地平线系列：冠状病毒特别节目（2020）（2）

and so that might decrease the reproduction number to about 1.4.
接触追踪应用
好的
OK.
检测 接触追踪以及隔离的策略
The strategy of testing, contact tracing and quarantine
在其他国家也被广泛采用
has been widely used in other countries.
在韩国
In South Korea,
再生数被迅速降到接近零
it quickly brought the reproduction number to near zero,
打破了病毒传播的环路
breaking the circuit of transmission.
但这种策略在新感染人数很低时才最有效
But it works best if the number of new infections is low,
目前英国的情况却不是如此
which is not the case in the UK right now.
有没有什么措施
Is there anything that does
能让再生数降到一以下
get the reproduction number below one?
在这个特定模型里 综合采取了
Well in this particular model, a combination of
此应用的数字化接触追踪 人工接触追踪
digital contact tracing using the app, manual contact tracing
以及降低人们在工作之外
as well as decreasing the number of people
社交隔离
您必须遵守以下社交隔离规定不群体聚集
人与人之间
时刻保持两米距离如果您不遵守这些规定
那我们只能关闭公园
请保持您自己及国♥家♥安♥全♥
所接触的人数
you see outside of work.
在这个模型中 如果那个数字是四
And in this particular model when that number was four,
接触追踪应用
人工接触追踪
工作之外与四人接触
这种策略会使再生数降到0.9
that brought the reproduction number down to 0.9.
就是说 这其中并没有什么可回旋的余地
That's it. There's not that much wiggle room in it.
是的 没有
No, there isn't.
我想这就需要我们权衡取舍了
I guess the trade-off is there.
我们是可以回去工作的
It's possible that we can go back to work,
我们可以回去上学
we can go back to school,
只要我们能同时做到限制我们
just as long as, simultaneously, we limit how many people
在家庭和学校之外所接触的人数
we're seeing outside of family and school,
并进行大量群体♥检♥测
and we do lots of mass testing
接触者追踪 而且我们还有应用程序
and we do manual contact tracing and we have the app,
我们就像站在
it is like you are standing over
一个非常精密的天平上
an incredibly finely balanced set of scales and you are like,
把重返校园置于天平的一端
we want to put going back to school on
另一边则必须拿掉一些砝码
what we have to take off.
这个比喻很恰当 但天平两端事物的
That is very much what it is like but in each of those things
比重是多少我们却不清楚
we don't know how heavy the rates are on either side.
很明显 我们面临诸多考验
What's quite clear is this probably gonna be a lot of trial
可能还会伴随一些失误
and a little bit of error ahead of us,
但在整个过程中起决定性作用的是
but crucial to that entire process,
是对传染数R变化的
all the way along, is going to be monitoring and tracking
持续监控和追踪
what's happening to the reproduction number R.
目前 在传染数追踪方面存在延迟
At the moment, there is a delay in tracking R,
圣托马斯医院
由于追踪取决于住院人数 死亡人数等数据
It can be 20 days out of date as it relies on data
可能会延迟二十天
like the number of hospitalisations and deaths.
英国最杰出的教授和数学家之一
One of the UK's most eminent professors and mathematicians,
迈克尔·凯茨 正在领导一个项目
Michael Cates, is leading an initiative to find
以寻找监控该关键数据的更快途径
a more immediate way to monitor this critical figure.
项目旨在建立一系列模型
The aim is to create a series of models
来观察人类行为
that look at how we behave
及其对病毒的影响
and the impact that has on the virus.
为了实现这一目标 他聚集了一批
To do so, he is bringing together all kinds of expertise
来自建筑行业 超商等各行各业的人们
from construction companies, supermarkets and others,
他们正常情况下绝无共事可能
people who would never normally collaborate.
比如有的人
For instance, there are people
迈克尔·凯茨教授
剑桥大学
懂得你咳嗽过程中的
who would understand the fluid mechanics
流体力学
of what happens when you cough.
然后我们可以让他们和其他
And then we can link them to other people
对建筑物内空气流动感兴趣的人合作
who are interested in the flow of air in buildings.
便可得知咳嗽如何
Then you have a cough interacting
与建筑物内的气流相互作用
with an air flow in a building.
在更大的层面上
And then on a larger scale,
有专门研究
there are teams of people whose expertise is to do
人类有限空间行为的团队
with how humans behave in confined spaces.
还有 在整个城市尺度上
And then, people who think about human behavior
研究人类行为的团队
at the scale of the whole city.
要把所有这些都联♥系♥在一起
So all of these things need to be linked together
才能对当下有全面的了解
to get a complete picture of what is going on.
如果研究从某一声咳嗽的层面
If you're going from the scale of a cough
上升至整个国家的规模
to the scale of the entire country
还有这两者之间无数的可能性 工程量巨大
and everything possible in between, I mean that is vast!
完全正确
Absolutely.
每天都有海量实时数据被采集
Every day, huge amounts of real-time data is already collected
商店 手♥机♥通讯公♥司♥和交通网络
about how we move around,
记录着人们的活动踪迹
by shops, mobile phone companies, and on transport networks.
将这些数据输入新模型有助于
Feeding this data into the new models
更快更准地追踪传染数变化
would help track R more accurately and quickly.
所以你尝试让十八至三十五岁的人回去工作
So you try 18-35 year-olds can go back to work,
第二天从手♥机♥数据上
the next day from the phone data,
你就能得知有多少人 什么人在什么地方走动
you can tell how much and who is moving around where
他们接触的可能性比之前增加了多少
and how much more they are coming into contact
这让你能够迅速地知道
than they were before, and that gives you an immediate sense of
你的决定是好是坏
whether you made a good or bad choice.
未来一年的生活
Life over the next year just
将不同于以往
isn't going to be the same as it was before,
除非我们能找到一种疫苗或有效的治疗方法
until we can find a vaccine or an effective treatment,
其中一些措施将不得不保留下来
some of these measures are going to have to stay in place.
但是我们对传染数变化
But the more that we can understand
了解得越透彻
about the reproduction number,
我们就越清楚
the more that we learn about
人类行为如何影响病毒传播
how our behaviour changes the spread of this virus,
我们就越有可能获得一些正常的表象
the more chance we have some semblance of normality.
疫情过后 冠状病毒会如何变化呢
What might happen to this coronavirus after the pandemic?
如今 一种引起普通感冒的冠状病毒
One of the coronaviruses that causes common cold today is
被认为是导致了1♥8♥9♥0年
thought to have been responsible for a pandemic
死亡人数逾百万的那场疫情的罪魁祸首
that killed over a million people back in 1♥8♥9♥0.
许多科学家认为
Lots of scientists think it is likely that
新型冠状病毒很可能会继续传播
this new coronavirus will continue to circulate.
人们儿童时期候感染
Children will get it when they are young,
长大后会产生一定程度的免疫力
and they will develop some degree of immunity as they grow up,
所以最终可能不会比感冒病毒更危险
so eventually it may become no more dangerous than a cold virus.
即使这种情况真的发生了
But even if that does happen,
我们也一定会面临其他病毒的威胁
we are certain to face other viral threats.
我们如何避免历史重演
病毒存在的时间比人类长得多
Viruses have been here far longer than us.
经过数十亿年
Over billions of years,
它们已经进化出与宿主共存的本领
they have evolved to coexist with their host species.
当病毒离开其自然宿主并转移到一个
The danger arises when a virus leaves its natural host,
无自然免疫力的新物种身上时 危险出现了
and jumped to a new species that has no natural immunity.
比如我们
Like us.
已知大概有两百种动物感染病毒
We know that there are around 200 viruses that
能够跨物种传染人类
infect animals that can jump into humans.
听起来是个很惊人的数字
And that might sound like an alarming number,
但真正惊人的数字是
but the really alarming number is that
有超过五十万种病毒
there are at least half a million more
具有实现这一跨越的潜在可能性
with the potential to make that jump,
而我们对它们几乎一无所知
and we know almost nothing about them.
2018年 世界卫生组织的成员
In 2018, members of the World Health Organisation met
曾开会讨论这个问题
to discuss this problem.
如何保护世界免受一种尚未被发现的
How to protect the world from a deadly pathogen
致命病原体的侵害
that had not even been discovered yet.
他们称其为X疾病
They called it disease X.
疾病生态学家彼得·达斯扎克博士
Disease ecologist Doctor Peter Daszak
是该小组的成员
was on the panel.
世卫组织提出了"X疾病"一词
It was WHO that came up with the phrase disease that
恰恰说明了我们认为
truly make a point that we think
下次疫情不会由已知病原体引起
that the next pandemic will not be known pathogen,
而会是一种未知的疾病
it will be an unknown disease.
当然 他们是对的
Of course, they were right.
仅在两年后 COVID-19挟持了全世界