地平线系列：冠状病毒特别节目（2020）（2）

地平线
四个月前
Four months ago
世界因一种致命病毒而停摆
the world was stopped in its tracks by a deadly virus.
COVID-19距结束遥遥无期
COVID-19 is a very long way from finished.
严格来说不可能消灭
Eradication is technically impossible.
科学是现在的主角 改变着数百万人的生活
Science is now centerstage, changing the lives of millions.
我们把科学之光照在这个隐形杀手上
We are shining the light of science on this invisible killer.
自♥由♥或者死亡
扔掉口罩
揭露冠状病毒阴谋
停止关门
重启美♥利♥坚♥
但科学似乎往往令人困惑
But the science often seems confusing.
早期预测与现实大相径庭
Early predictions were wide of the mark.
目前已有三万多人死亡
More than 30,000 people have now died.
赛能
羟氯喹
灵丹妙药的开♥发♥未能成功
Wonder drugs have failed to deliver,
免疫手段也尚未实现
and immunity passports are yet to materialise.
六周前 地平线着眼于
Six weeks ago Horizon looked at
我们对这种新病毒的了解
what we knew about this new virus.
但科学从未如此快速地发展
But science has never moved so quickly.
我们为应对冠状病毒绞尽脑汁
We have diverted all our capability for coronavirus.
那现在我们有哪些了解
So what do we know now?
里面有活的冠状病毒
So there is live coronavirus in there.
我们有可能对它免疫吗
Will we ever become immune?
有些人
You have got some people
根本没有产生任何抗体
who have not made any antibody at all.
危险在于群体免疫可能会逐渐消失
The danger is herd immunity could fade away?
是的
Yes.
我们还有多久才能研制出疫苗
How close are we to finding a vaccine?
我们很早就已开始
We have started moving to do real clinical
真正工业规模的临床制♥造♥
manufacturing at an industrial scale very early.
关于这种病毒
And what have we learned
是如何攻击人类的 我们又知道多少
about how this virus is attacking us?
越来越多的证据表明这是一种多系统疾病
There is growing evidence that this is a multisystem disease.
鉴于我们已进入这次疫情的新阶段
As we enter this new phase of the pandemic,
现在的任务不仅仅是
the task now is not just
更加了解这种新型病毒
learning more about this novel virus
也是更了解我们自己 我们的身体如何运作
but more about ourselves, how our bodies work,
我们如何影响彼此
how we interact with each other,
以及怎样利用这些信息
and how we can use this
来保护那些高风险人群
information to protect those most at risk.
我们能够解答
The speed at which we are able
这些问题的速度
to answer these questions is going
将影响未来数周
to affect every aspect of the way we
数月甚至数年里生活方式的方方面面
live our lives in the coming weeks, months and years.
冠状病毒
地平线特别篇
第二集
如果你一年前告诉我一种新型冠状病毒
If you had told me a year ago that a novel coronavirus
会从东亚的某地爆发到人群中
were jumping to the human population from about
克里斯·范图勒肯医生
传染病医生
无论是我还是任何一个
somewhere in East Asia, neither I or anyone
传染病研究者
who studies infectious diseases
都不会特别惊讶
would have been particularly surprised.
事实上有三篇2019年初发表的论文
In fact, there were three papers published
准确地预测到了此事
in early 2019 predicting exactly that.
但自从初次传播以来
But everything that has happened since that initial transfer,
那次初次跨物种突破以来发生的一切
the initial jump between species has been,
至少对我来说
to me anyway,
完全无法想象
completely unimaginable.
为了理清我们的处境和未来会发生什么
To make sense of where we are and what's gonna happen,
作为一个科学家有时最好的做法就是
sometimes the best thing to do as a scientist is to
回顾过去
look to the past.
人们认为冠状病毒感染动物
It's thought coronaviruses have been infecting
已经几亿年了
animals for hundreds of millions of years.
二十世纪六十年代当我们发现
And of the 1960s when we discovered that they could cause
它们可以引起人类的普通感冒时
common colds in humans, we got our first glimpse
我们第一次看到了电子显微镜下的它们
of how they looked under an electron microscope,
研究者注意到它们和日冕很相似
and researchers noted the resemblance to the solar corona.
到目前为止 人群中
Until now there have been four strains of
共有四种广泛流通的
coronavirus widely circulating
冠状病毒毒株
throughout the human population.
其中两种被认为来自蝙蝠
Two are believed to have come from bats,
另外两种可能来自啮齿动物
and the others may have come from rodents.
最近的一项关于新型冠状病毒的研究
One recent study of today's coronavirus produced this
拍下了这幅惊人的图片
extraordinary picture,
显示了附着在一位COVID-19病人
showing individual viral particles attached
垂死细胞上的病毒颗粒个体
to a dying cell from a COVID-19 patient.
这幅图最让我震惊的是
And what strikes me about this image
病毒有多小
is just how small viruses are.
你可以在人类一根头发的宽度上
You could fit 600 of these across
放六百个病毒
the width of a single human hair.
在近期之前 冠状病毒
Until recently coronaviruses has
很大程度上被忽视了
been largely ignored,
因为它们对人类相对无害
because they were relatively harmless to humans.
但在过去的二十年里 情况发生了变化
But in the last two decades that has changed.
这种病毒为何会引发疫情
卫生官员提醒游客
Health officials are warning
警惕一种袭击亚洲的
travellers to watch for symptoms of
神秘肺炎所引起的症状
a mystery pneumonia hitting Asia.
已有九人死于这种高传染性疾病
Nine people have died of the highly contagious disease,
感染者人数更多
and many more have been infected.
它始于中国的一个传统市场
It began in a wet market in China.
一种被认为源于蝙蝠的病毒
A virus thought to have originated in a bats
传播到了当地人群
spreads to the local population.
没有疫苗 也没有人免疫
There is no vaccine and nobody is immune.
这不是今天 是2003年
This isn't today, this is 2003.
这种疾病是严重急性呼吸综合征 非♥典♥
The illness, severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS.
非♥典♥的症状与COVID-19十分相似
The symptoms of SARS were very similar to those
干咳 发热和
of COVID-19, a dry cough, fever and
迈克尔·莫斯利
肌肉疼痛 那是因为
muscle aches, and that is because
非♥典♥是由冠状病毒引起的
SARS was caused by a coronavirus,
是第一个说明冠状病毒
it was the first example we had of just
可以多么致命的例子
how lethal a coronavirus could be.
非♥典♥传播到了二十六个国家
SARS spread to 26 countries,
在被控制前
infecting a little over 8000 people
感染了超过八千人
before it was brought under control.
但那些数比起今天的冠状病毒是小巫见大巫
But those numbers are dwarfed by today's coronavirus.
短短五个月内它已传播到
In just five months it has spread
世界上几乎所有国家
to almost every country in the world,
感染超过四百五十万人
infecting more than 4.5 million people.
这两种病毒看起来几乎一模一样
The two viruses look almost identical.
但只有右边的病毒使生命
But only the virus on the right brought life as we know it
戛然而止
to a grinding halt.
为什么这种冠状病毒会传播到全球
So why did this coronavirus go global when SARS
而非♥典♥却被阻断了
was stopped in its tracks?
德国慕尼黑 在一月底
Munich Germany, it is late January
疫情还未笼罩欧洲
and the pandemic has not yet taken hold in Europe.
但在城外伟巴斯特集团
But at the offices of the Webasto Group
汽车零配件公♥司♥的办公楼
car parts company outside the city,
爆发已然开始
and outbreak is starting.
2020年1月22日
现场重现
食堂里 一名员工把盐递给一位同事
In the canteen, the employee passes the salt to a colleague.
然后将冠状病毒传染给了他们
Then he infects them with the Coronavirus.
两天后 两名员工共用一个电脑工作站
Two days later, two workers share a computer workstation
病毒再次传播
and the virus jumps again.
次日 其中一名员工
The next day one of those workers
在一场九十分钟的会议上与其他人并肩而坐
sits besides another in a 90 minute meeting.
十二天后 十六人被感染
Over 12 days, 16 people are infected.
这是在亚洲之外
It is the first documented case
第一个被记载的多环节人传人案例
of multiple human-to-human transmissions outside Asia--
这群人被叫做慕尼黑集群
a group that become known as the Munich Cluster.
罗曼·沃尔夫上校是德国♥军♥方的一位病毒学家
Colonel Roman Wolfel is a virologist in the German military.
-早上好 你能看清我吗 -很清楚