数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S01E09

Part 5 Jan. 31, 2024, 8:04 p.m.

因为我不懂得怎样射击 - 正是这样
because I don't know what it is to shoot a gun. - Exactly,
所以我才带他过来
which is why I brought him in to begin with.
你不明白吗伙计?
Don't you see, man?
我把事实抽象为表达式
I'm reducing these acts to abstract expressions,
但我并不知道我在做什么
but I don't really know what I'm dealing with.
我完全不理解有关枪和暴♥力♥
I don't really understand anything about guns and violence,
不像你那样理解
not the way you do.
Edgerton你的工作就是像射手那样思考
Edgerton said it was your job to get in the mind of a shooter.
按么也许我的工作就是理解他的力学
Well, maybe it's my job to understand his mechanics.
好吧好吧
All right, look,
但你得帮我个忙
but you got to do me a favor
不要告诉爸爸好吗?
and not say a word to Dad, okay?
我意思是他已经开始认为我把你往火坑里推
I mean, the guy already thinks I'm going to wind up getting you killed.
噢西班牙开局
Oh. The Ruy Lopez opening.
看来我同一个古典主义者在一起
I see I'm dealing with a classicist here.
看我可警告你我反应有点慢
Look, I warned you I was a little rusty.
我玩游戏不开窍
My game is also a little undeveloped.
你知道当Charlie 8岁时我就不再同他玩了
You know,I had to stop playing with Charlie when he was eight years old.
是的 Charles Eppes教授是少年成材
Yeah, more precociousness in the biography of Professor Charles Eppes.
是的你知道
Yeah, you know,
在数学家当中
among mathematicians,
这不是什么新鲜事儿
isn't that just such a cliche,
下象棋? - 我并不在乎输棋
the playing chess? - I didn't mind losing.
是他脸上那种厌倦的表情
It was that bored expression on his face,
好像他只是出于礼貌才玩的
like he was playing out of courtesy.
这让我很难受
That's what got to me.
噢是吗? 那就试试Scrabble（一种拼字游戏）
Oh, yeah? Well, try Scrabble.
他拼得很烂
He's a horrible speller.
真的? - 是的非常烂
Really? - Oh, he's horrible.
我都不知道
I didn't know that.
你很了解我儿子
You know quite a bit about my son.
我不知道
I don't know.
我知道他很快乐
I know he's been a delight.
你知道留心他这么多年
You know, observing him all these years.
你知道从一个明星学生到取得如此非凡的成就...
You know, a star pupil's ascension to such extraordinary heights...
我是说也许这就是...
I mean, yeah, that's perhaps the most...
作为一个老师最大的收获了
rewarding aspect of being a teacher.
别这样我们都知道您对Charlie来说绝不仅仅是老师
Come on, we both know you've been a lot more than just a teacher to Charlie.
噢你能那么说真是太好了
Well, thank you for saying that.
顺便告诉你嗯...
By the way, uh...
将军
you're now in check.
噢你分散我注意力
Oh, you distracted me.
你退缩了
You're flinching.
你闭上了眼睛
You're closing your eyes,
你在预期很响的一声
anticipating a loud noise.
声音确实很大
It's a loud noise.
这只是对行为的自然的生理反应
It's a perfectly natural physiological response to what I'm doing.
Charlie 如果这能帮你击中靶子
Charlie, that's not gonna help you hit the target.
看你射也射了
Look, you fired the rifle.
我们出去怎么样? 走吧
How about we get out of here? Come on.
不我需要学会
No. I need to learn this.
来吧
Come on.
好吧好吧
All right, all right.
我们来试一种叫做"空肺"的技术
We'll try what's called an empty-lung technique.
呼吸自然瞄准但不开枪
You breathe naturally, you aim,but you don't fire.
好吗? 现在准备瞄准
Okay? So line it up, aim.
呼气
You're gonna exhale,
数到3然后吸气
and count to three before you inhale.
数到2时扣下扳机
On two, you squeeze the trigger.
明白吗? 按我说的做
Right? Just like I told you.
放松
Just tease it.
非常好
That's pretty good.
看一看 - 是的
Look at that. - Yeah.
噢肾上腺的反应
Ah. Adrenal response.
这只是纸靶子
It's a paper target.
真人是不同的
It's a little different with a real person.
也许对0号♥射手来说没什么不同
Well, maybe not for Sniper Zero.
射得很不错不是吗?
That's a pretty good shot,though, isn't it?
不赖
Not bad.
我想你可能有一点初学者的好运气
I think you had a little beginner's luck there.
初学者的运气就是没有经验
Beginner's luck is non-empiric.
是反直觉
It's counter-intuitive.
是吗? 我第一次打高尔夫球
Yeah? First time I played golf,
在前9洞中我击杆是4次因此...
I parred four on the front nine, so...
只不过是一次向均数的回归罢了
That's just a function of the "regression to the mean."
根据你的观点我们的射手或射手们
According to you,our sniper or snipers
没有表现出非常杰出的技术
have shown no exceptional amount of skill.
有一次射击显得技术精湛
There was one shooting that showed proficiency.
那个流浪者
The homeless guy.
是的但他是被两个兄弟会的男孩杀的
Yeah, but he was killed by the two frat boys.
两个人合作是很大的优势
Working together gave them a clear advantage.
是的这就能解释个别案件的技术水平的提高
Yeah, so that explains the increased skill level in that one case.
但是...
Yet...
但是有五次射击都是一枪毙命
Yet five of the shootings have resulted in a fatal wound from one single shot.
这该怎么解释?
How do you explain that?
水平还行但运气很好
A little ability, a lot of luck.
你知道吗?
You know what?
你说得真是太对了
You're actually exactly right.
我告诉Don
I told Don.
这叫做 "向均数回归" - 好的
It's called "regression to the mean." - All right.
我是一个优秀的篮球运动员
I am an exceptional basketball player,
只是举个例子
but let's say for the sake of this argument
实际上我我不是
that I'm, that I'm not.
是的我想如果说我会更好些 Charlie
Yeah. I think I could argue that side a little better, Charlie.
假设我投中的几率是一半
Let's say I can only hit half of my shots.
我是...
I am...
3中1
One for three.
哇呜
Ooh.
好的我是6中4
Okay, I'm four for six.
好吗? 三次中投中的可能性是平均0.333到0.666
Right? I've went from a .333 average to a .666 average in three shots.
现在假设我一整天都在持续投篮
Now, if I just kept shooting baskets all day long,
最终击中与失误会各占0.5
eventually my hits and misses will average out to about .500.
是的短时间内有好有坏
Right, we have hot and cold streaks,
但最终会找到你的基线 - 对
but over time you're gonna find your level. - That's right.
现在将这些射击做成图
Now, if I plotted my shots on a graph,
做一个垂直的坐标图
it would be a vertical graph.
再把射击加上
I plotted the shootings again,
这次将每次射击赋值
this time assigning scores to each shooting,
根据射击的难度及结果
based on the difficulty of each shot and its result.
在图上的位置越高
The higher up on the graph,
射手的技术水平越高
the greater the proficiency of the shooter.
图上有四次射击高于其他的
Four of the shootings rise above the others on the graph.
有四次射击是同一个人干的
Four people shot by the same man.
因此我们只要找到这四次的共同特征我们就找到了0号♥射手
So we just have to find the common denominator of all four and we find Sniper Zero.
这样就制止了流行
And we break the epidemic.
也许你们去同一家干洗店
Maybe you go to the same dry cleaners,
或是同一个修理工
use the same mechanic.
不
No.
哪个都不熟悉 - 是吗?
None of them look familiar. - No?
新闻里说这是随机的
The news said this was just a random thing.
可能是那样
That may very well be.
但我们不能放过任何可能性
We're just not leaving any possibility unexplored.
Steve今天坚持同我一起来
Steve insisted on coming with me today.
我想他根本不敢让我离开他的视线
I think he's afraid to let me out of his sight.
发生在我们身上的事
As bad as it's been for us,
同其他罹失亲人的家庭一样令人痛苦
what it must be like for the families that lost someone.
是的
Yeah.
谢谢你能来
Thanks for coming down.
嗨 - 嗨
Hey. - Hey.
这四起射击都发生在商业区的前面
All four shootings happened in front of commercial locations,