人工智能的真相（2023）（3）

You're immediately thinking,
"好吧 人类在对未来的期望上
"OK, well, humans don't all agree on what we want the future
意见并不统一" 所以你不得不为了
to be like," so you have to have some compromises
迁就每一个人类个体的愿望而妥协
just to accommodate the wishes of everyone in the human race.
好 其实 我在二十来年前做过一场研究
OK. Now, actually, in my research about 20 years ago,
真真切切地发现了这一问题
I discovered this issue for real.
当时我的工作是
And what I was doing was I was doing
研究人工智能程序
some research on AI programmes
让它们来制定一些规则
that was supposed to come up with rules
以避免互相冲突
that would prevent them from crashing.
我记得这一目标有个形象的比喻
I remember very, very vividly writing down my objective -
"防止火车相撞"
"Stop the trains from crashing"...
对了 这说的并不是真的火车
And by the way, there were no real trains involved.
也没有这样的火车轨道
There wasn't even a train track like this.
这就是在打比方
It was completely simulated.
按下按钮 看看人工智能想出来的办法
...and pressing the button to see what the AI came out with.
它得出的第一结论就是
And the very first thing that it came out with was,
"让火车停下" 就是这样
"Stop the trains from moving." That was it.
这就是它想出来的办法
That's literally what it came back with.
如果火车不动
If the trains are stopped from moving,
就永远不会相撞
then they're never going to do that.
可这不是我想要的
But that wasn't what I wanted.
我要是让一个人类想办法
And if I'd asked a human being for rules to stop the trains
防止火车相撞 我不觉得会有人
from crashing, I don't think that that's what a human being
给出这个答案
would have come out with.
斯图尔特 我们要怎么解决这种问题呢
Stuart, how do we deal with issues like that?
想要正确定义目标
It's really very, very difficult
并下达给机器
to define objectives correctly
真的很难
and put them into a machine.
你得想清楚自己想要什么 -好的
You have to be careful what you wish for. - Ok.
那有更好的办法吗 -是的
So is there a better way to do it? - Yeah.
人工智能系统必须谨记 它并不知道
The AI system has to know that it does not know
我们想要哪种未来
which future we prefer.
人工智能系统在执行操作前需要申请许可
The AI system needs to ask permission before it does things.
"我能把海水变成硫酸吗"
"Is it OK if I turn the oceans into sulphuric acid?"
当然不行 千万别这么做
Definitely not. Please don't do that.
极端情况下 人工智能系统其实宁愿
In the extreme case, the AI system will actually want us
我们关了它
to switch it off.
所以比起炸了数据中枢一毁俱毁
So rather than having to bomb the data centres and everything,
人工智能会说
the AI will just say,
"我要是做了你不喜欢的事
"Oh, if I'm doing anything that you don't like,
就请关了我吧"
please switch me off."
对吧 它不知道我们不喜欢什么
Right? It doesn't know what we don't like,
但它想要避免做坏事
but it wants to avoid doing it.
所以它很乐意我们关了它
And so it will be happy to be switched off
免得坏事发生
to make sure that doesn't happen.
如果我们这样设计人工智能
And if we designed AI that way,
它就能解决我的火车问题了吗
would it have solved my problem with the trains?
当然了
Definitely, yes.
但我想 它可能会说
But I think it might say,
"麦克 你这年纪玩火车有点老啊"
"Mike, you're a bit old to be playing with trains!"
非常感谢 斯图尔特 谢谢你加入我们
Thank you very much, Stuart. Thank you for joining us.
谢谢
Thank you.
人工智能正变得愈加复杂精密
AI is growing in complexity and sophistication,
它正在以
and it's growing in ways
我们难以捉摸的方式成长
that we don't necessarily understand terribly well.
我想 总有一天 或许很快
And one day, maybe soon, maybe a little bit in the future,
或许就在不久的将来
but not too long, I think,
像点点这样的人工智能机器人
AI robots, AI robots like Spot are
就会遍布我们身边
going to be around us everywhere.
不管是工作 学校还是家里都随处可见
We're going to encounter them at work, at school and at home.
那么问题来了
So here's a question.
我们应该如何对待未来
How should we treat the AI machines
即将出现的人工智能
that loom in our near future?
下一环节 我需要一名志愿者
In the next segment, I need a volunteer, please.
就你了 穿白色毛衣的那位 下来吧
OK, you in the white jumper there. Come on down.
你好 欢迎来到圣诞讲座 你叫什么名字
Hello. Welcome to the Christmas Lectures. What's your name?
丽芙 -丽芙
Liv. - Liv.
好的 现在团队工作人员会把你领到后台 丽芙
OK, now, the team are going to take you backstage for a moment, Liv.
我们过会儿再见
We're going to see you again in a few seconds.
他们会让你穿戴一些安全装置
They're going to kit you up with some safety gear.
好 朋友们
OK. Now, folks,
这是个面包机
here is a toaster.
我不喜欢这个面包机 它很没用
I don't like this toaster. This is a useless toaster.
又笨又呆
This is a dumb, stupid toaster.
只会烤面包
All it does, frankly, is make toast.
里面没有人工智能
There's no AI in this toaster.
所以
So...
能让我们的志愿者回来了吗
Can we get our volunteer back on?
欢迎回来 丽芙 -谢谢
Welcome back, Liv. - Thank you.
这是根棒球棍
This is a baseball bat.
拿好它
Take the baseball bat.
现在我要你做的是 等我命令 不要提前
Now, what I want you to do, when I tell you, not before,
我要你打这个面包机
is to whack the toaster.
但是你不能打到这个大脑
Now, I don't want you to whack the brain.
它可是这个房♥间里唯一的大脑
That's the only brain we have in the room, I think,
它对我们来说很重要
so it's very important to us.
所以小心点 站在大脑前
So just be careful, stand forward of the brain.
另外我们要帮丽芙倒数
But what we're going to do is we're going to count Liv down,
丽芙 你要打这个面包机 明白了吗
and Liv, you're going to whack the toaster, got it?
不害怕吗 没错 我认真的
You're not afraid? Yeah. I mean it,
你要打这个面包机
you're going to whack that toaster.
好了朋友们 我们准备好倒数
OK, folks, we're ready to count down.
三 二 一
Three, two, one.
打它
Whack it!
不错
Not bad.
但我觉得你能做得更好
But I think you can do better.
好了 三 二 一
OK. Three, two, one!
打它 好了
Whack! Oh! OK.
丽芙 我想我们可以确定 面包机彻底歇菜了
Liv, I think we can safely say the toaster is toast!
谢谢你丽芙 你可以回到后台了
Thank you very much, Liv. You can go backstage.
击打一个没有生命的物品很简单 比如面包机
It's easy to hit an inanimate object, a toaster.
它只是一堆金属和塑料
It's just a lump of metal and plastic. Ok?
但是那些看起来有生命的东西呢
But what about something that looks like it might be alive?
欢迎回来 点点
Welcome back, Spot!
现在 我要澄清一点
Now, I should be clear at this point,
目前的点点是由米凯尔远程控制的
Spot at this point is being remote controlled by Mikhail.
它没有自主性 点点 你的大限到了
There's no autonomy. OK, Spot. Your time is up.
我们看到你在外面闯的祸了
We saw the mess that you created outside.
外面乱七八糟 你们不会想去看的
It's a horrible mess. You don't want to go there.
点点 是时候送你去见上帝了
Spot, it's time to meet your maker!
我们准备好了吗
Are we ready for this?
我该打点点吗
Shall I whack Spot?
不应该
No!
我真的很想打点点
I really wanna whack Spot.
你们没看到点点闯的祸
You didn't see the mess Spot made.
不要
No!
好吧
Ok.
大家举手
Hands up.
谁觉得我是可以打点点的
Who thinks it's OK for me to whack Spot?
谁觉得我不可以打点点
Who doesn't think it's OK for me to whack Spot?
好的
Ok.
我觉得这个讲座结束之后
There's a few family debates going to go on
有些人要和家长好好聊聊了
after this lecture, I think.
但我先问大家一个问题
But here's the question for you, folks.
点点确实只是一堆塑料
Spot is really just a lump of plastic
金属还有玻璃
and metal and glass,
就像我们的面包机一样
just like our toaster.
所以我们打点点的感觉 就应该
So surely we should feel the same way about whacking Spot
和打面包机是一样的
that we felt about whacking the toaster.
为了帮助我们理解为什么在和人工智能相处时