地平线系列：心智斗争（2014）

我们自以为是很聪明的物种
We like to think that as a species, we are pretty smart.
我们常认为自己有智慧 有理性
We like to think we are wise, rational creatures.
我认为我们总觉得自己
I think we all like to think of ourselves
多少有点像史波克
as Mr Spock to some degree.
星际迷航人物 以理性闻名
我们依理性有意识地决策
You know, we make rational, conscious decisions.
但我们也许得再想想
But we may have to think again.
这多半是错觉 该醒醒了
It's mostly delusion, and we should just wake up to that fact.
你每次做决策
In every decision you make,
大脑中直觉与逻辑都会相争
there's a battle in your mind between intuition and logic.
这一斗争体现在你生活的每一细节
It's a conflict that plays out in every aspect of your life.
你吃什么
What you eat.
你相信什么
What you believe.
你与谁恋爱
Who you fall in love with.
而在做有关钱的决策时斗争最为严重
And most powerfully, in decisions you make about money.
一旦牵涉到钱 情况就变了
The moment money enters the picture, the rules change.
科学家们如今找到一个
Scientists now have a new way
了解这种脑内斗争的新方法
to understand this battle in your mind,
弄清其是如何改变你的决策及信念...
how it shapes the decisions you take, what you believe...
并理解它如何改变了我们
And how it has transformed our understanding
对人性本身的认识
of human nature itself.
地平线
决策的真♥相♥
坐在这辆纽约出租车后座上的
Sitting in the back of this New York cab
是丹尼·卡尼曼教授
is Professor Danny Kahneman.
2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者
他被认为是当今
He's regarded as one of
最有影响力的在世心理学家之一
the most influential psychologists alive today.
过去四十年间
Over the last 40 years,
他对我们如何做决策
he's developed some extraordinary insights
提出了许多惊人洞见
into the way we make decisions.
我认为对人性及大脑运作方式
I think it can't hurt to have a realistic view of human nature
持有现实观有益无害
and of how the mind works.
他的洞见主要来源于解谜
His insights come largely from puzzles.
例如 纽约出租车司机身上的谜团
Take, for instance, the curious puzzle of New York cab drivers
还有他们毫无逻辑的工作习惯
and their highly illogical working habits.
生意受天气影响
Business varies according to the weather.
下雨天 人人都想打车
On rainy days, everyone wants a cab.
但像今天这种大晴天 很难招揽生意
But on sunny days, like today, fares are hard to find.
逻辑上讲他们该花许多时间
Logically, they should spend a lot of time
在雨天出工
driving on rainy days,
丹尼·卡尼曼教授
普林斯顿大学
因为在雨天很容易招揽乘客
because it's very easy to find passengers on rainy days,
如果他们想休息则应选在晴天
and if they are going to take leisure, it should be on sunny days
但事实上许多司机都不会如此
but it turns out this is not what many of them do.
许多人恰好相反 在低效的晴天长时间工作
Many do the opposite, working long hours on slow, sunny days
而在繁忙的雨天提早收工
and knocking off early when it's rainy and busy.
并非诉诸逻辑思维 驱使司机的是
Instead of thinking logically, the cabbies are driven by an urge
每日定额的盈利
to earn a set amount of cash each day,
不论晴雨
come rain or shine.
盈利一旦达标他们就回家
Once they hit that target, they go home.
他们认为不达标就是损失
They view being below the target as a loss
而超标则是盈余
and being above the target as a gain, and they care more
与其多赚他们更担心的是损失
about preventing the loss than about achieving the gain.
因此在雨天他们一赚够就收工...
So when they reach their goal on a rainy day, they stop...
这实在不合逻辑
Which really doesn't make sense.
如果他们想获得最大收益
If they were trying to maximise their income,
就应该在晴天休息
they would take their leisure on sunny days
而在雨天全天工作
and they would drive all day on rainy days.
正是这种思维误区
It was this kind of glitch in thinking
让卡尼曼意识到可以反映出
that Kahneman realised could reveal something profound
大脑内部工作的重要机能
about the inner workings of the mind.
有人想参与实验吗
Anyone want to take part in an experiment?
于是他设计了一系列谜题
And he began to devise a series of puzzles and questions
如今发展为心理学的经典测试
which have become classic psychological tests.
-实验很简单 -这个游戏很有趣...
- It's a simple experiment. - It's a very attractive game...
没关系 先生 不必在意
Don't worry, Sir. Nothing strenuous.
提出问题让你意识到
Posing problems where you can recognise in yourself
自己的直觉总把自己带偏
that your intuition is going the wrong way.
回答这类谜题时
The type of puzzle
直接浮现在脑海中
where the answer that intuitively springs to mind,
且显而易见的答案其实都是错的
and that seems obvious, is, in fact, wrong.
有一个所有人都适用的问题
Here is one that I think works on just about everybody.
假设有个叫史蒂夫的人
I want you to imagine a guy called Steve.
你和人们说史蒂夫
You tell people that Steve, you know,
是个温和整洁的人
is a meek and tidy soul
非常注重细节
with a passion for detail
对他人漠不关心
and very little interest in people.
他很关注细节
He's got a good eye for detail.
然后你说这人是从美国人口普查中
And then you tell people he was drawn at random.
随机抽选出来的
From a census of the American population.
那他会是个农民
What's the probability that he is a farmer
还是图书管♥理♥员♥
or a librarian?
你觉得史蒂夫更有可能
So do you think it's more likely
是名图书管♥理♥员♥还是农民
that Steve's going to end up working as a librarian or a farmer?
他更有可能是哪类人
What's he more likely to be?
图书管♥理♥员♥吧
Maybe a librarian.
图书管♥理♥员♥
Librarian.
可能是图书管♥理♥员♥
Probably a librarian.
图书管♥理♥员♥
A librarian.
随即 脑海中产生的想法认为
Immediately, you know, the thought pops to mind
他是名图书管♥理♥员♥
that it's a librarian,
因为他与图书管♥理♥员♥的形象相符
because he resembled the prototype of librarian.
图书管♥理♥员♥吧
Probably a librarian.
事实上 这有可能是错误答案
In fact, that's probably the wrong answer,
因为 至少在美国
because, at least in the United States,
男性农民的数量是男图书管♥理♥员♥的二十倍
there are 20 times as many male farmers as male librarians.
-图书管♥理♥员♥ -图书管♥理♥员♥
- Librarian. - Librarian.
因此你认识的温和整洁的人中
So there are probably more meek and tidy souls you know
农民可能多于图书管♥理♥员♥
who are farmers than meek and tidy souls who are librarians.
这类谜题似乎能揭示
This type of puzzle seemed to reveal a discrepancy
直觉和逻辑间的矛盾
between intuition and logic.
再举个例子...
Another example is...
想象一本字典
Imagine a dictionary.
我将随机从中抽取一个单词
I'm going to pull a word out of it at random.
你随机选的词
Which is more likely,
打头字母为R的可能性
that a word that you pick out
和第三个字母
at random has the letter R
是R的可能性
in the first position
哪个比较大
or has the letter R in the third position?
-R打头的可能性大 -好的
-- Erm, start with the letter R. - OK.
人们觉得R打头的可能性大
People think the first position,
因为很容易举出例子
because it's easy to think of examples.
-R打头 -R打头
- Start with it. - First.
事实上 R在第三位的几率
In fact, there are nearly three times as many words with R
几乎是以R打头的三倍
as the third letter, than words that begin with R,
但直觉却并非如此
but that's not what our intuition tells us.
这种例子我们不胜枚举
So we have examples like that. Like, many of them.
上世纪七十年代卡尼曼开始关注人的谬误
Kahneman's interest in human error was first sparked in the 1970s
当时他与同事阿摩司·塔夫斯基
when he and his colleague, Amos Taverski,
开始审视自身错误
began looking at their own mistakes.
这些谬误我们都犯
It was all in ourselves.
我们所研究的错误
That is, all the mistakes that we studied were mistakes
都是我们自己常犯的
that we were prone to make.
我手上有一百镑
In my hand here, I've got 100 pounds.
卡尼曼与塔夫斯基发现了一堆这种谜题
Kahneman and Taverski found a treasure trove of these puzzles.
你更喜欢哪个
Which would you prefer?
他们揭示了一系列人类谬误
They unveiled a catalogue of human error.
你会为一顿免费早餐去罗马吗
Would you rather go to Rome with a free breakfast?
并打开了承载错误的潘多拉魔盒
And opened a Pandora's Box of mistakes.
一年零一天
A year and a day.
二十五镑
25?