地平线系列：心智斗争（2014）

但这些错误的有趣之处在于
But the really interesting thing about these mistakes is,
它们绝非偶然
they're not accidents.
七十五镑
75?
他们有形状 有结构
They have a shape, a structure.
我想是罗马
I think Rome.
误导了我们的判断
Skewing our judgment.
二十镑
20.
有趣的是他们并非随机错误
What makes them interesting is that they are not random errors.
而是偏见 偏见与随机错误的
They are biases, so the difference between a bias
区别在于偏见是可预见的
and a random error is that a bias is predictable.
结构性的谬误是可预见的
It's a systematic error that is predictable.
卡尼曼的谜题不断引出错误答案
Kahneman's puzzles prompt the wrong reply again.
更可能
More likely.
一而再
And again.
-更可能 -更可能
- More likely. - More likely?
再而三
And again.
也许更有可能
Probably more likely?
这种人类谬误模式
It's a pattern of human error
影响着我们每个人
that affects every single one of us.
就个体而言 问题似乎不大
On their own, they may seem small.
应该在这个抽屉里的
Ah, that seems to be the right drawer.
但通过找出我们的日常错误...
But by rummaging around in our everyday mistakes...
奇怪了
That's very odd.
卡尼曼掀起了一场
Kahneman started a revolution
对人类思维认知的革命
in our understanding of human thinking.
他因为这场意义重大
A revolution so profound
影响深远的革命而荣获诺贝尔奖
and far-reaching that he was awarded a Nobel prize.
你想看看奖牌
So if you want to see the medal,
就长这样
that's what it looks like.
就这样
That's it.
心理学家长♥期♥致力于找出
Psychologists have long strived to pick apart the moments
人们做出决策的瞬间
when people make decisions.
许多都着重研究我们的理性思维
Much of the focus has been on our rational mind,
我们的逻辑能力
our capacity for logic.
但卡尼曼对思维有着不同看法
But Kahneman saw the mind differently.
他发现在思维中扮演更重要角色的那部分
He saw a much more powerful role for the other side of our minds,
直觉
intuition.
人类思维的核心
And at the heart of human thinking,
存在着
there's a conflict
逻辑与谬误直觉的较量
between logic and intuition that leads to mistakes.
卡尼曼和塔夫斯基开创了
Kahneman and Taverski started this
转换视角看思维的风气
trend of seeing the mind differently.
他们发现了这些决策错觉
They found these decision-making illusions,
发现了我们的直觉让我们
these spots where our intuitions just make us decide
做出不合理决定的情况
these things that just don't make any sense.
卡尼曼同塔夫斯基的研究确有颠覆性
The work of Kahneman and Taverski has really been revolutionary.
它打败了一堆试图理解
It kicked off a flurry of experimentation
这种谬误的实验及观察方式
and observation to understand the meaning of these mistakes.
四十年前 人们还不愿相信
People didn't really appreciate, as recently as 40 years ago,
大脑不同于计算机的工作方式
that the mind didn't really work like a computer.
我们认为自己是有目的有意识的动物
We thought that we were very deliberative, conscious creatures
我们会在行动前计算得失
who weighed up the costs and benefits of action,
正如史波克一样
just like Mr Spock would do.
可是如今 人们对直觉背离常理的
By now, it's a fairly coherent body of work
种种情况
about ways in which
已有较全面的了解
intuition departs from the rules, if you will.
证据在不断变多
And the body of evidence is growing.
有关我们大脑运作的许多最佳线索
Some of the best clues to the working of our minds
并非来自我们的正确决定 而来自错误
come not when we get things right, but when we get things wrong.
联合学院
1997届学生
在这安静校园的一隅
In a corner of this otherwise peaceful campus,
克里斯·查布里斯教授要预演一场打斗
Professor Chris Chabris is about to start a fight.
好啦
All right, so
我想请你们几个待在这里
what I want you guys to do is stay in this area over here.
两个大块头抓住你
The two big guys grab you
假装要对你拳脚相加
and sort of like start pretending to punch you,
弄点声音出来
make some sound effects.
好 看上去不错
All right, this looks good.
好了 我很满意
All right, that seemed pretty good to me.
这是一种实验
It's part of an experiment
揭示了我们每个人
that shows a pretty shocking mistake
都可能犯的惊人错误
that any one of us could make.
这个错误是你全然不知
A mistake where you don't notice
发生在你眼皮底下的事
what's happening right in front of your eyes.
实验中不仅涉及打斗 还包括追逐
As well as a fight, the experiment also involves a chase.
实验受1995年波士顿的一个事件所启发
It was inspired by an incident in Boston in 1995,
一名年轻警官 肯尼·康利
when a young police officer, Kenny Conley,
正在紧追杀人嫌犯
was in hot pursuit of a murder suspect.
结果 这名警官
It turned out that this police officer,
在追捕嫌犯时
while he was chasing the suspect,
刚好跑过了一群
had run right past some other police officers
在殴打另一名嫌犯的警♥察♥
who were beating up another suspect, which, of course,
克里斯托弗·查布里斯教授
纽约 联合大学
而警♥察♥殴打嫌犯是万万不可的
police officers are not supposed to do under any circumstances.
当警方开始调查
When the police tried to investigate
这宗暴♥力♥执法时
this case of police brutality,
他说 "我什么也没看到"
he said, "I didn't see anything going on there,"
"我只看到了在追的嫌犯"
"All I saw was the suspect I was chasing."
没有人相信他
And nobody could believe this
他因做伪证和妨碍司法公正受刑
and he was prosecuted for perjury and obstruction of justice.
所有人都坚信康利在撒谎
Everyone was convinced that Conley was lying.
最好不要靠得太近...
We don't want you to be, like, closer than about...
除了克里斯·查布里斯
Everyone, that is, apart from Chris Chabris.
他猜测也许是我们的注意力有限
He wondered if our ability to pay attention
任何人都有可能经过一场恶斗
is so limited that any one of us could run past a vicious fight
而毫无察觉
without even noticing.
这正是他要测试的
And it's something he's putting to the test.
你们一看见有人跑过桥
Now, when you see someone jogging across the footbridge,
就开始打斗
then you should get started.
杰基 你可以跑了
Jackie, you can go.
在这项实验中
In the experiment,
实验对象被要求专注于一项认知任务
the subjects are asked to focus carefully on a cognitive task.
她们必须数清
They must count the number of times
跑步者每只手拍头的次数
the runner taps her head with each hand.
他们会不会像波士顿的警官一样
Would they, like the Boston police officer,
被有限的注意力所蒙蔽
be so blinded by their limited attention
完全没有发现打斗事件
that they would completely fail to notice the fight?
跑了大概四十五秒到一分钟打架者出现了
About 45 seconds or a minute into the run, there was the fight.
她们在不远处就能看见打斗
And they could actually see the fight from a ways away,
最近的时候
and it was about 20 feet away
大约只有六米远
from them when they got closest to them.
打架正在她们的视域内发生
The fight is right in their field of view,
而且在她们还在桥上时
and at least partially visible
也起码能看到一部分
from as far back as the footbridge.
这么明显居然有人没注意到
It seems incredible that anyone would fail to notice
这十分让人震惊
something so apparently obvious.
跑完了三分钟的路程
They completed the three-minute course
我们就问 你有没有发现不寻常的事
and then we said, "Did you notice anything unusual?"
是的
Yes.
-什么事 -有人打架
- What was it? - It was a fight.
有时候他们会注意到打架 然后说
Sometimes they would have noticed the fight and they would say,
"对 我看见有人打架"
"Yeah, I saw some guys fighting",
不过很大一部分人说
but a large percentage of people said
"我们什么也没看见"
"We didn't see anything unusual at all."
而当我们具体问到
And when we asked them specifically about
你们看见有人打架没 他们仍说没有
whether they saw anybody fighting, they still said no.
事实上 几乎有半数实验对象
In fact, nearly 50% of people in the experiment
完全没看到打架
completely failed to notice the fight.
你跑步时看见什么不寻常的事吗
Did you see anything unusual during the run?
没有
No.