未来的工作与死亡

Okay, and this machine, you can imagine,
能持续工作
will work continuously.
它不会受伤
It's never gonna get injured,
不会要求报销工伤
never file a workers' compensation claim,
但是它正在进入一个这个产业
and, yet, it's moving into an area
而这个领域 至少到目前为止
that, up until now, at least, we would have said
我们认为这一直是一个完全
is really something that is exclusively
由人力主导的产业
the province of the human worker.
我的意思是
I mean,
这种能力可以根据你所看到的东西
it's this ability to look at something
然后根据你所看到的东西
and then based on what you see,
来操纵你的环境
manipulate your environment.
这是视觉认知与敏捷反应的
It's sort of the confluence
完美结合
of visual perception and dexterity.
在未来10到15年内我们就将
We'll see self-driving cars on the road
运输业
全球岗位数量 超过6千万
在路上看到自动驾驶汽车
within 10 or 15 years.
15年内 我们将探讨
Fifteen years from now, we'll be debating
是否甚至应该允许
whether we should even allow human beings to be
人们走上马路
be on the road at all.
特斯拉说到明年
Tesla says that by next year,
他们的车90%都有自动驾驶功能
that, you know, their cars will be 90 percent automated.
意味着出租车司机
Which means that the jobs of taxi drivers,
卡车司机都要下岗了
truck drivers, goes away.
一瞬间 我们不再需要买♥♥车了
Suddenly, we don't need to own cars anymore.
维韦克 瓦德瓦
学者 企业家
人们并未对这个根本改变做好准备
Humanity isn't ready for such a basic change such as that.
呼叫中心 语♥音♥识别
Call center jobs, voice recognition
目前仍非常复杂
is pretty sophisticated these days.
客户服务
全球岗位数量 逾4千万
你能想象代替许多种
And you can imagine replacing many kinds of,
穆雷·沙纳罕
认知机器人专家 帝国理工学院
那种支持热♥线♥之类的工作
you know, helplines and things.
有家叫IPsoft的公♥司♥
There's a company called "IPsoft" that has created
开♥发♥了一款智能软件系统
an intelligent software system,
一款名为阿米莉亚的自动化系统
an automated system, called "Amelia."
她不仅能听懂你说的话
She can not only understand what you're saying to her,
理解你说的语境
she understands the context of what you're saying,
她还能从自身错误中自我学习
and she can learn from her mistakes.
这可不得了 因为我们将看到
This is a huge deal because what we're going to see
所有客服类岗位
is all of the customer service agent jobs,
如果这套软件成功了
if she is successful, if this software program,
如果这套自动化软件真的成功了
this automated software program is successful,
那所有这类工作都要消失了
we could see all of those jobs go away.
这些软件的使用趋近于边际成本
These things tend to go to marginal cost,
而边际成本是没成本的软件复♥制♥和
and marginal cost is copying software, which is nothing,
成本也许非常低廉的
and running it on a computer
计算机运行
which will probably be very cheap.
医生们在某些情况下拒绝这些软件
Human doctors will be, in some respect, pushed aside
医疗行业
全球岗位数量 逾1亿
因为机器的诊断能力
because machines can do a better job
比他们更胜一筹
of diagnosis than they can.
现在机器会像现在的医生一样有同理心吗
Now will they have the empathy that current doctors do?
我不知道 但至少医生掌握的知识
I don't know, but at least they'll have the knowledge
机器也会掌握 而且更先进
that our doctors do, they'll be more advanced,
所以我能看到在医疗行业存在这种可能
so I can see this option in healthcare.
从经济角度来说机器人同伴
The one that is likely to be the biggest growth area,
也许是发展最快的领域
from an economic standpoint, is the android companions
他们能帮助老年人 因为
to help elderly people, okay, because there's...
你知道 由于将来20至30年内
you know, given the rise in elderly people
老龄化日益严重
over the next 20, 30 years, that it's...
护理行业可能会
and it's unlikely there are gonna be enough people
供不应求
going into the nursing profession
为了照顾老年人 尤其考虑到
to actually serve them, especially if we're thinking
在家庭护理这一方面
in terms of home-based care.
我认为机器人外科医生
The robot surgeon, I think, is something that will happen
在不久将来就会出现
in the not-too-distant future
因为这很大程度上与手工灵活度有关
because a lot of that is to do with manual dexterity
并且具有识别并理解作为一名外科医生
and having the expertise to recognize...
需要如何操作的专业知识
to understand what you're manipulating as a surgeon.
人们需要积累不计其数的专业知识
Terrific amount of expertise for a human to accumulate,
但是我能想象我们能开♥发♥
but I can imagine that we would be able to build
专业机器人外科医生
something that is a specialized robot surgeon
能进行专业手术
that can carry out particular operations
例如前列腺手术
such as a prostate operation.
人们目前就在开♥发♥这种机器人
That's one that people are working on right now,
我相信不久就能
and I think they're nearly there
外科机器人在英国实施首例手术
造出值得信赖的机器人外科医生
of being able to produce
完成这些手术了
a reliable robot surgeon that can do that.
也许你不愿接受这种变化
You might not want to submit yourself to this thing,
但事实上 我觉得我们能造出
you might think, but in fact, I think we'll be able to make
非常可靠的机器人外科医生完成这些工作
a very reliable robot surgeon to do that sort of thing.
金融业
全球岗位数量 超过3千万
我在金融行业看到这一变化
I can see this option in finance
因为金融行业正在迈入数字货币时代
because they're moving to digital currencies.
荷兰银行ING在数字转型时期裁员数千
我们正在经历众筹
And we're now moving to crowdfunding
劳埃德银行裁员9千关闭2百个分支
融♥资♥以及所有其他发展
and crowdbanking and all these other advances.
科技淘汰银行业成千上万前台和后台岗位
我最欣赏的岗位之一就是投行职员
One of my favorites is investment bankers.
现在人工智能已经比人类
Artificial intelligence already does more
完成更多的股市交易
stock market trades today than any human being.
许多决策 诸如贷款和保险
Lots of decisions like decisions about mortgages and insurance,
这些工作
already those things have been,
你知道 大部分已经被程序取代
you know, largely taken over by programs,
比尔盖茨 人们没有意识到软件机器人将取代多少岗位
我认为这一趋势将势不可挡
and I think that kind of trend is only gonna continue.
全球有被替代风险职位总数 超过5亿
人类要学会创造性和社交技能以赢得竞赛 卡尔 弗雷
每当科技变革来临时
Every time there's a technological change,
很多人都会不幸地失业
it will, unfortunately, put a lot of people out of work.
轧棉机的发明就是如此
It happened with the cotton gin.
每一次科技变革来临时都是如此
It's happened with every single technological change.
所以 科技当然会淘汰工作岗位
So, sure, technology destroys jobs,
但也会带来新的岗位
but it creates new ones.
从我们目前的工作时代
Moving from the age of work that we're in now
进入大规模无所不在的自动化时代
into the abundant, ubiquitous automation age,
我们要渡过的
that bridge that we have to cross
是一段非常有趣的时光
is gonna be a very interesting time period.
我想一开始时
I think in the very beginning of that time period,
你会看到自动化取代人力工作
you're going to see automation start to replace jobs,
自动或灭亡
成功的企业能优化人力 机器人与算法这三者的结合
自动或灭亡
但是这些工作会转化成其他工作
but those jobs will transfer into other forms of work.
举个例子 你不用在工厂工作
So, for example, instead of working in a factory,
你需要学习写代码
you will learn to code and you will code the robots
对工厂里的机器人进行编码
that are working in the factory.
当我年轻时 我去寻求职业规划咨♥询♥
When I was a young man and I went for careers advice,
我不知道他们怎么看
I don't know what they would have made of me
我申请一份网♥管♥的工作
asking for a job as a webmaster.
这种工作不存在 那时候没有网络
It didn't exist, there wasn't a web at that time.
现在我们有超过20万个
And, right now, we have over 200,000 vacancies
大数据分♥析♥岗位虚位以待
for people who can analyze big data.
我们真切需要
And we really do need people
过去1年对大数据计算系统分♥析♥师的需求增长了89%
会进行分♥析♥的人才和设备
and mechanisms for analyzing it
从大数据中获得最多的信息
and getting the most information from that data,
未来这一缺口只会有增无减
and that problem is only gonna increase in the future.
麦肯锡预计到2018年美国面临高达19万量化分♥析♥师的缺口
我确信这是许多岗位
And I do think that there's gonna be a lot of employment
趋势所在
moving in that direction.
我们国家的历史表明新发明
The history of our country proves that new inventions
淘汰一个岗位就会创造成千上万个新岗位
create thousands of jobs for every one they displace.
所以不久前你爷爷得到一份更好的工作