BBC地平线：人工智能指南（2018）

人工智能
Artificial intelligence.
它是什么 它如何运作 又有何用
What is it? How does it work? What can it do?
娱乐 信息 沟通
回顾近六十年来的《地平线》影片
By looking back through almost 60 years of Horizon archive,
全部数字化
我们能勾勒出它的发展轨迹
we can trace its growth,
同时也可以发现人工智能
and we can also track how our relationship with artificially
与人类的关系变化似乎遵循着同一个模式
intelligent technology seems to be following a pattern.
首先热切的乐观主义与理想化
First comes bright-eyed optimism and idealism...
我们唯一能确定的是
The only thing we can be sure of about the future is
未来一定非常美妙
that it will be absolutely fantastic.
恐惧和顾虑随后降临
Then fear and caution.
未来的人工智能可能把人类变成宠物
The artificial intelligences of the future might keep us as pets.
而后又回归希望和信心
Then it's back to hope and belief.
这种模式的成因是
This pattern seems to have emerged
我们身边不断涌现的技术
because of the practical applications and limitations
具有应用上和自身的局限性
of the evolving technology around us.
你好 肯 我想问
Hello, Ken. Say, I was wondering...
科技每一次飞跃
With each new technological leap,
我们都发明出适用于新领域的机器
we're able to invent machines that can do new and different things.
它抓住了
It caught it!
与此同时也产生了相应新的恐慌
And we therefore develop different fears to deal with them.
人类已经被纳米机器人
Human life has been wiped out
消灭了
by the nano bot.
你必须承认计算机可能会失去控制
You've got to admit that computers can get out of control.
不久以前我们还以为人工智能机器人
It wasn't so long ago we thought artificially intelligent robots
会掌控世界
would take over the world.
现在看来更有可能是
Now it's more likely to be a mainframe
处理银行数据的大型计算机
with access to our banking details.
我们即将进入一个新的周期吗
Are we about to enter a new decade,
对人工智能的前景充满乐观
optimistic about all that AI can deliver?
还是担心它会控制我们生活的方方面面
Or fearful of its ability to control vast areas of our lives?
地平线
地平线版人工智能指南
现代计算机主要起源于
The roots of the modern computer were largely developed
第二次世界大战
during the Second World War.
但直到二十世纪五六十年代
But it was really during the 1950s and '60s
科学家 工程师和政♥府♥才意识到
that scientists, engineers, and governments recognised
这项新科技对未来发展举足轻重
just how important this new technology was going to be.
我们称之为计算机
These we call computers.
雷蒙德·巴克斯特
英国电视节目主持人和作家
它们可以与那边的设备一样
They can be made as big and complicated as that
既庞大又复杂
installation over there,
也可以和这个一样 虽迷你但同样复杂
or as small but still complicated as that.
这台小小的计算机能进行逻辑运算
And that little computer is capable of logic.
这是一台典型的现代商业计算机
This is a typical, small, modern, commercial computer.
价值约三万五千镑
It cost about ￡35,000,
或者以二十镑每小时的价格租借
or you could hire it for something like ￡20 an hour.
它使用普通的电源插头
It runs off an ordinary mains plug,
并且它能
and it's capable of doing something
每秒进行约一千次计算
like 1,000 calculations every second.
它们不仅仅是昂贵的计算器
These were much more than just fancy adding machines
还能胜任一系列越来越多的工作
and were becoming capable of an ever-increasing array of tasks.
类人机器
科学家们更加频繁地
Scientists use them more and more
使用它们来模拟现实生活中的情景
to simulate real-life situations,
从音乐厅的音响效果到电子电路测试
from the acoustics of a concert hall to electronic circuits.
为研究人类声音的本质
To study the nature of the human voice,
他们设计了一台电脑来自弹自唱
they programmed a computer to sing a song and accompany itself.
*Daisy Daisy*
1961年IBM 704最早使用语♥音♥合成吟唱这首脍炙人口的歌♥曲
歌♥曲Daisy Bell由英国词曲作家哈里·达克于1♥8♥9♥2年所做
*Give me your answer do...*
这是科幻作家大♥师♥阿瑟·C·克拉克
This is the master science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke
他在电影《2001太空漫游》的片场
on the set of the film 2001: A Space Odyssey.
他认为最优秀的科学家
For him, the best scientists
灵感源于经典科幻小说
were those inspired by classic sci-fi.
一流科学家的标志之一
One mark of a first-rate scientist is
就是爱好科幻小说
an interest in science fiction,
相反的 二流科学家
and conversely one mark of a second-rate scientist is
缺少对科幻小说的热情
a lack of interest in science fiction.
科幻小说对于帮助我们
Science-fiction was important
展望未来非常重要
in shaping our visions of the future.
在山姆·莫斯考维奇新泽西纽华克的家中
In the top of his house in Newark, New Jersey, Sam Moskowitz has
收藏着所有以英文出版的
filed away copies of every science-fiction magazine and
地平线
《科幻故事与科学事实》 1985年
科幻杂♥志♥和书籍
book ever published in the English language,
其中大部分他都阅读过
and he's read most of them.
二十世纪的人们用科幻小说这一载体
Science-fiction was an expression of 20th century man's hopes,
表达他们的希望 梦想和渴望
dreams, and aspirations.
大部分的科幻小说都非常劣质
A heavy percentage of science-fiction is merely rubbish.
虫眼怪物 太空战役 诸如此类
Bug eyed monsters, space battles, or something of that nature.
但科幻小说有一个优势
However, science-fiction has one thing in its favour.
一个故事即使在文学上一文不值
That even a story which may be from a literary standpoint
也可能具备预见性
absolute trash may prove very prophetic.
科幻小说界的"乔治·华盛顿"似得人物
The George Washington of science-fiction,
雨果·根斯巴克
the father of science-fiction,
是公认的科幻小说之父
is generally acknowledged to be Hugo Gernsback.
雨果·根斯巴克在1926年4月
Hugo Gernsback published in April 1926
出版了世界上第一本科幻杂♥志♥
the first science-fiction magazine in the history of the world.
叫做《惊奇故事》
It was called Amazing Stories.
任何在这个太空时代能做到的事情
Anything you can think of that is being done today in the space age
我们在杂♥志♥中都多少有描述过
we have done before in some way or another in my magazines.
如果真有神迹出现 有预言家
If by some miracle a prophet could describe the future exactly
亚瑟·查尔斯·克拉克
作家
能够准确预言未来的走向
as it was going to take place,
人们反而会觉得他的预言荒谬绝伦
his predictions would sound so absurd, so far-fetched,
并且对它嗤之以鼻
that everybody would laugh him to scorn.
我们唯一能确定的是
The only thing we can be sure of about the future is
未来一定非常美妙
that it will be absolutely fantastic.
这是一座近未来之城
This is a city of the near future,
它是纽约世博会上
planned by scientists and designers
科学家和设计师为通用汽车展区设计的
for the General Motors exhibit at the World's Fair in New York.
在他们描绘的这个未来 人类将
They see a future where man will be making
更充分利用世上现仍未开♥发♥的资源
fuller use of the world's, at present, untapped resources.
拜科学所赐
The future was a shiny place
未来是一个闪闪发光的
in which anything was possible,
一切皆有可能的梦幻之地
and all thanks to science.
先进的科技将使我们在雨林中畅通无阻
Improved technology will make it possible to penetrate jungles
修路的工具极其高效
and build roads with tools so efficient that,
从用激光束砍倒树木
from tree cutting with a laser beam
到奠定路基
to laying road foundations,
仅需数个小时
will be a matter of only a few short hours
那机器应大略如此
with equipment like this.
在科学家的想象中 这些工具将由
These tools, it was imagined, would be powered by some kind of
想必只差临门一脚
machine intelligence,
就可问世的智能机器控制
which was surely just around the corner.
科幻小说早已成为科学事实
Science-fiction was already becoming science fact.
人们期待已久的发展进程
The development men are always on the lookout.
近日 一款旧瓶装新酒的
Recently, they produced a new version of an old idea.
可视电♥话♥问世
The picture phone.
去年 在三大城市和纽约世博会
And last year, they put it into experimental service between
可视电♥话♥进行了实验性服务测试
three cities and the World's Fair in New York.
-你好 约翰 -你好 肯
- Hello, John. - Hello, Ken.
我想问你有没有看过温特因哈姆的
Say, I was wondering if you had yet seen Winteringham's
帧存储器演示
demonstration of frame storage.
人们期待着科技能够改善一切
Society hoped technology could improve everything,
甚至是这个人的驾驶技术
even this man's driving.
我们正行驶在128号♥公路的其中一段
We're driving along a section of Route 128.
地平线
《128号♥公路》 1966年
我正试着评估
And I'm trying to get an estimate
开过这条特定节段的道路
of the demand made upon a driver
应对驾驶员下达的指令
by this particular section of road.
这是科学乐观主义盛行的时期
It was a time of scientific optimism.
一幅科技乌托邦的画卷正在展开