地平线系列：冠状病毒特别节目（2020）（2）

我们可以看到
and what you can see here is that
四十五岁以下人群中死亡人数非常少
there have been very very few deaths in the under-45s
但随着年龄增长 死亡人数持续增加
but these numbers steadily increase as people get older.
而老年男性的比老年女性受年龄影响更大
And older men here are much more effected than older women.
针对英国国家医疗服务体系的
The latest analysis of 17 million NHS records reveals
1700万条记录的最新分♥析♥表明
that in fact men are nearly twice
男性死亡的可能性是女性的两倍
as likely overall to die as women.
我们也知道基础病史
We also know that underlying health conditions are
至关重要
incredibly important here
增加风险的
and some of the biggest factors
最重要因素包括肥胖和糖尿病
in increasing your risk are obesity and diabetes,
它们会使重症患者的死亡风险
which in severe cases can more than double
增至两倍以上
your risk of death.
地理因素也很重要
And geography matters too here.
这张地图展示了
This map here shows the death rates
三到四月整个英国的死亡率分布
across England between March and April.
仅伦敦和伯明翰就占上报的
Now, London and Birmingham here alone account for
COVID-19死亡人数的近30%
nearly 30% of all reported COVID-19 deaths.
但这些地区当然也有着
But these, of course, are places that are also home
全国最贫困的一些社区
to some of the most deprived communities in the country.
如果你将英国所有地区
If you take, in fact, all of the areas of England
按从最不贫困到最贫困的
and you line them up from the least deprived
顺序排列
to the most deprived,
你可以很明显看出
it is very clear that those who are
受COVID影响致死的最大人群
most impacted by COVID deaths are
也处在全国最贫困的地区
also in the most deprived areas of the country.
当然 这些社区的人们
Of course people in these communities are more likely to
更可能存在健康问题
have existing health conditions,
但同时 收入最低的员工
but it is also that some of the lowest paid workers
包括公交车司机 理货员 医院勤杂工
are bus drivers, are shelf stackers, are hospital porters,
无法在家工作 这让他们
can't work from home, putting them
感染病毒的风险更高
at a higher risk of catching the virus.
种族似乎也与之相关
And it looks like your ethnicity matters, too.
如果我向你展示不同种族组
If I show you the relative risks
死于COVID-19的相对风险
of dying of COVID-19 for different ethnic groups,
你会有一些很惊人的发现
you can see something that is quite striking.
这些数字按照年龄分层进行了调整
Now these numbers are adjusted for ages
数据表明印度黑种人 孟加拉人和
but they show that black Indian, Bangladeshi and
巴基斯坦人的风险远高于
Pakistani people are at a far greater risk here
白种人
than their white counterparts.
几周前有人提出这可能是
Until a few weeks ago some suggested that this might be
因为不同种族的人群更可能
because people from different ethnic groups are more likely
生活在贫困社区
to live in deprived communities
也许更可能存在健康问题
and perhaps more likely to have existing health problems.
结果即便
But it turns out that even
在考虑了所有这些因素后
when you account for all of those things,
黑种人 孟加拉人和巴基斯坦人的
there is still nearly double the risk for people from black,
风险依然是白种人的近两倍
Bangladeshi and Pakistani groups.
当然 这一领域
Now, of course, this is an area that
需要更多研究 英格兰公共卫生局
needs much more research and Public Health England
已启动对此研究结果的审查
has just launched a review to look at just this.
全国的医生正努力拯救生命
But across the country doctors are trying to save lives
来改变这些数据
and make a difference to the statistics
但目前COVID-19尚无有效治疗方法
but so far there is no effective treatment for COVID-19,
因此科学家们正在探寻
so scientists are searching for a drug
对死亡率能够产生
that can make even a small
哪怕是微小影响的药物
difference to the rate of death.
我们会找到解药吗
COVID-19使全世界的医院面对着
With COVID-19, the world's hospitals are facing a disease that
一种几个月前没人见过的疾病
until a few months ago nobody had ever seen before.
目前还没有被证实有效的治疗方法
So far, there is no proven effective treatment.
我们要尽可能地利用
We have to make the best possible use
我们现有的全部药物
of all the medicines that we have.
研发一种全新药物
Developing an entirely new drug can
通常需要十年或更久
often take a decade or more.
所以我们目前唯一的选择是
So, our only option right now is to see
新冠病毒 特朗普吹捧氯喹后
抗疟疾药处方激增
看看现有的药物能否帮助患者
if the drug we already have might help patients.
科学家确定六种潜在的COVID-19药物
哪些药物对COVID-19有效
几种治疗其他疾病的现有药物
Several existing medicines for other conditions
正在进行试验
are undergoing trials.
当面对一种新病毒时
When faced with a new virus,
人们无疑会对针对其他疾病的药物能否
it is understandable that there is enormous interest in
用于治疗甚至成为解药
whether drugs developed for other diseases might
产生极大兴趣
be a treatment or even a cure.
彼得·霍比教授正在进行
Professor Peter Horby is running
此类临床试验中全世界最大规模的一项
the word's largest clinical trial of its kind
以验证现有药物
to test whether existing drugs
对冠状病毒是否有效
might be effective against coronavirus.
彼得此前曾在西非快速蔓延的埃博拉疫情中
Peter previously trialled drugs in the fast-moving
进行过药物试验
Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
那次疫情和当今的一样
Just like today's pandemic,
也涉及一种导致急性感染的病毒
that involved a virus that causes an acute infection.
这些短暂而严重的病毒感染
These very short-lived severe virus infections, they are
彼得·霍比教授
牛津大学
极难治疗 因为治疗窗口太短
extremely difficult to treat, because you got a very short window,
需要非常强大的抗病毒药物
you need a very powerful antiviral drugs
才能阻止病毒复♥制♥
to stop the virus from replicating.
超过一万名病人正在参加
More than 10,000 patients are taking part
英国国家医疗服务体系COVID-19试验
in the NHS COVID-19 trial.
他们被随机分组接受
They are selected at random to get one of the drugs
试验药物或标准治疗
in the trial or standard treatment.
你看过很多报道说
You have seen a lot of reports
我们把这种药发给五个 十个 五十个人
that we give this drug to five, ten, 50 people
他们都好转了
and they all got better.
但如果你给同样多的人一杯茶
But if you gave the same number of people a cup of tea,
他们中大多数也会好转
most of them will get better anyway
这不是茶的作用
and it is not the tea doing it,
所以你需要对照组
so you need a control group.
试验中的一种抗病毒药物
One of the antiviral drugs in the trial was
最初被开♥发♥用于艾滋病
developed for HIV.
洛匹那韦或利托那韦
Lopinavir or Ritonavir,
这种我曾用来治疗艾滋病的药物
the drug that I used to treat HIV,
为什么要用在这里呢
why are we using it here?
在实验室研究中 它对抗冠状病毒也有效
In the laboratory, it works against coronaviruses as well
它会抑制
and it inhibits one of the proteins
病毒复♥制♥所需的一种蛋白
that is needed for the replication of the virus
从而应该能阻止病毒复♥制♥
and so should stop the virus replication
至少理论上是这样
and that is the theory, anyway.
试验中的另一种药物是抗疟疾药
Another drug in the trial is a malaria treatment
在危机初期得到高级别的支持
that had a high level support early in the crisis.
羟氯喹 我希望它能成为
Hydroxychloroquine, I hope it is going to be
非常重要的解决办法
a very important answer.
试验中使用羟氯喹是因为
It's hydroxychloroquine in the trial because
特朗普总统那样说
President Trump said that it pretty there
还是有数据表明它可能有效
or is there data it may be efficacious.
我们不会因为一位政客觉得好
We are not putting anything in a trial because
就把什么东西加入试验中
a politician thinks it is a good choice.
在实验室研究中 羟氯喹确实
In a laboratory, it does work quite well
能有效对抗广谱病毒
against a whole range of viruses
但是当它被用于人体抗病毒试验时
but when it has been tested in humans against the viruses,
它失败了
it has failed.
有研究者认为
Some researchers have suggested that
羟氯喹可能阻止
hydroxychloroquine may prevent
冠状病毒颗粒进入我们的细胞
coronavirus particles entering our cells.
因此这种药物值得一试
So, it is a drug that we should try
因为它是现成的 又安全
because it is available and safe,
但是我们不应该对它的疗效过于乐观
but we should not be overly optimistic about the effects.
人们还对一种叫做
There has also been excitement about
瑞德西韦的药物感到兴奋
a drug called Remdesivir.
瑞德西韦似乎将出现症状的平均时长