地平线系列：冠状病毒特别节目（2020）（2）

- Good morning. Can you see me all right? - Perfect.
罗曼想知道该病毒
Roman wanted to find out how the virus
在患者群中是怎样如此轻易地传播的
had spread so easily amongst its cluster of patients.
于是他检测了伟巴斯特的员工
So the Webasto workers were tested,
不仅仅是为了明确病毒携带者
not only to confirm who carried the virus,
也是为了弄清病毒是在
but also to find out where in their bodies
他们体内的哪个部位增殖
that virus was reproducing.
许多样本没有检出感染性病毒颗粒
Many samples came back negative for infectious viral particles.
但咽试子却让研究小组大吃一惊
But the throat swabs astonished the team.
样本的新病毒检测呈强阳性
The samples were highly positive for the new virus.
意味着每毫升十亿个病毒
We are talking about a billion viruses per milliliter,
罗曼·沃尔夫博士上校
德国联邦国防军微生物研究所
这种病毒显然能在
the virus is obviously able to replicate
上呼吸系统中复♥制♥
in the upper respiratory system.
非♥典♥病毒的复♥制♥部位深在气管和肺部
The SARS virus replicated deep in the windpipe and lungs.
但如今这种病毒似乎在
But today's virus seems to reproduce
上呼吸系统中增殖
in the upper respiratory system--
有助于病毒传播
helping the virus spread.
如果咽喉有病毒复♥制♥
With the virus replicating in your throat,
距离对病毒来说并不远
the distance for the virus is not too far,
你无须咳嗽
you don't have to cough necessarily to...
就基本能喷出小液滴
basically to spit out little droplets
这些液滴可能会导致他人感染
and those droplets might cause the infection of others.
这是该病毒最重要的新特征之一
So this is one of the most important new features of this virus.
我们之前见过在鼻腔和咽喉
We've seen Coronaviruses that replicate
复♥制♥的冠状病毒
in the nose and throat before.
但它们通常只导致普通感冒
But they usually just cause the common cold.
这种病毒有什么不同
What's different about this virus?
它是否沿身体下行引起死亡
Is it travels down the body to become deadly?
对有些人来说 它会迁移到咽喉以下
Some people, it migrates further down the throat,
变得更像非♥典♥病毒
becomes more like SARS,
甚至下行至肺部 发展为肺炎
can even go down into the lungs where you develop pneumonia
病情会变得很严重
and you become seriously ill.
所以其实
So it's the fact
它可以先后侵袭不同部位
that it can do this and then that,
这使它非常可怕
which makes it so scary.
但这种病毒传播性比非♥典♥病毒更强
But the reason this virus is more transmissible than SARS
并不仅仅因为它出自鼻腔和咽喉
isn't simply because it starts out in the nose and throat.
还取决于被感染者何时
It is also because the point
能开始传递病毒
when infected people can start passing the virus on--
这一过程被称为散播
a process known as shedding.
科学家在认定慕尼黑集群的
Something scientists discovered when they identified
感染源时有所发现
the source of the Munich Cluster's infections.
2020年1月22日
就在盐瓶
On the same day the salt shaker
在伟巴斯特集团食堂被传递的同一天
has been passed around in the Webasto group canteen,
一位女商人抵达慕尼黑机场
a business woman arrived at Munich airport
在结束汽车零配件公♥司♥四天的会议后
returning to Shanghai after four days of meetings
即将返回上海
at the car parts company.
尽管她并不知道她已感染COVID-19
Although she doesn't know it, she has COVID-19
并会在落地中国不久后住院
and will be hospitalised soon after she lands in China.
她被认为引发了
It is believed she is responsible for
欧洲第一条记录在案的感染链
starting the first documented chain of infections in Europe.
但在德国期间
But throughout her stay in Germany,
她的症状非常轻微
her symptoms have been so mild
以至于没人察觉到异常
no one realised anything was wrong.
会有很多人携带病毒
Could there be a lot of people out there
却不知情吗
carrying the virus without knowing it?
科学家的一次调查机会出现在二月初
A chance for scientists to investigate came in early February.
2020年2月1日
当钻石公主号♥邮轮
When the Diamond Princess cruise ship
停靠在日本横滨港时
docked in the port of Yokohama Japan,
船上新型冠状病毒肆虐横行
with the novel Coronavirus running rampant on board.
冠状病毒
爆发
在接下来的两周内 所有乘客
All the passengers have been confined to
均被限制在他们的船舱中
their cabins for the next fortnight.
这次爆发提供了一个难得的机会
This outbreak offered a unique opportunity
在一段相当长的时间内
to follow up the passengers and the crew
杰拉尔德·乔威尔博士
佐治亚州立大学
观察乘客和船员的情况
over a substantial period of time.
医务人员检测了船上的三千多人
Health workers tested more than 3000 people on board,
发现634名携带者
634 were found to be carriers.
但令研究小组震惊的是
But to the shock of the team,
这些携带者中很大一部分人
an enormous proportion of these carriers
完全没有症状
displayed no symptoms at all.
约46%检测时没有任何症状
About 46% didn't have any symptoms at the time of testing,
这非常令人担忧
and that was alarming.
这使我们认识到该病毒的这种特性
It opened our eyes to this peculiar property of the virus.
科学家仍不知道
Scientists still don't know
有多少无症状感染者
how many asymptomatic people there are.
但即使在有症状的感染者身上
But even in those who do develop symptoms,
病毒平均会潜伏五天
the virus incubates for five days on average
有时长达两周
and sometimes up to two weeks,
而不引起明显疾病特征
without causing obvious signs of illness.
将这点与罗曼在慕尼黑集群病人身上
Couple this with evidence of Roman was gathering
收集到的证据结合起来
from patients in the Munich Cluster
无症状感染者在该病毒传播中
and it becomes clear how significant silent spreaders could be,
有多么重要便显而易见
in transmission of this virus.
所以他们什么时候产生的病毒最多
So when were they producing the most virus?
在疾病的前五天
They have a high viral load of virus
他们的呼吸系统 咽喉
in the respiratory system, in the throat
有高病毒载量的病毒
during the first five days of disease.
所以他们最可能在前五天
So during the first five days it's most likely
将疾病传播给他人
that they transmit the disease to others.
2003年非♥典♥爆发时
Back in the 2003 SARS outbreak,
患者直到第十天才会达到
people didn't reach peak infectiousness
传染性高峰
until Day Ten.
病症很明显
The illness was obvious
这意味着爆发可以通过
that meant the outbreak could be brought under control,
识别和隔离患者得到控制
identifying and isolating patients.
但如今的新冠病毒携带者在表现出症状前
But people carrying today's coronavirus can shed viral particles
就能将病毒颗粒从咽喉散播进唾液
from the throat into saliva even before symptoms start.
于是这些病毒颗粒能轻易人传人
And these can then easily pass from person to person.
你可能会想象一种
You might imagine the best strategy
致命病毒的最佳策略是
from the point of view of a lethal virus is
进入人体然后迅速杀死他们
to get into somebody and then to kill them very rapidly,
但这种冠状病毒的策略不同
but this coronavirus has a different strategy.
它进入你的体内 使你被感染
It gets into you, becoming infected,
但你不会难受 没有症状
but you don't feel bad, you have no symptoms,
这意味着你会走出家门 进入社区
that means you will go out there into the community and
四处传播病毒
spread the virus everywhere.
但还有最后一个因素解释为什么
But there was one final factor as to why
如今的病毒引发全球疫情而非♥典♥没有
today's virus went global when SARS didn't.
时机
Timing.
十♥八♥年♥前非♥典♥出现时
When SARS emerged 18 years ago,
中国的交通基础设施还没这么发达
China's transport infrastructure was less developed.
现在 九倍的客流
Now there are nearly nine times
从中国飞往世界各地
the number of people flying internationally from China.
不仅如此 疫情的爆发
And to compound this, the virus struck just
恰恰临近中国农历新年
before Chinese New Year.
这是地球上最大的季节性人口流动
The largest seasonal movement of humans on the planet.
据估计 武汉1100万居民中近一半人
It is estimated almost half of Wuhan's 11 million residents
在封城前离开武汉去探亲
had left the city to visit family before the lockdown,
其中许多带有病毒
many taking the virus with them.
现在病毒就在我们之中
Now the virus is amongst us,
以惊人的速度改变着我们的生活方式
changing the way we live at an astonishing pace.
我们开始看到病毒
What we are starting to see is how it is
如何以不同的方式
affecting different people
影响着英国的不同人群
in Britain in very different ways.
谁的风险最大
这是英格兰和威尔士不同年龄组
So here is the data for the total number of deaths in England
总死亡人数的数据
and Wales for different age groups