动物的末日（2009）

在人类文明倒下时迅速崛起
will evolve to take advantage of the fall of human civilization.
"我想我们掉进了老鼠窝，"
"I think we are in rat's alley,
"死人在这里丢失了他们的骨头"
where the dead men lost their bones."
小说家艾略特于1922年写道
T.S. Eliot, 1922.
当小行星撞击让恐龙灭绝的时候
When the dinosaurs were wiped out by an asteroid impact,
我们的古老祖先趁着这个机会慢慢让世界恢复生机
our ancient ancestors took advantage and slowly repopulated the world.
哺乳类动物彻底崛起
It was the dawn of the age of mammals.
现在距离另一颗小行星撞击地球已经过去了几千年
Now thousands of years after another asteroid assaults planet Earth,
处于食物链顶端的已经不是人类了
displacing humans at the top of the food chain.
在人类能够恢复过来之前
What species would fill the void
什么物种会填补我们的空缺呢？
until humans can rebuild?
被人类遗弃的城市废墟可能会成为它们重要的栖息地
The ruined cities abandoned by man may become an important habitat.
我可以预见它们被藤蔓和树木所覆盖
We see them basically becoming covered in vines and trees,
那些在城市里生活的动物已经慢慢接管了这个地方
and taken over by the animals are in cities already.
很多生物甚至可能进化出非常特别的能力
Number of organisms may even involve specific abilities
以便在这中不寻常的地方生存下来
to live in these unusual places.
进化是种很奇妙的事 这当然不可预测
Evolution can do the strange things, it's certainly impossible to predict.
但是在这些破旧的城市废墟中
But lots of strange things could happen
每天都可能会发生很多奇怪的事
in those hulks of the old cities.
历经好几次大灭绝 包括灭绝恐龙的那次
As with the dinosaur extinction and virtually all mass extinctions,
昆虫都能迅速地恢复过来
insects are quick to rebound.
有一个物种在城市里特别常见
One species would be particularly common in cities,
蟑螂
cockroaches.
蟑螂是三亿五千万年前所进化出来的物种
Cockroaches first evolved 350 million years ago,
它们熬过了四次生物大灭绝
they've survived four major mass extinctions,
因此没有理由会认为它们这次会被这次大灾难所打倒
there is no reason to think they're going down this time.
恰恰相反的是
To the contrary,
因为现在有很多食物碎屑可以吃
with plenty of detritus to eat,
而且竞争者也少
and less competition,
它们会变得非常的大
they evolved into giants.
我们这个时代最大的蟑螂大概只有2到5厘米长
The largest cockroaches in our time are just one to two inches long.
但是这些巨型蟑螂可以长到30厘米以上
These roaches can be a foot long or more.
不过它们还是不能完全接管这个世界
Still they can't quite take over.
在过去 昆虫有很多次这样的机会
If insects have had this chance many times in the past,
白垩纪第三纪大灭绝事件发生之后
after the K-T,
有很多种昆虫存活了下来
a lot of insects survive.
但是它们始终都没有成为地球上的霸主
but they don't become the dominant animals on the planet,
昆虫的大小受限于组成它们身体的物质和材料
Insect body plan the very nature of the stuff that makes up their skeleton limits them in size.
没有昆虫可以长到3米多
You don't have any 10-foot sized insects,
否则它们就会被自己的重量所压垮
it would collapse under their own weight.
它们跟过去一样扮演着更加重要的角色
As in the past they have a more important role to play,
那就是成为更大型动物的食物
food for larger animals.
6500万年前 昆虫是啮齿类动物主要的食物来源
65 million years ago, insects were a key food source for rodent like animals.
其中有一些到最后进化成了如今的我们
Some of which eventually evolved into us.
我们可以大胆推测出在这场现代大灾难中会出现这样的情况
We can expect something simpler in this modern-day disaster.
那么如果发生了这种可怕的大灾难
So what do you know we have this huge horrible event
让主要的大型哺乳类近乎绝种
it takes out all the iconic big wonderful mammals?
你觉得哪个物种会存活下来呢
and what are we left with,
那就是老鼠
the Rats.
你没有听错 就是这该死的老鼠
Wouldn't you know is the darn rats?
啮齿类动物很适合快速进化
Rodents are well suited for rapid evolution,
发生大撞击之后正好需要这样的能力来快速进化
and after a big impact, that's what you want, you want to be to evolve quickly.
因为现在的食物链上空出了很多位子
Because there's lots of niches that are now open.
在发生大撞击后的那段时间里
In the post-impact period,
老鼠可以长得非常大
rats could grow very large,
有些甚至和狗一样大
some the size of dogs.
随着啮齿类动物日渐繁荣
But a flourishing rodent population
就会不可避免地会吸引来大量的掠食者来吃它们
would inevitably attract predators of its own.
鸟类很非常幸运地躲过了白垩纪第三纪大灭绝
Birds famously survive the K-T Extinction.
它们是恐龙族系里唯一存活下来的一支
The only dinosaur lineage to make it through.
它们的大小、多元性以及进食习惯
Their size diversity and eating habits
将会帮助它们成功熬过这次大灾难
would help them survive this impact as well.
空荡荡的城市是它们狩猎的好地方
Empty cities are plentiful hunting ground for them.
城市是个复杂的三维空间
A city is a complex three-dimensional environment,
你可以把城市想象成机械化的森林和山谷
you can imagine they're sort of like mechanical equivalence of forests and canyons,
而能在这种环境里过得好的
and the things that tend to do well there
就是那些非常善于在三维空间中活动的生物
are things that are good at moving in three-dimensions.
所以我可以想象在撞击之后的空荡城市中
So I'd imagine that in the empty cities of the post impact future,
猎鹰将成为那时候的顶级掠食者
falcons might be kind of the top predators.
因为它们可以看到在地上移♥动♥的任何东西
Because they could see everything moving on the ground.
猎鹰在空中追踪着地上的巨大老鼠
The Falcon stock the super-sized rats from above.
当人类的数量正在慢慢回复时
While humans slowly rebuild their population,
昆虫 啮齿类和鸟类动物还能够享受一段时间的繁荣日子
insects rodents and birds would enjoy a short period of prosperity.
如果是发生类似于白垩纪第三纪大灭绝那样的事件的话
If it's a K-T level event, probably humanity
人类可能会减少很多
is going to be knocked back to just a handful,
甚至可能只剩下某个地方的一小群人
or maybe even one little pocket of people someplace.
他们会开始重新接管这个世界
And the as they can start to recolonize the globe,
但数量不会太多
their numbers are not going to be very big.
到最后人类还是会恢复过来
But eventually mankind would rebuild itself.
我们无法想象它们会过上什么样的日子
It's impossible to predict what their lives would be like,
但是几乎可以确定的是他们会思考一件事
but almost certainly they would wonder one thing,
那就是他们的祖先是不是能做什么事来避免灾难的降临？
was there anything their ancestors could have done to prevent armageddon.
"醒来 然后站起来 否则你就会永远被打倒"
"Awake, arise, or before ever fallen."
文学家米尔顿于1667年写道
John Milton 1667.
自从上个世纪80年代以来
Since the 1980s,
科学家就一直在研究让恐龙灭绝的那场大灾难
scientists have investigated the disaster that wiped out the dinosaurs.
他们很清楚地球所遭受到的破坏
The devastating effects on our planet are well known.
因此这项研究对我们来说非常重要
This research was important
因为我们知道在未来某个时候这种事一定还会再次发生
as we know that this will happen again sometime in the future.
因此科学家们开始寻找太空中能够给地球带来灾难的小行星
And so the search began for killer asteroids in our celestial neighborhood.
已知的小行星越来越多
The number of known asteroids keeps increasing,
这并不是因为它们比我们想象的多
not because there's more asteroids than we thought,
而是我们现在有更多的时间去寻找
but because we've had more time to look.
到目前为止发现的小行星都不在能撞击地球的轨道上
None of the asteroids that have been found to date are on impact trajectories,
但是你可以预测到
but as you might expect
会有很多小行星呼啸而过 差一点就撞上地球
there are a lot that are whizzing by as near misses.
最明显的是一颗叫做毁神星的小行星
Most notably there's an asteroid called Apophis,
它会在2029年非常接近地球
which is going to come very close to the Earth in the year 2029.
美国太空总署正在密切关注着它
So that's one that NASA is keeping a very close eye on.
有两种方法可以避免小行星撞击地球
There are two main strategies for averting an impact.
摧毁小行星或者让它偏离原来的轨道
Destroy the asteroid or move it out of the way.
但是用核武器来摧毁小行星的想法很快就被科学家们排除了
But destroying the asteroid with nuclear weapons was quickly dismissed.
可能我们最不该做的就是就是把它炸毁
Probably the last thing we want to do is blow it up.
如果有一颗将近十亿吨♥重的小行星朝着地球飞来
So we've got a billion ton asteroid headed your way,
而你把却它炸碎
and you blow it apart,
那么就会有近十亿吨♥重的小行星碎片朝地球飞来
they've got a billion tons of asteroid pieces still coming your way.
如果把小行星炸成100万块碎片
So if you break a big asteroid into a million fragments,
地球大气层就要承受100万个核弹爆♥炸♥所带来的巨大冲击
you gonna have a million nuclear explosions all over the atmosphere of the Earth.
这是好是坏？ 我不知道
Is that better or is that worse? I don't know.
让小行星偏离原先的轨道是唯一可行的方案
Pushing the asteroid out of the way is the only viable option,
很讽刺的是 我们也可以用核武器来达到这个目的
ironically nuclear weapons could be used for this too.
在小行星附近引爆核弹头
Detonating a warhead near the asteroid,
或许就足以改变它的轨道
might be enough to nudge it of course.
它会朝某个方向发射能量
It would inject a mass in one direction
把小行星的本体推往反方向
and push the main mass of the asteroid in the opposite direction.
类似的方案就是使用动能撞击器
A similar technique employs a kinetic impactor,
那就是把一块巨大的金属
just a large hunk of metal
发射到会发生撞击的小行星的轨道上面
sent on a collision course with the asteroid.
这股力量很微弱
It's a very small force,
但是如果很早就施加的话
but if you put that small force on it,
这股微弱的力量就足以把轨道改变 让小行星远离地球
will enough in advance, you can change the trajectory enough to miss the Earth.
把某种物质抛到小行星上 形成一个坑洞
You throw a mass at it and create a crater.
小行星上的坑洞就会释放能量
The crater on the asteroid ejects material
把小行星推往相反的方向
and pushes the asteroid in the opposite direction.
一种不必使用蛮力的方式就是使用引力牵引机
A more elegant method is the use of a gravity tractor.
首先发射一艘太空船到小行星上方
A spacecraft set out to rendezvous with the asteroid,
不可思议的是 仅靠太空船本身的引力
incredibly its own gravity
也许就足以轻轻牵引小行星 让它偏离原来的轨道
might be enough to gently tug the asteroid of course.
这个东西必须要有一个推进系统
You have to have a propulsion system on that mass,
但用不着真附着在小行星上面
but you don't actually have to tether it.