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包裹着整个印度次大♥陆♥
over the subcontinent.
这次喷发使上层大气
The eruption loaded the upper atmosphere
充满了硫
with sulfur gases.
火山喷发形成的全球性雾霾
The result was a global haze
阻挡了大部分阳光照射到地面
that blocked most of the sunlight from reaching the surface
这持续了至少五年
for at least five years.
就像一个持续五年之久的阴天一样
It was like one five-year-long cloudy day.
这就是所谓的“火山冬天”
This so-called "Volcanic Winter"
类似“核冬天”一样 但是没有核辐射
resembled a "Nuclear winter," But without the radiation.
全球降温
Temperatures fell everywhere.
生活在热带的动植物都被冻住
Plants and animals froze even in the tropics,
成片成片地死亡
dying in enormous numbers.
但是生命是顽强的
But life is hardy.
只有一小部分的物种灭绝了
Only a few species were driven to extinction.
生活在印度中部的先人
One of our ancestors in central India
早在多巴火山爆发的几年前
sharpened this stone blade
把石头磨成了石刀
in the years before the Toba eruption.
我手上的这一把石刀
And this blade
只是人们在火山灰上层的泥土层中
was one of dozens that were found
发现的好几十把石刀中的一把
in the soil layer above the volcanic fallout.
这说明 制♥作♥这些工具的人们
This tells us that some toolmakers,
即使是生活在直接受火山影响的地区
even in the area directly affected by the volcano,
还是成功得以从这场灾难中幸存下来
managed to survive the cataclysm.
但是当时的全球人口
But the global human population
必定暴跌 然后又回升
must have plummeted before rebounding.
如果像这样的火上爆发明天就发生
If an eruption like this were to happen tomorrow,
即使人类能幸存下来
our civilization would be brought to its knees,
我们的文明可能也会毁于一炬
although the human species would survive.
可以想象 几百年后我们的技术
I can imagine that our technology of a few hundred years from now
也许可以在喷发前
would allow us to siphon off the energy
吸取那些危险超级火山的能量
of a threatening supervolcano before it explodes.
我们还可以把那些能量转为他用
We could then use that energy for our own purposes.
每百万年
About once every million years,
就会有一颗小行星撞向地球
a small asteroid collides with the Earth,
造成类似程度的破坏
causing a similar amount of devastation.
根据我们现有的科学技术
With our current science and technology,
我们已经知道如何防止小行星撞击
we already know how to prevent an asteroid impact.
我们可以提前数年预测到它的到来
We would see it coming years in advance
并发射宇宙飞船
and could send a spacecraft there
将小行星偏移到对地球无害的轨道
to deflect it into a harmless orbit.
一千年后 我们的科技
With the technology of a thousand years from now,
也许能够减轻
we might even be able to mitigate
地球附近超新星爆发
the deadly effects of a nearby supernova
对地球大气造成的致命影响
on Earth's atmosphere.
那么当危险
But what happens
悄无声息地来临的时候呢
when the danger to a civilization is invisible?
我们又该怎么办
When no one can see it coming?
从哥伦布开始
Beginning with Columbus,
侵略美洲的欧洲人
the European invaders of the Americas
携带着连他们自己都不知道的秘密武器
had a secret weapon that even they knew nothing about.
那就是他们带来的
They were carrying bacteria and viruses
美洲原住民从未接触过的
for deadly diseases, such as smallpox,
致命细菌与病毒 如天花
that the original Americans had never been exposed to.
欧洲人更愿相信
The Europeans like to believe
是他们的勇气 先进的武器
that it was their valor and superior weapons
还有优越的文化征服了新大♥陆♥
and culture that won them the New World.
但真正的征服者是
The real conquistadors were
感染并杀死了在北美 中美 南美
the armies of the pathogens that raced on ahead
近九♥成♥印第安人
to infect and kill nine out of ten of all the Indians
传播速度极快的病原体
of North, Central and South America.
新大♥陆♥上的这个伟大文明
The great civilizations of the New World
在入侵微生物的攻击下毁于一旦
crumbled under the onslaught of invading microbes.
如果没有这支看不见的军队
Without his invisible army,
科尔特斯和他的随从们
Cortez and those who followed
也许根本没有机会征服新大♥陆♥
might never have stood a chance.
那么如果文明自我毁灭 又会怎样
But what about civilizations that self-destruct?
我们的经济体系是建立在
Our economic systems were formed
这个星球上的空气 河流 海洋 土地
when the planet and its air, rivers, oceans, lands,
都似乎取之不尽的前提上的
all seemed infinite.
早在人类出现在地球上之前
They evolved long before we first saw the Earth
它们早就开始进化了
as the tiny organism that it actually is.
所有的经济体系都有一个相同点
They're all alike in one respect...
那就是它们都受利益驱动
they're profit-driven,
也因此 它们只关注短期收益
and therefore, focused on short-term gain.
当今现行的经济体系
The prevailing economic systems,
不管它们的意识形态如何
no matter what their ideologies,
都没有内置的机制
have no built-in mechanisms
来保障哪怕100年后的
for protecting our descendants
我们的子孙
of even 100 years from now,
更不用说一万年后了
let alone, 100,000.
从某方面说 我们做得
In one respect, we're ahead of
比古美索不达米亚人更激进
the people of Ancient Mesopotamia.
不同的是 我们知道自己在做什么
Unlike them, we understand what's happening to our world.
例如 我们以过去100万年以来
For example, we're pumping greenhouse gasses
从未有的速度
into our atmosphere at a rate not seen on Earth
排放温室气体
for a million years.
科学界的共识是
And the scientific consensus
人类在使气候变得不稳定
that we're destabilizing our climate.
然而我们的文明似乎对此矢口否认
Yet our civilization seems to be in the grip of denial;
陷入麻木不仁的境地
a kind of paralysis.
人类的所知与所为
There's a disconnect between what we know
总是南辕北辙
and what we do.
能够让我们的行为适应挑战
Being able to adapt our behavior to challenges
是人类智慧的体现
is as good a definition of intelligence as any I know.
如果伟大的智慧是人类这一物种的标志
If our greater intelligence is the hallmark of our species,
我们就应该好好利用
then we should use it,
因为其他的物种都在用它们的独特优势
as all other beings use their distinctive advantages--
来保证自己的子嗣昌盛
to help ensure that their offspring prosper,
让生命得以延续
and their heredity is passed on,
让维系着我们的自然体系受到保护
and that the fabric of nature that sustains us is protected.
当然 人类的智慧是新兴的
Human intelligence is imperfect, surely,
并不完美
and newly arisen.
智慧很容易被甜言所惑 或随波逐流
The ease with which it can be sweet-talked, overwhelmed,
屈服于其他天生的倾向
or subverted by other hard-wired tendencies,
这些倾向有时会扮作一丝理性
sometimes themselves disguised as the light of reason,
其实只是不安
is worrisome.
但如果智慧是我们独特的优势
But if our intelligence is the only edge,
我们就得懂得善用它
we must learn to use it better.
改进它
To sharpen it.
对其局限与不足有自知之明
To understand its limitations and deficiencies.
像猫科动物一样会小心潜伏再骤然出击
To use it as cats use stealth before pouncing.
像竹节虫会披上伪装
As walking sticks use camouflage.
让它成为人类生存的工具
To make it the tool of our survival.
如果我们人类能这样做
If we do this,
接下来的十万年内我们可能面对的所有问题
we can solve almost any problem we are likely to confront
都将迎刃而解
in the next 100,000 years.
现在 我们来到了
And now we've arrived at the place
先人梦想的不朽之地
where our ancient dreams of immortality
和现代天文学的交汇点
and modern astrophysics converge.
巨椭圆星系
Giant elliptical galaxies
就像佛罗里达州
are something like... Florida,
在那里能找到宇宙中最古老的恒星
where the oldest stars in the universe may be found.
这是颗红矮星
This is a red dwarf star,
比太阳更小更昏暗
smaller and fainter than our Sun.
红矮星是宇宙中数量最多的恒星
Red dwarfs are by far the most plentiful stars in the cosmos.
与太阳不同 寿命只有一百亿年
Unlike the Sun, which is halfway through
现在已过了一半
its 10-billion-year lifetime,
红矮星可以为它的行星们
red dwarfs will continue to provide light and warmth
提供光和热超过上万亿年
to their planets for trillions of years.
这比现在宇宙的年龄
That's hundreds of times longer
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