地平线系列：心智斗争（2014）

To answer this,
我们需要了解我们犯错的演化起源
we need to know the evolutionary origins of our mistakes.
波多黎各海岸附近某处
Just off the coast of Puerto Rico
或许是找到这个答案最好的地方
is probably the best place in the world to find out.
圣地亚哥小岛
The tiny island of Cayo Santiago.
我们现在乘上船 前往圣地亚哥小岛
So we're now in the boat, heading over to Cayo Santiago.
这座岛屿上栖居着上千只猕猴
This is an island filled with a thousand rhesus monkeys.
靠近之后你会觉得
Once you pull in, it looks a little bit like
这儿就像是侏罗纪公园
you're going to Jurassic Park.
你也不确定你会看到什么
You're not sure what you're going to see.
接着你就会看到第一只猴子
Then you'll see your first monkey,
你就会感觉放心下来
and it'll be comfortable, like,
就像是"这儿有猴子 一切都好"
"Ah, the monkeys are here, everything's great."
禁止进入
这是个专门研究猴子的小岛
It's an island devoted to monkey research.
你看到在悬崖那边晃荡的小家伙了吗
You see the guys hanging out on the cliff up there?
挺酷的
Pretty cool.
圣地亚哥岛最特别的地方
The really special thing about Cayo Santiago
就是这里的动物
is that the animals here,
因为过去七年中它们都在人类环境中长大
because they've grown up over the last seven years around humans,
劳丽·桑托斯教授
耶鲁大学
它们完全习惯于人类的存在
they're completely habituated,
这意味着我们能接近它们 给它们看些东西
and that means we can get up close to them, show them stuff,
观察它们如何决策
look at how they make decisions.
我们在这里使用的方式
We're able to do this here
是任何其他地方都无法做到的
in a way that we'd never be able to do it anywhere else, really.
只此一处
It's really unique.
劳丽·桑托斯是来这研究
Laurie Santos is here to find out
猴子作决策时是否和我们犯同样的错误
if monkeys make the same mistakes in their decisions that we do.
我们的主要工作是比较人类和其他灵长类动物
Most of the work we do is comparing humans and other primates,
试图找出人类有什么与众不同
trying to ask what's special about humans.
但我们其实是想了解
But really, what we want to understand is,
我们某些愚蠢的决策的演化起源
what's the evolutionary origin of some of our dumber strategies,
我们作出错误决策的那些地方
some of those spots where we get things wrong?
如果我们能知道这些错误来自哪里
If we could understand where those came from,
我们对此可能会有更深刻的理解
that's where we'll get some insight.
如果桑托斯能证明
If Santos can show us
猴子拥有和我们一样的认知偏见
that monkeys have the same cognitive biases as us,
那就说明这种偏见在很久以前就形成了
it would suggest that they evolved a long time ago.
而如此古老的
And a mental strategy
心理策略几乎是不可能改变的
that old would be almost impossible to change.
我们是在那次金融崩溃前后开始这项研究的
We started this work around the time of the financial collapse.
所以当我们考虑
So, when we were thinking about
可以在猴子身上研究什么愚蠢策略时
what dumb strategies could we look at in monkeys,
很显然
it was pretty obvious
新闻里播的某些人类经济策略
that some of the human economic strategies
会是我们的首要选择
which were in the news might be the first thing to look at.
有一个我们特别想探究的问题就是
And one of the particular things we wanted to look at was
猴子是否有损失厌恶
whether or not the monkeys are loss averse.
但即使猴子再聪明 也没有开始使用货币
But monkeys, smart as they are, have yet to start using money.
所以我们就从这里入手
And so that was kind of where we started.
我们想 "我们到底要怎么问出
We said, "Well, how can we even ask this question
"猴子是否会犯经济错误的问题"
"of if monkeys make financial mistakes?"
所以我们决定给猴子们引入
And so we decided to do it by introducing the monkeys
一种新货币 让它们用此购买♥♥食物
to their own new currency and just let them buy their food.
下面我会向你展示一些
So I'll show you some of this stuff
我们和猴子们做的实验
we've been up to with the monkeys.
在她耶鲁的实验室里
Back in her lab at Yale,
她向一群猴子引进了它们自己的市场
she introduced a troop of monkeys to their own market,
给它们闪亮的圆形代币 可以用来换取食物
giving them round shiny tokens they could exchange for food.
这是霍利
So here's Holly.
她过来后递过一枚代币
She comes in, hands over a token
可以看到 她拿走了葡萄
and you can see, she just gets to grab the grape there.
我们首先想知道的是
One of the first things we wondered was just,
它们能在某种程度上了解到
can they in some sense learn
不同商店以不同的价格出♥售♥不同的食物吗
that a different store sells different food at different prices?
我们就让猴子面临这种情况
So what we did was, we presented the monkeys with situations
让它们面对以不同的价格
where they met traders
出♥售♥不同东西的卖♥♥家
who sold different goods at different rates.
大家可在这一段中看到
So what you'll see in this clip
猴子面对着新的卖♥♥家
is the monkeys meeting a new trader.
她的葡萄价格是一枚代币换三颗
She's actually selling grapes for three grapes per one token.
我们在这个案例中发现
And what we found is that in this case,
猴子们很理性
the monkeys are pretty rational.
它们在发现三颗葡萄卖♥♥一枚代币的卖♥♥家时
So when they get a choice of a guy who sells, you know,
就会从这里买♥♥更多
three goods for one token, they actually shop more at that guy.
教会猴子钱的价值后
Having taught the monkeys the value of money,
下一步就是观察猴子会不会像人一样
the next step was to see if monkeys, like humans,
受到损失厌恶的困扰
suffer from that most crucial bias, loss aversion.
我们做的就是为猴子引见
And so what we did was, we introduced the monkeys to traders
可造成猴子相对损失或收益的卖♥♥家
who either gave out losses or gains relative to what they should.
所以我可以让猴子认为他得到了奖励
So I could make the monkey think he's getting a bonus
只需让它与这位卖♥♥家交易
simply by having him trade
卖♥♥家一开始只出♥售♥一颗葡萄
with a trader who's starting with a single grape
但在猴子付过代币之后
but then when the monkey pays this trader,
她会再给猴子一颗 作为奖励
she actually gives him an extra, so she gives him a bonus.
最终 猴子拿到了两颗
At the end, the monkey gets two,
但他认为第二颗是奖励
but he thinks he got that second one as a bonus.
然后就将这个案例
We can then compare what the monkeys do with that guy
与给猴子带去损失的案例对比
versus a guy who gives the monkey losses.
这位卖♥♥家出现后
This is a guy who shows up,
假装要卖♥♥三颗葡萄
who pretends he's going to sell three grapes,
但当猴子付过代币后
but then when the monkey actually pays this trader,
他会拿走一颗葡萄 只给猴子两颗
he'll take one of the grapes away and give the monkeys only two.
重要的问题是猴子在面对
The big question then is how the monkeys react
损失与收益的选择时 如何反应
when faced with a choice between a loss and a gain.
她会走进来 之前已经见过这两个人
So she'll come in, she's met these two guys before.
可以看到它选择了有奖励的那位
You can see she goes with the bonus option,
甚至还耐心等待了另外一颗葡萄
even waits patiently for her additional piece to be added here,
然后拿走奖励
and then takes the bonus,
回避着为它带去过损失的人
avoiding the person who gives her losses.
所以猴子和人一样讨厌损失
So monkeys hate losing just as much as people.
重要的是 桑托斯还发现猴子
And crucially, Santos found that monkeys, as well,
在面对损失时更喜欢冒险
are more likely to take risks when faced with a loss.
这告诉我们
This suggests to us
猴子似乎在做决定时
that the monkeys seem to frame their decisions
和我们完全一样
in exactly the same way we do.
它们不仅会考虑绝对收益
They're not thinking just about the absolute,
还有与自己期望值的相对收益
they're thinking relative to what they expect.
它们在得到比期望值更少的收益
And when they're getting less than they expect,
遭受损失时 也会更喜欢追求冒险
when they're getting losses, they too become more risk-seeking.
我们与猴子拥有这同一种偏好的现象
The fact that we share this bias with these monkeys
表明这是种古老的策略
suggests that it's an ancient strategy
三千五百多万年前就烙印在DNA中了
etched into our DNA more than 35 million years ago.
我们从猴子身上学习到的是
And what we learn from the monkeys is that
如果这种偏好真的具有长远历史
if this bias is really that old,
如果我们真的
if we really have had
在过去的三千五百万年里都有这种策略
this strategy for the last 35 million years,
简单地决定去克服它是没用的
simply deciding to overcome it is just not going to work.
我们需要更好的方法
We need better ways to
让自己避开这种陷阱
make ourselves avoid some of these pitfalls.
犯错似乎
Making mistakes, it seems,
是人之常情
is just part of what it is to be human.
我们困于自己内心那个靠直觉思考的陌生人
We are stuck with our intuitive inner stranger.
这造成的挑战是深远的
The challenge this poses is profound.
如果犯这些意料之中的错误是人之常情
If it's human nature to make these predictable mistakes
我们无法改变 那该怎么办
and we can't change that, what, then, can we do?
我们需要接受自己的本质
We need to accept ourselves as we are.
做人而不是猴子 很好的一点就是
The cool thing about being a human versus a monkey
我们具有审慎的内心
is that we have a deliberative self
可以反思我们的偏见
that can reflect on our biases.