火星世代（2017）

We as a species need to live on multiple planets.
当地球处于平和期 我们就在这个星球上生存
As it sits, we're all on one planet.
也许会有战争 瘟疫
There could be a war. There could be a plague.
人类灭绝的可能性是存在的
It is possible for humanity to be wiped out.
近几十年 气候变化也愈加明显
On a scale of decades, we also have climate change.
如果你有观察这所有的迹象
If you take a look at all the signs,
在温度变化方面所有的指标都在上升
all the signs point up, in terms of temperature.
我们的空间站监测着二氧化碳
Our space assets monitor carbon dioxide,
它们决定着冰川的厚度
they monitor the thickness of glaciers.
我们也看到 人类正在改变气候
And we can see that humankind is changing the climate.
我们并没有过多地投入可替代能源
We're not dumping a lot into alternative energy.
我们砍伐热带雨林 我们正消耗大量的自然栖息地
We're cutting down rainforests, we're using up a lot of natural habitats.
气候变化的诸多问题都已敲响警钟
A lot of problems with climate change are alarming
因为这些变化都是不可逆转的
because we're finding these things are not reversible.
所以 通过探索太空 我们也许能找到另一个栖身之所
So, by exploring space, we can either find somewhere to go,
或者我们还可以依靠科技的发展
or we can develop technologies that will help us repair
来修复我们对地球造成的损害
what damage we've done.
倒数计时 十 九 八 七
T minus ten, nine, eight, seven,
六 五 四
six, five, four,
三 二 一
three, two, one.
目前并不清楚太空发射系统
It's not clear that the Space Launch System
是否仍在计划中 并且在预算范围内
is still on schedule and still on budget,
这是每个人都关心的问题
and this is a concern for everybody.
至少我们能说 太空发射系统是个非常有意思的机器
The SLS, it's an interesting machine, to say the least.
几乎它所有的技术都来自于航♥天♥飞机
Almost all of its technologies are derived from the Space Shuttle.
这是RS25发动机
Its engine's the RS25,
30多年我们在航♥天♥飞机上用着同样的引擎
the same engine that we were running for 30 years on the Space Shuttle.
没有出现新兴技术来升级我们的引擎 对此我有点失望
I'm a little bit disappointed that no new technology really went into making it.
太空发射系统可以将我们带至火星
The SLS can get us to Mars.
太空发射系统肯定能带我们去火星
The SLS most assuredly can get us to Mars.
不论太空发射系统
But the problem with the SLS, the Space Launch System,
21世纪的土星5号♥
the 21st century Saturn 5
和21世纪阿波罗项目猎户座
and Orion, which is the 21st century Apollo program,
它们的问题都在于没有充足的资金支持它们在短期内
is that there simply isn't the money to get them built and tested and flying
完成建造 测试和飞行
in any kind of near term timeframe.
NASA说火星在投资计划中
NASA can say that Mars is in our portfolio.
我们将在2030年派宇航员登陆火星
We're gonna send astronauts there in the 2030s.
但是空头支票好开 钱不好到位
OK, show me the money. Talk is cheap.
有钱了我们才能继续谈论登陆火星
So we can talk about going to Mars,
当我看到装载有宇宙飞船的发射台准备就位时
but until I see the launch pad with the spaceship equipped to accomplish that,
我不会到处张扬说 看吧 我们是火星人了
I'm not gonna run around saying "Yeah, we are the Mars people."
我们不会这么说 直到我们真的实现了它
No we're not. Not until that happens.
继续
Go ahead.
在我的行业内人类登陆月球是我们最大的胜利之一
In my industry one of our biggest victories was putting a man on the Moon.
- 是的 - 那么您如何看待人类将登陆火星呢
-Yeah. -What do you think about humans on Mars?
说实话 我认为那简直太伟大了
Honestly, I think it's wonderful.
但我想我们需要先重建基础设施
I want to rebuild our infrastructure first, OK?
我认为那真的太伟大了
I think it's wonderful.
继续
Go ahead.
NASA的不负责 是源自政♥府♥的心血来潮
NASA's not in charge, it's at the whim of government.
每次总统换届
So every time there's a change in presidents,
NASA内部就会发生许多变化
there's a lot of changes at NASA, automatically.
谢谢大家
Thank you, everybody!
我们不再回答任何问题
We're not, we are not going to be taking any questions.
谢谢你们
Thank you, guys!
我们正在建设太空发射系统
We are building the SLS,
但是以现在的速度 到我四五十岁有才可能建成
but at the rate we're going right now, it won't be done until I'm like 40 or 50.
他们仍然一直在说我们这一代是火星一代
They keep saying my generation is the Mars Generation,
但是并没有与之匹配的效率
but we're not at this rate.
如果我们能获得像阿波罗项目一样的支持 也许能成事
We could be if we gave them the same support we showed the Apollo program.
在阿波罗时代
During the Apollo era, everybody,
NASA的经费占联邦预算的4%
NASA was funded at 4% of the federal budget.
现在是0.4%
Today, it's 0.4%,
几乎仅仅只有阿波罗时代的十分之一
almost exactly a tenth of what it was during the Apollo era.
而且这种情况不会改变 这就是现在的情况
And that's not gonna change. That's the way it is right now.
NASA因为美国的资金预算而束手束脚
NASA is handcuffed to the U.S. budget.
成千上万的人伸手想要弄到美国的资金预算
The U.S. budget has a thousand claws on it trying to get the money.
对于NASA而言 不论是创新亦或是完成伟业
For NASA to innovate, for NASA to do amazing things that it would like to do,
其预算需求都大的可怕
it needs an insane budget.
它所需要的预算与其他政♥府♥机构不可同日而语
It needs a far different budget than the other kind of agencies.
NASA收到的所有
NASA, all of the money they have ever received
政♥府♥资金
from the government combined,
仍然低于国防部的年度预算
is still less than the yearly budget of the D.O.D.
这对我来说简直太可怕了
Which is kind of appalling to me.
太空发射系统和猎户座非常的炫酷
SLS and Orion are cool.
我是说 如果你喜欢火箭的话 它们真的超赞
I mean, if you like rockets, they're gonna be awesome.
它们有巨大的推动力
They're gonna have immense amount of thrust.
但是已让没有革命性的改进
But they haven't done the important innovation,
还是那么不可承受的昂贵
which is that they're still super crazy expensive.
如果每次等飞机落地了乘客们都下机以后
If every time you flew in an airplane, you landed, the passengers got out,
这架飞机就会因为仅使用了一次就被扔掉的话
and the plane was thrown away cause planes flew once,
那么一个经济舱的座位就要花费150万美元
well, it would cost a million and a half dollars for a coach seat.
没有人会愿意起航 这个产业的回报率为零
No one would fly. It would be a zero industry.
只有疯狂的亿万富翁才会这样做
It would be for crazy billionaires only.
这就是我们航♥空♥航♥天♥业的现状
That's the current state of our aerospace industry.
有一个讨厌的四字单词一直困扰着太空计划
There is a nasty four-letter word that has haunted the space program.
以C开头的单词 费用
It's the "C" word. "Cost".
想象你的身体是用纯金打造的
Imagine your body made out of solid gold.
这就是让你进入太空的代价
That's what it costs to put you up in outer space.
这也是我们必须降低成本的原因
That's why we have to drive down the cost.
当涉及到离开地球的问题 我们可以
You can improve incrementally when it comes to getting off of Earth
用成本更低的火箭和更好的燃料来逐步改善
with cheaper rockets and maybe better fuel.
但我们真正需要的 是在太空旅行的经费上
But what was needed was like a giant leap forward
有一个质的飞跃
in the cost of space travel.
的确有一种方法可以实现这一点
And there really was one way to do that.
每一架火箭都只使用过一次
And it was the fact that every rocket was used once.
有一场关于私企或者联邦政♥府♥能否实现创新
There's a debate as to whether private enterprise or the federal government
的争论
can create innovation.
即太空产业私有化
Privatization of space.
至少可以说 这是一个非常有趣的话题
This is a very interesting subject, to say the least.
私人化太空产业 是NASA无法为其各种计划
The private space industry is a direct result
提供资金支持的直接结果
of NASA not being able to fund everything it wants to do.
我不认为这是件坏事 这件事挺好
I don't think it's a bad thing, it's a good thing.
NASA有很大的领导潜力和预算潜力
NASA has a lot of leadership potential and a lot of budget potential.
它可以利用这些与企业合作
And it can use it to partner with these companies.
这总比对抗这些公♥司♥并自己制♥造♥火箭
Rather than fight against these companies and make its own rocket,
和私企争论谁的火箭更好来得好
let the private companies fight for who has the best rocket,
NASA还可以用最好的火箭在太空和火星上招商引资
and then NASA will use that best rocket to do its business in space and in Mars.
欢迎来到太空探索技术公♥司♥在佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角的
Welcome to the live webcast of the SpaceX launch of the ORBCOM mission
发射ORBCOM任务的现场直播
from Launch Complex 40 out of Cape Canaveral, Florida.
太空探索技术公♥司♥的伊隆 马斯克问
Elon Musk of SpaceX
我们需要怎么做才能去火星
he asked, "What is it we need to do to go to Mars?"
某些人 这些专家们告诉他
And people told him, these are experts told him,
我们需要降低进入近地轨道的成本
"We need to lower the cost of getting into low Earth orbit."
埃隆认为地球是一个硬盘驱动器
Elon thinks of Earth as a hard drive,
他认为人类是这个硬盘上非常重要的文件
and he thinks of humanity as a very important file on that hard drive,
伊隆看了大灭绝事件的历史
and Elon looks at the history of mass extinction events
预见了这个硬盘将损毁的趋势
and sees the hard drive has a tendency to crash.
有些人认为永远待在地球上很好
Some people think it's fine, just stay on Earth forever.
有些人不这么认为
And some people don't.
在火星上创造一种自给自足的文明
Creating a self-sustained civilization on Mars
为生命存活提供保障
to provide insurance for life as a whole,
为未来创造一个太空文明之地
a future where we are a space-faring civilization
在群星中显然比不在其中
and out there among the stars
要更能令人兴奋和鼓舞人心
is infinitely more exciting and inspiring than one where we are not.
太空探索技术公♥司♥的目标是建立运输系统
The goal of SpaceX is really to build the transport system.
就像建造联合太平洋铁路一样
It's like building the Union Pacific Railroad.
太空探索技术公♥司♥试图去做的
What SpaceX is trying to do
就是建造首个星际铁路
is to build the first reliable interplanetary railroad.
如果用今天的技术标准
Using today's standard technologies,
要将人类运送到火星并在让他们那里生活 每个人要花费将近1亿美元