骗局（2021）

..那你就像真的犯了罪似的。
Now, it's hard to believe that some emails written on a university
现在，很难相信在诺里奇大学校园里
campus in Norwich could be quite so damaging.
写的一些电子邮件会有这么大的破坏性。
Today, Saudi Arabia's chief climate change negotiator, no less,
今天，沙特阿♥拉♥伯首席气候变化谈判代表表示，
said the leaked emails from scientists at the Climate
东安格利亚大学气候研究所科学家
Research Unit at the University of East Anglia will have a huge
泄露的电子邮件将
impact on next week's Copenhagen summit, even as it's...
对下周的哥本哈根峰会产生巨大影响，即使它是……
You shouldn't be watching that.Why not? It's what I've done.
你不应该看这些。为什么不？这不正是我♥干♥的吗？
That's not true.
他们说的不是真实的。
They've finally found a way to get me, Ruth.
他们终于找到办法套住我了，露丝。
And they'll, well...
而且他们将...
..pull at this thread until it all unravels!
...拉紧绳子，直到它被解开！
They've won, Ruth. No. They haven't!
他们赢了，露丝。 没有，他们还没赢！
They know the truth is out there now.
他们知道真♥相♥就在那里。
So all they can do is try to find ways of delaying how soon it
因此，他们所能做的就是，设法拖延真♥相♥被传到
reaches everyone.
公众面前的时间。
That's not the actions of people who've won. Philip,
这不是赢了的人会做的事。菲利普，
that's the desperation of people who've lost.
这就是失败者的绝望。
You're forgetting something.
你忘记一些东西。
What?
什么？
Not everyone wants the truth to reach them.
并不是每个人都想知道真♥相♥。
两个月后
So, what do you think?I think they're screwed.
那你怎么认为？我认为他们正在晕头转向。
The blogs I get and the American right wing networks,
我看了那些美国右翼网站上的博客，
but the mainstream media following their lead...
但是主流媒体却跟着它们走...
The BBC, for Christ's sake!
上帝啊，你看看BBC吧，
Which is why we need to get him out there. Phil?
所以我们得把他弄出来。 菲尔吗？
We need to put a human face on this, before the House of Commons hearing.
在下议院听证会之前，我们得让这事有点儿人情味。
Get the public back on our side.He could barely talk.
让公众站在我们这边。他几乎不能说话。
Which is why it has to be print.
所以一定要把讲稿打印出来。
No TV.
不上电视。
You're serious?We'll have to coach him.
你没开玩笑吧？我们得教他。
Sunday Times, front page.Do you think they'll take it?
《星期日时报》，头版。你觉得读者会接受吗？
They'll love it!
它们会喜欢的！
It's what they've been baying for, isn't it?
这就是他们一直想要看的吗？不是吗？
The man at the heart of it.
这事件的中心人物。
Edward tried his best, but no-one wanted to know.
爱德华尽了最大的努力，但没人想知道。
So we throw them to the lions.
所以我们把它们扔给一群狮子。
With a couple of lion tamers in the room.
但房♥间里得有几名训兽师。
But yeah, if it means we're the ones feeding them for a bit.
没错，如果这意味着，我们就是要喂狮子的人。
That's exactly what we do.
这正是我们所擅长做的。
No time for anything else.
没有时间做别的事。
Not with that House of Commons committee breathing down our necks.
下议院委员会盯着我们不放。
We'll coach him here. Today.
我们今天就指导他。
Are you sure this is the right...?I'm positive.
你确定这么做，是对的？…我很肯定。
Unless you want to cut him loose.Out of the question.
除非你想摆脱他。不可能。
Well, I had to check.
我得去查一下。
Because if it's the reputation of the university you're trying
因为如果你想挽救的是学校的…
to save... It isn't.
声誉…并不是。
It isn't? Well, yes, it is, but that's no longer the priority.
不是吗？ 是的，但那已经不是首要任务了。
This is about more than the university now.
这不仅仅是大学的事了。
Much more. The science?
牵涉更多的了。 科学？
The truth.Right. That's what's at stake here.
真♥相♥。没错。 这就是关键所在。
And who gets to tell the truth,
谁能说出真♥相♥，
or not,
或者不说出真♥相♥，
about something that affects every living thing on the planet.
关于影响地球上所有生物的事情。
Mea culpa. That's what you open with, before anything else.
首先承认错误。这是最重要的东西。
I'll brief the journalists to ask about the data stuff first,
我会让记者们先问一些关于数据的问题，
the Freedom of Information request. When he does, you put your hands up.
这是信息自♥由♥的要求。他来了，你就把手举起来。
Admit you got it wrong... But those requests, they weren't genuine.
承认你错了…但那些请求都不是真心的。
Yes, we know...The data was already...
是的，我们知道...数据已经…
But admitting that you got frustrated,
但承认你很沮丧，
you could have handled it better, that's very relatable. Yeah.
你本可以处理得更好，这是很容易理解的。是的。
Getting pissed off with a bunch of timewasters who want to prove
对一群想证明你错了的浪费时间的人生气，
you wrong, there's no shame in that.No data was destroyed.
这没什么丢人的。没有数据被销毁。
And that's exactly what you'll say,
但你得明确地说出来，
after you've acknowledged what you could have done better.
你已经知道了，你本可以做得更好。
You say it then and people will listen. It'll sound true.
你说出来了，人们就会听到。它将真实的声音。
It is true.
这本就是真的。
But I need to believe you when you say it is.
但我得相信你说的。
That's all that matters.
这是最重要的。
Right, so, we take a little bit of this and pop it in here.
好的，我们拿一点这个，放到这里。
And then, if you take your finger and poke a nice hole in there.
然后，如果你用手指在那里戳一个漂亮的洞。
That's it. And then, what do you think you do?
就是这样。然后，你认为你做了什么?
Put an acorn in? Yes. Just the one.
放一个橡子进去 是的。只放一个。
There. Maybe a little bit more.
放这儿。 也许再多一点。
So, a trick is just a clever way of doing something.
所以，诡计花招就是做某事的聪明方法。
In statistical modelling, yes, or in maths, a short cut.
在统计建模中，也就是，在数学中，这是一条捷径。
It still sounds suspect. A trick of the trade? A technique?
这听起来还是很令人可疑。这是一个诀窍吗?一种技术吗？
If you like, a solution to a problem.
如果你接受的话，也可以称之为一种解决难题的方法。
But nothing more? No. Good.
-没有别的了吗？- 没有。 -很好。
But then, we get to hide the decline.
但之后，我们可以隐藏下降。
Sent everyone through the roof, this one, hasn't it?
这次你可触到大家的兴奋点上了，不是吗？
Sarah Palin, the US networks, the papers.
保守的萨拉.佩琳州长。美国右翼网站，报界。
What's your defence?
你怎么辩白？
Because it had better be a bloody good one.
难道就说，这是个绝妙的笑话吗？
In as few words as possible, simple and short.
用尽可能少的词，简单而短促。
And in a way I'll believe it.
在某种程度上，我会相信的。
It's about tree rings.
是关于树的年轮的。
What?
什么？
Well, the decline.
那就是有下降的。
It isn't about temperatures.
它们本身和温度无关。
Go on.
接着说。
To predict the future, we've got to understand the past.
要预测未来，我们必须了解过去。
Hubert Lamb's... I'm not interested. Try again.
-赫伯特.兰姆的话...- 我对此不感兴趣。再说一遍。
Go on, Phil.
接着说，菲尔。
Temperature records consist of two kinds of measurements.
温度记录包括两种测量方法。
From around the mid 19th century, we have actual instrument recordings...
从19世纪中期开始，我们就有了真正的仪器记录...
Try it as a question.
试着你在回答提问。
Um...
嗯...
How do we obtain measurements from further back,
在我们有仪器记录之前
from before we have instrument recordings? Good! I have no idea.
-我们如何获得更早的测量?-很好!我不懂。
Educate me. How do we? We use, um, proxy data... Sorry, Phil.
教我，我们该怎么理解？ 我们采用代理数据. 对不起，菲尔
How else might you explain "proxy"? What is it? Um...
你还能怎么解释“代理”?它是什么? 嗯...
The...
它是...
The natural world has a memory.
自然界是有记忆的。
It can preserve the physical characteristics of the past.
它可以保存过去的物理特征。
Past temperatures? Er, yes.Um, and weather events.
过去的温度？ 呃，是的。嗯，甚至天气事件。
What kind of characteristics?
都有什么样的特点？
Well, concentrations of oxygen isotopes in ice.
例如：氧同位素在冰中的浓度。
Or the composition and annual banding in corals.
或者通过调查珊瑚的组成及它每年形成的附着层。
Or the... The width and the density of annual tree ring growth.
或者是…查看树木年轮生长的宽度和密度。
Tree rings?
树木年轮？
Yes, they're wider in a season of good growth, when it's warmer,
是的，在生长良好的季节，天气温暖时，它们会变宽;
and narrower in a season of restricted growth, when it's colder.
在生长受限的季节，天气寒冷时，它们会变窄。
So, you add this stuff, natural characteristics, to the
你就把这些自然界的特性加在
instrument measurements and you get a record of temperatures
用仪器测量的结果中，你就会得到在温度计发明之前的
stretching back in time before thermometers?
远古历史时期的温度吗？
It isn't quite that simple. Put simply, though, is Neil right?
-事情没那么简单。-简单地说，尼尔是对的吗？
Well, yes.
是的。
So, what's being hidden, then, in the paper,
那么，你在那篇论文里隐藏了什么？
you were discussing in that email?
也就是你们在E-mail里讨论的？
I was writing about one diagram,
我写的是关于一张图表，
not a scientific paper. Phil, split any more hairs and I'll go bald.
-不是科学论文。 菲尔， 再出毛求疵我就成秃头了。
It's OK, Phil. Just try to answer the question.
这没关系，菲尔。尽力去回答问题。
What were you hiding?
你在隐藏什么？
This is the diagram.
这就是那张图表。
The blue line is the hockey stick,
蓝线是曲棍球杆，
the red line is my own similar reconstructions
红线是我自己画的类似的重建图
and the green line was produced by my colleague, Keith Briffa,
绿线是我的同事基思·布里法画的，
using tree ring density data.
是根据树木年轮的疏密度数据画的。