数字追凶（2005）

Numb3rs S01E03

Part 2 Jan. 31, 2024, 8:04 p.m.

is to find out what we're dealing with.
而我们FBI的工作是
The FBI's is who.
搞清楚是哪里发生的
And the key to both is where.
知道了吗？是哪里开始发生的
Right? Where it started.
最终病毒的传播
Tracking an infectious disease
是一个复杂而又结果多变的问题
is a complicated multi-variable problem.
想象一下...
Imagine...
一个带病者到一个房♥间里面
an infected person goes into an empty room.
接着又有4个人进去
Four healthy people go into the same room.
其中两个人被感染
Only two become infected.
然后所有的人又到了其他地方
Then all five go into other rooms,
每个地方又来了4个健康的人
each joined by four more unexposed people.
更多地被感染重复下去
More get sick, and so on.
当继续到100次的时候...
By the time you've got 100 rooms...
...要想追踪到最起初的那个人那是非常困难的
...it's tough to track back to that one woman.
这是一个很复杂的统计分♥析♥与图论的问题
It takes complex statistical analysis and graph theory.
并不是每一个出现的人都被感染
Not everyone that gets exposed gets sick.
是这样的但是我们不知道原因
Exactly. But we don't know why.
那么目前为止了解些什么情况?
And what do you know so far?
现在发现了几个要点
We have several hot spots
来自两个或多个感染者
associated with two or more victims.
市区已经有了5个感染者
Downtown is common to five victims.
很可能成为突破口
Could be a possible trend.
目前来说还不能肯定结果
That's too soon to know. These are the results
这里是一些
of a quick analysis of the victims' activities
根据感染者的口述而分♥析♥出的报告
based on victim interviews.
所以现在并没有一些有实际意义的发现
So, there's no significant commonalities,
我希望有更多的人感染
but I hope that as more people get sick,
这样我们就能找到一些... 我并不是希望有更多的人得病
we'll find some... not that I hope more people get sick.
我明白你的意思 Charlie
We know, Charlie.
你说的意思是你需要更多的样本数据
So, it sounds to me like what you're saying is, you need more data.
是这样的谢谢
Exactly. Thank you.
无论在寻找起源还是在跟踪传播上
Both to find the origin point, and to track the spread.
在那几天 Josh是否
In the days leading up, did Josh go
去了一些特别的地方?
anywhere out of the ordinary?
没有
No.
我的丈夫
My husband,
在Josh得病那天
came home late
回来得比较晚
the night before Josh... got sick.
比较晚...因为工作吗?
Late... late from work?
那几天他在圣地亚哥
He's been in San Diego the last few days.
那几天你的妻子
Did your wife go anywhere out of the ordinary
去了一些特别的地方吗？
over the last few days?
那是一个很平常的星期
It's been a normal week.
她去工作我也去工作了
She went to work, I went to work.
他昨天去看了电影
She went to the movies yesterday.
但是我们都去了而我却很好
But we both did, and I'm fine.
市区我们都在市区
Downtown. We both work downtown.
在Van Nuys看的电影
The movie was in Van Nuys.
这些情况有用吗?
Does that help?
你们住在...? - Hancock公园
And you live in...? - Hancock Park.
Glendale
Glendale.
嘿. - 嘿.
Hey. - Hey.
今天没有课? - 没
No classes today? - Nah.
你又在帮Don做事?
Are you working on something for Don?
这是 um...
It's a, um...
为一个在生物部门的朋友...
it's a genetics project for a...
做的一个遗传学方面的课题
for a friend in the bio department, actually.
Ah 他还是她?
Ah. A he or a she?
Huh?
Huh?
你的朋友男的女的?
Your friend. Male or female?
那有什么关系?
Does it matter?
不没有什么关系我仅仅是好奇
No, of course not. I was just curious.
我只是想可能...
I just thought maybe, you know...
爸爸如果什么时候我有了女朋友
Well, listen, Dad, whenever I have a girlfriend,
我一定会让你知道 um...
I will let you know by, um...
就写便条贴在冰箱上面
by putting a note on the refrigerator.
好好这样不错
Good. Well, that's nice.
Uh 你现在去哪里?
Uh, where you going right now?
读书俱乐部
My book club.
嗯哼在哪里呢?
Mm-hmm, and where's that?
Phil的家里 Raymond大道
Phil's house. Raymond Avenue.
你还想知道些什么? - 没了
You keeping track of me? - No.
我也仅仅是好奇
I'm just curious.
现在还没有任何的组织团体机构
No claims of responsibility
声明对这件事情负责
by any groups, domestic or international.
一般来说如果是恐♥怖♥分♥子♥干的
Right, well, if it were
应该会有人来声明负责
terrorism, somebody would be taking credit.
然后他们会提出一些意见和要求...
They would be putting forth a philosophy, an agenda...
除非他们不再热衷于声明负责
Unless they're no longer around to take credit.
因为他们都被感染了说不定死掉了
Because they're infected, maybe dead.
有可能
Maybe.
这些仅仅是猜测但是我们还是要假定有坏人做了这件事情
Just a thought, but we're assuming there's a bad guy.
在这种情况下可能不是一个人做的
I mean, in this type of case, there might not be one.
我们也有可能完全考虑错了方向
It's also possible we're just looking for the wrong kind of bad guy.
直到CDC得出结论不然
Well, until the CDC determines otherwise,
我们仍然的假定这件实是人为的
we're going to have to assume somebody did this.
这个地理信息系统
This Geographic Information System
可以清晰地实时的
will allows us to map victims and potential disease clusters
显示出感染者和潜在的感染人群
with real-time data.
它包括了整个洛杉矶地区
They're all over the L.A. area,
从Long Beach到Santa Barbara
from Long Beach to Santa Barbara.
现在在计算繁殖的速率...
Now, in computing the reproductive ratio...
你得到些什么东西了?
Actually, you know what?
我写在那里了
I've written it out.
太好了这很有帮助
Oh, sure, that helps.
耶. - 耶.
Yeah. - Yeah.
这是一个 S.I.R.模型
This is an S.I.R. model.
S.I.R.（易感染研究）
Susceptible Infectious Recovered--
将和G.I.S.（地理信息系统）一起使用--
used in conjunction with the G.I.S.--
可以观察到两件重要的事情
will work to learn two key things.
来源是什么?
What's the source?
是某个人还是某个地方?
Is it a person or a place?
就是CDC所说的发源点
What the CDC calls a Patient Zero.
以及扩散到哪里去了?
And where is it going?
我们能在哪里找到新的患者?
Where are the new patients we need to find?
这看起来就像一棵树
Looks sort of like a plant.
确实是这么回事---像一棵树
That's a great way to think about it-- like a plant.
病毒扩散出去渐渐的增长就是这样的
A virus spreads out. It grows, so to speak.
树杈型的增长是自然界最常见的一种模式
Branching is a common pattern in nature,
从水晶到巨杉都是这样
from crystals to giant redwoods.
现在我们还没有足够的数据来找到起点
Now, we don't have enough data to locate where it started
和完整的预测出传播方向
or to fully predict the spread.
现在我们知道的是大致的方向
Once we do, we'll know the shape of the leaves and branches.
进展得怎么样?
How's it going?
Uh 有更多的感染者资料吗?
Uh, good. Any more data on the victims?
11个新的
11 more.
这很有帮助
This is interesting.
一个在Glendale铁路客运站
A woman who picked up her daughter
接女儿的妇女...
at the Glendale Amtrak station...
一个在Olvera街吃饭的男士 ...
a man who had lunch on Olvera Street...
一个出租车司机.
a cab driver.
出租车司机... Havercamp女士?
A cab driver. Commander Havercamp?
这些材料对我们来说有决定性的作用
This material just pushed us over the tipping point.
看见了吗?
See it?
感染者的分布
The commonality of location.
就像两棵树
It's like two trees
从同一个地方长出来看出来了吗？
growing from the same root, right?
一个向北一个向南
One to the north, and it's one south.
都是从车站开始
Both starting at Union Station.
我们知道有12个感染者或者在那里