地平线系列：冠状病毒特别节目（2020）（2）

Just two years later, COVID-19 gripped the world.
它来自于野生动物 突袭人类
It emerged from wildlife, jumped to people,
而后像野火一样蔓延开来
and then spread like wildfire.
COVID-19是X疾病
COVID-19 is Disease X.
但它只是众多X疾病中的一种
But it is just one of many.
人们有一个普遍误解
It is a common misconception
这只是导致这次疫情的罕见单一事件
that this is just a rare single event that led to this pandemic.
尽管我们仍处在这次疫情的阵痛中
Even though we are in the throes of this pandemic,
但足以导致下次疫情的新病毒
there are new viruses spreading around people
在地球上的某个地方
somewhere on the planet.
已经在人群中传播了
that can lead to the next one.
除非我们彻底改变在地球上的生活方式
Unless we completely change our business as usual
疫情将会卷土重来
on the planet, pandemics will continue to emerge.
我们不知道导致下次疫情的病原体是什么
We don't know the pathogen that will cause the next pandemic,
但我们可以找出它可能藏匿的地点
but we can figure out where it might be hiding.
达斯扎克博士的团队分♥析♥了过去病毒爆发的原因
Doctor Daszak's team analyse the causes of previous outbreaks
并绘图显示下一次可能爆发的地点
to come up with the map that shows where the next might emerge.
地图上黄色的区域代表什么
What is it that makes bits of the map yellow?
地图上反映的是人口密度高的区域
What the map reflects our places of high population density,
同时也反映了野生动物的位置
at the same time it reflects where wildlife are
以及导致新发疾病出现的变化
and where the changes that drive emerging diseases happen
比如土地使用的变化
like land use change.
自1970年来 地球上的人口数量已然翻倍
Since 1970, the number of people on the planet has doubled.
超过一百万平方千米的森林被砍伐殆尽
And over a million square kilometres of forest have been cleared
以腾出空间
to make space.
流行病起源于人口密集的区域
Pandemics originate where there are lots of people,
与野生动物种群互动
interacting with diverse wildlife populations,
侵占它们的地盘
and encroaching into them,
把路修建到森林中 建造农场
building roads into forest, putting up farms.
真正的热点在中西非
The real hotspots are in Central west Africa,
南亚 东南亚 也包括中国
South Asia and South East Asia, including China.
中国拥有丰富的野生动物
China has an abundance of wildlife,
世界上14%的动物栖息在中国
it is home to 14% of the animals in the world.
14亿人口居住在中国
1.4 billion people.
繁荣的经济也推动了土地使用的大幅改变
And a booming economy that is driving massive land use change.
仅在过去的十年中
In the past decade alone,
中国就新建了一百万千米的道路
a million kilometres of new roads have been built.
但中国只是COVID-19
But China is just one of many places
众多可能的发源地之一
that COVID-19 could have come from.
未来的流行病可能潜伏在热点地区中任意一处
A future pandemic may be lurking in any of these hotspots.
所以我们现在能做的是 去那些热点地区
So here is what we can do, we can go to these hotspot regions,
寻找野生动物携带的病毒
we can do things like discover the viruses that wildlife carry
把精力集中在那里 尽量避免疾病发生
we can focus our energies there and try and stop them emerging.
监测一个热点地区
Monitoring just one of these hotspots
就需要耗费大量资源
takes a huge amount of resources.
为了防止流行病爆发
And to prevent a pandemic,
必须要在正确的时间监测正确的地点
you have to be monitoring the right one at the right time.
科学家们已尽力而为
But scientists are trying their best.
在世界各地 病毒猎人们在一线工作
Across the world, virus hunters are working on the front line,
寻找未知的病原体
discovering unknown pathogens and
研究病毒的传播方式
working out how they are transmitted
并试图阻止病毒传播
and trying to stop them.
我们在这里有一个细菌学实验室
Actually, here we run a bacteriology laboratory
但目前我们专门为医院
but at the moment we've dedicated
在做COVID的研究诊断工作
doing COVID research diagnostics for the hospital.
史蒂芬·贝克教授在越南花了五年时间
Professor Stephen Baker spent five years in Vietnam,
追寻新型病毒
hunting for new viruses.
他的团队密切监测了一千余名
His team closely monitored over 1000 people,
最容易染上病毒的人
who were the most likely to be infected.
我们招募了一批动物相关的从业人员
We recruited a cohort of people that were working with animals,
史蒂芬·贝克教授
剑桥大学
包括野生动物商人 农民 兽医
these were wildlife traders, farmers, veterinary practitioners.
这是一名在农场工作的女性
This was a woman that actually worked on a farm.
我们会从他们那里提取样本
We will get samples from them,
采样并找出他们
so we would take samples to try and identify
生病的原因
what was making them sick
我们也会对他们的动物进行采样
and we sample their animals too.
这里我们在对猪进行采样
And here we're there. They're seen sampling the pigs
以辨别病毒是否可能在
to see whether we can identify any potential transfer of viruses
动物与人类之间传播
between the animals and themselves.
要领先疾病爆发一步
The idea is to get one step ahead of an outbreak,
在未知病毒找上我们之前 先找到病毒
by finding unknown viruses before they find us.
有些人还会养殖其他一些
There would be people farming other types of animals
比较奇特的动物
which would be considered to be more exotic,
比如豪猪 甚至是田鼠 竹鼠
such as porcupines, even ricefield rats, bamboo rats.
他们发现了四种新型病原体
They found four new pathogens that
已从动物传播到人类
had jumped from animals to humans.
值得庆幸的是 它们都没有引发流行病
Thankfully, none of them sparked a pandemic.
与此同时 在2414千米以外的武汉
Meanwhile, 1500 miles away in Wuhan,
另一种病原体正悄然而至
another pathogen was waiting to emerge.
显然你们在越南学到了很多
Obviously you learned a huge amount in Vietnam,
但冠状病毒还是大爆发了
but we still had the coronavirus pandemic,
继续这种研究的意义何在
what is the value of keeping doing this kind of research?
我们现在比二十年前 比五年前
So we are in a better position now to understand this process
都更理解这个过程
than we were 20 years ago, than we were five years ago.
这就是我们学习的方式 也是科学进步的方式
This is the way we learn and this is the way science works.
过去三个月发生的事件已突出表明
The events of the last three months have highlighted that
这项工作的重要性
this work is incredibly important.
让我们看到疾病爆发的速度能有多快
It just shows how quickly these things can emerge.
如果我们当时在中国做研究
If we had been doing this in China at the time,
我们就能在流行病之初
then it would have been an enormous insight
实时理解流行病的爆发
into how these things emerge in real time
这将是一个巨大的启示
right at the beginning of the pandemic.
当我们开始试探性地解除封城
As we start taking tentative steps out of lockdown,
进入流行病所创造出的新世界中
into the New World the pandemic is creating,
我们正逐渐意识到人类的脆弱
we are waking up to how vulnerable we are.
对不起 我们关门了
SARS爆发刚过去十六年
It's only 16 years since SARS,
西非埃博拉病毒 H1N1 寨卡病毒的爆发
it's a few years since Ebola in West Africa,
也才过去几年 它们来势汹汹
H1N1, Zika, they are coming thick and fast.
这场流行病已经蔓延到所有国家 所有人口
This pandemic has reached every country, every population
我认为人们正在觉醒
and I think people are waking up and seen the connection
并意识到自己的个人健康与野生动物贸易
between their own personal health
以及砍伐森林等疾病驱动因素间的关系
and things like the wildlife trade and deforestation that drives this.
我真的认为后世的人们
I really think that future generations
会将这一时刻视为关键时刻
will look back on this time as a critical moment,
在这一刻我们意识到了威胁
when we did actually wake up to the threat
并采取了行动
and do something about it.
科学现在是前所未有的中心舞台
Science is centre stage like never before,
世界各地的政客都告诉我们
with politicians all around the world telling us
他们不论何时都以科学为指导方针
they are guided by it at all times.
那意味着存在一种科学的解决方式
But that implies there is a single scientific solution.
但仔细倾听科学家的发言
But listen carefully to the scientists
你会发现他们的回答充满不确定性
and you will hear wrapping their answers in uncertainty,
提醒我们还有多少未知领域
reminding us of how much we still don't know,
科学并不是绝对的
that science doesn't trade in absolutes
也很少给出非黑即白的答案
and rarely gives a black and white answer.
科学无法权衡我们必须做出的取舍
Science can't weigh up the tradeoffs we have to make,
科学没有道德标准
it has no moral compass,
但只要我们理解科学的局限性
but when its limits are understood,
它就会成为最有力的工具
it's the most powerful tool there is
为我们面临的决策提供参考
to inform the decisions we face.