地平线系列：肉食者的困境（2014）

长♥期♥食用适量加工肉制品的人
that eating a moderate amount of processed meat
年死亡风险会增加20%
increases your annual risk of death by about 20%.
但是这个数据值得人们去担心吗
But is this a statistic that's worth worrying about?
食用加工肉制品的风险
How does the risk of eating processed meat
与其他日常事物相比 结果如何呢
compare with the risk of doing other everyday things?
为了解决我对这些研究数据的疑问
To untangle the numbers in the studies,
我请来了来自剑桥的世界著名统计学家
I've recruited world renowned Cambridge statistician
大卫·斯比格尔特教授
Professor David Spiegelhalter.
通过研究一系列
By examining a broad range of stats
与人们生活习惯相关的数据
about who we are and how we live,
我们可以判断某件事
it's possible to determine how certain things
对人的寿命可能产生的影响
might impact our life span.
作为统计学家 你擅长阅读数据
As a statistician, you kind of look at numbers,
了解众多研究
you look at studies and things like that,
但如果缩小到
if you were to kind of nail down
关于人类寿命长短的议题上
what we can really, really say about how long we live,
目前有哪些我们可以确定的因素
what sort of things are we reasonably certain
会导致寿命缩短呢
will cut years off your life?
首先很不幸的是 作为男性就是其中一件
Well, the first thing of course is, sadly, being male.
男性与比自己年长四岁的女性
Every male has got the same risk of dying each year
男性=寿命减少四年
有着相同的年死亡风险
as a woman who's four years older than them.
因此 男性平均寿命比女性少四年
So, on average, men live four years less than women.
然后是吸烟
Then there's smoking.
我们研究发现
We know, for example,
每天吸20支烟的人
that people who smoke 20-a-day
与比他们年长8岁的人
have the same annual risk of death
有着相同年死亡风险
as someone who's about eight years older than themselves.
每天20支烟=寿命减少八年
因此平均来说 如果一生中
So, on average, over the whole lifetime,
你每天吸20支烟 你会少活八年
if you smoke 20-a-day, it's about eight years off your life.
那酒精的影响呢
What about alcohol?
我相信有证据表明
I believe the evidence that says
每天一杯酒其实是良药
the first drink each day is actually medicine,
对你有好处
it's going to do you good.
但如果超过一杯 情况就急转直下了
But after that, of course, it's downhill all the way.
如果你每天都多喝一杯酒
And so if you have an extra couple of drinks a day
或者比这还多 那你大概会少活一年
and beyond that, maybe it's about a year off your life.
每天两杯酒=寿命减少一年
那又如何看待
So, what about the studies
食用加工肉类使得年死亡风险增加20%
that suggest a 20% annual increased risk of death
这项研究成果呢
from eating processed meat?
拿两位四十岁的男人来举例吧
Well, let's take two 40-year-old men,
他们其他各方面非常接近
who are similar in all ways
其中一人每天都会吃两片培根
and one of them has two rashers of bacon every day,
每天2片培根
比如说吃培根三明治
say in a bacon sandwich.
那吃培根的男人预计寿命会比另一个人少两年
Now the bacon-eater would be expected to live two years less.
每天2片培根=寿命减少2年
所以大概可以认为 吃培根的四十岁男人
So roughly you'd expect the 40-year-old who does eat the bacon,
平均能活到78岁
on average, to live till he's 78,
而那些不吃培根的人
whereas the one who doesn't,
可能会活到80岁
you'd expect him to live till 80.
在四十年中少活两年
And losing 2 years over 40 years
相当于每天少活了一小时
is pro-rata like losing one hour a day
只是因为吃了培根三文治
for that bacon sandwich.
当我下次拿起培根三文治时
OK, that will certainly give me pause...pause for thought
一定会停下来想一想的
when I pick up my bacon sandwich.
你可以吃慢点
Eat it slowly.
细嚼慢咽 好好享受
Eat it slowly and enjoy it as well. OK.
如果那些研究和大卫说的是对的
I'm actually quite shaken because if the studies are right
我确实感到惊讶
and David is right,
这个代价确实很大
then that is an incredibly heavy price to pay.
但是数据永远无法说服人类
But statistics never convince people to change their mind,
亲身经历才可以
it is personal experience.
所以我等不及去看看
So I'm really keen to discover
大量摄入肉食对我身体的影响
what effect my heavy-meat diet has been having on my body.
过去四周 我每天要吃
I've been eating about 130 grams
130克红肉和加工肉制品
of red and processed meat every day for four weeks,
是建议摄入量的两倍
that's twice the level that's advised.
但我只是个例
Now, I'm only one person
而且我只在短时间内进行这样的饮食
and I've only been on the diet for a short amount of time,
所以实验结果只针对我
so the results are going to be specific to me
而不能代表绝大多数人
and I'm not reflective of the population as a whole,
但我非常想知道
but that said, I'm obviously very interested to see
我的身体出现了什么改变
if it's done anything to my body.
我现在回到雷丁大学
I'm returning to Reading University,
食品生物科学中心
在改变饮食前 我在这里做过健康检查
where I had a health check before I started my diet.
营养生物化学家冈特·库恩勒教授
Nutritional biochemist Dr.Gunter Kuhnle
致力于研究肉类对肝的影响
studies the impact meat has on the gut.
有一个简单的方法可以检测
A simple way of finding out
我的肝脏对大量肉食的反应
how my gut responded to a high-meat diet
那就是检验粪便
is by providing the lucky man with a sample of my faeces.
库恩勒教授团队在检测亚硝酸化合物的含量
Dr.Kuhnle's team are looking for levels of N-nitroso compounds,
这些化合物会在
compounds that can be formed
我们消化红肉和加工肉制品时产生
when we digest red and processed meat
而且是导致肠癌发生的可疑因素
and are suspects when it comes to bowel cancer.
我的粪便检验结果如何
What about the effects of my stool samples?
我们分♥析♥了粪便样本之后很惊讶
We analysed your stool samples and we were quite surprised
我们没有发现粪便亚硝基化合物含量有任何变化
because we didn't find any change in faecal nitroso compounds.
好的
OK.
我们一般认为
So, what we would normally have expected
人类摄入大量肉食之后
that with this increase in meat,
排泄物中亚硝基化合物的含量会上升
we would have seen an increase in faecal nitroso compounds,
在肉类与癌症的关联中
and these are the compounds we suspect that are linked...
这些化合物是可疑成分
are the link between meat and cancer risk
但我们并没有检测到
and we didn't find anything there.
有什么解释吗
OK, so something, any explanation again?
在我们分♥析♥你的饮食后
Well, after we looked at your diet,
一个可能的解释就是
a possible explanation is that
你吃了许多水果和蔬菜
you consume quite a lot of fruit and vegetables
远比世卫组织的建议量要多
well beyond the five a day
而纤维可以减少亚硝基化合物的产生
and fibre is known to reduce the formation of these compounds.
所以关键是纤维
Right, so, the fibre,
虽然我吃了大量加工肉制品
although I was eating a lot more processed meat,
但是我同时摄入了许多纤维
I was also eating quite a lot of fibre
在某种程度上
and that kind of, to some degree,
防止我的身体受到影响
protected me against the changes.
我想这挺振奋人心的
Well, that's quite encouraging I suppose.
库恩勒博士还收集了我改变饮食前后的血样
Dr Kuhnle has also checked my pre and post-diet blood samples
用来检验胆固醇的含量变化
to look at the levels of cholesterol.
你的胆固醇值从6.2增长到了6.8
Well, your cholesterol went up from 6.2 to 6.8,
增长还是很明显的
so that's quite a bit of an increase.
-变化很大 对吗 -是的
- Right that is a lot, isn't it? - It is.
不止这些 还有低密度脂蛋白
Not only that, but it was the levels of LDL
也就是有害胆固醇的含量也上升了
the bad cholesterol that really went up.
也许测完体脂会有点好消息
Perhaps I'll get better news when I have my body fat checked.
迈克尔 结果出来了
OK, Michael, the news is
你的体脂重量增加了三千克
that your body fat has gone up by three kilos.
-三千克吗 -是的 -天啊
- Three kilos? - Three kilos. - Blimey.
而且大部分脂肪分布在躯干部位
And most of this is in the trunk area,
这并不是好征兆
which is not good
因为这些脂肪很接近内脏器官
because this fat is close to the internal organs
意味着可能会出现胰岛素抵抗和糖尿病
which means you can become insulin resistant and diabetic.
确实是的 内脏脂肪
Indeed, visceral fat
-我很清楚它是怎么一回事 -不是好事情
- and sadly I know all about i t. - Not good news, yes.
-三千克 这么多 -简单地说
- Three kilos! - Putting it simply.
-太惊人了 -是的 非常之高
- That's absolutely phenomenal. - Yes, yes absolutely.
那好吧
Right.
又一个坏消息
Yet more bad news.
只剩血压可能
There's one last chance for some good news
有点好消息了
with my blood pressure.