应该做的更好
I always thought she could've done better,
你知道，给自己一个机会
you know,just given herself a chance.
谢谢
Thanks.
啊？-恩.
Yeah? -Yeah
傻瓜，你知道
Knucklehead, you know.
你好，我很抱歉
Hello. I'm sorry.
我先简单的介绍一下情况
I have pretty specific instructions.
没人能用这台计算机
No one's supposed to use this computer.
我很抱歉
Oh, I'm sorry.
你一定是Scott.
You must be Scott.
是啊 -我是
Charlie Eppes. Yeah. - I'm Professor Charlie Eppes.
恩，我是
Oh, I'm the, um, yeah
我是一个FBI专家 -恩，那不错
I'm the... FBI consultant. - Oh, all right.
Mr.Oliver说你会来
Yeah, Mr. Oliver said you were coming.
我被告知，恩
I was told that, uh
在我来之前，谁也不能碰Dr.Hoke的东西
none of Dr. Hoke's work was to be touched before I got here.
这都是我的
No, all that stuff's mine.
但是你就要走了
Oh, you're leaving.
是的，但
Yeah. Well,
他们应该在这给我提供另一个工作
they probably would have offered me another position here,
Dr.Hoke是一个
but Dr. Hoke was kind of,
对我来说是良师益友
kind of a mentor to me,
你和别人工作的时候这么接近，确实很难