未来的工作与死亡

目前生命中最可悲的莫过于科学
聚集知识的速度要快于社会聚集智慧
艾萨克 阿西莫夫
即使我们能改造人类
Even if we can change human beings,
艾萨克 阿西莫夫
生化学家 科幻小说家
我们应该向什么方向改造他们
in what direction do we change them?
我们是以这样的方式改造他们呢 还是那样
Do we want to change them this way or that way?
这里有一个例子
This is an example of the way in which
关于技术进步影响社会学的必定性
technological advance impinges on sociological necessity.
我们需要问自己的是
What we need to ask ourselves is,
我个人控制自己生活
"Where does my individual ability to control my life
或者影响政♥治♥进程的能力在哪
or to influence the political process
与这些新形式的技术有关吗
lie in relation to these new forms of technology?"
政♥府♥和政♥治♥家
Government and politicians
不明白发生了什么
don't understand what's happening.
看吧 他们甚至没意识到变化正在发生
See, they don't even realized this change is happening.
精确预测效果是什么非常困难
It is very difficult, not impossible,
但不是不可能
to predict what the precise effects will be,
在许多情况下 就像其他技术一样
and in many cases, like with other technologies,
我们得接上电源看看
we have to socket and see.
谁曾预言过互联网
Who would have predicted the internet?
我把这件事称为人类2.0
And I talk about this matter as humanity 2.0
因为从某种意义上说
'cause in a sense,
这正是我们前进的方向
this is where we're heading,
就像人类一样成为某种新常态
to some kind of new normal, as it were, of what it is to be a human being.
这不是我们应该忽视或低估的问题
It's not a problem that we should dismiss or underestimate.
它的比例惊人
It's staggering in its proportions.
无知和难以置信同时发生
Ignorance and disbelief at the same time.
人们不相信变化的这么快
People don't believe that change is happening this fast.
这就是问题所在
That's the problem.
工作和死亡的未来
这是一块在地壳中自然形成的石头
This is a stone formed naturally in the Earth's crust
经过数百万年的高温高压
over millions of years through pressure and heat.
它是在坦桑尼亚的奥杜威峡谷发现的
It was discovered in the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania.
约公元前250万年
Dated around 2.5 million years BC,
它可以说是最早的关于技术的例子之一
it is arguably one of the first examples of technology.
石器被我们最早的祖先之一的能人
Stone tools were first adapted for the use of cutting,
作为切割刮削或敲打的材料
scraping, or pounding materials by Homo habilis, one of our earliest ancestors.
一百多万年后
Over one million years later,
人类获得了在所有
mankind made one of the most significant
技术发现中最重要的一项
of all technological discoveries...
火
Fire.
控制火的能力
The ability to control fire
是人类进化的转折点
was a turning point for human evolution.
它让我们保持温暖
It kept us warm
让我们能在黑暗中看到
allowed us to see in the dark
让我们能烹饪食物
and allowed us to cook food,
许多科学家认为这是对心智的提升
which many scientists believe was a huge contributor
的一个巨大贡献
to the ascent of mind.
每个时代 每个帝国 都带来了
Each age, each empire, has brought with it
许多发现和发明创造
the discovery and invention of numerous technologies
每个都以各自的方式重新定义人类的生活
each in their own way redesigning human life...
一直指引我们到现代社会
...leading us to now... ...modern-day society.
我们现在比以往更先进 更紧密
We're now more advanced, connected, knowledgeable,
更博学而且更能抵抗疾病
and resistant to disease than ever before,
这完全归功于
and it is all due to our ability
为了最大限度地提高效率
to apply scientific knowledge for practical purposes
技术
名词
科学知识为实践目的的应用
我们将科学知识应用于实践的能力
in a bid to maximize efficiency.
就像石头让我们走上了变革的道路
Just as the stone set us on a path of transformation,
未来的技术
the technologies of the future
可能会带来一种范式转移
may bring with them a paradigm shift,
改变人类经历的两个主要特征
changing two major features of the human experience.
定义了我们生活的两件事
Two things that have defined our lives
只要我们能记住
for as long as we can remember.
有两件我们日常做的但并非出于自愿的事
Two things that have always been involuntary constants:
一是用我们大好时光来换取生计
trading our time for sustenance
二是因为衰老而失去大好时光
and losing that time through senescence.
第一部分
用你的时间来换取生计 工作
全世界73亿人口中 31亿被雇佣
平均每人每周工作40小时 工作45年
技术将改变这一切
工业革命有效地将人类
The Industrial Revolution effectively freed man
从一个负重的野兽中解放出来
from being a beast of burden.
计算机革命同样会将人类
The computer revolution will similarly free him
从单调重复的日常生活中解放出来
from dull, repetitive routine.
然而 计算机革命
The computer revolution is, however,
也许比哥白尼或者达尔文带来的革命更好
perhaps better compared with the Copernican or the Darwinian Revolution,
要知道 这两个革命当时都极大地改变了
both of which greatly changed man's idea of himself
人们对自身以及他所生活世界的看法
and the world in which he lives.
在60年的时间里 我们登上了月球
In the space of 60 years, we have landed on the moon,
看到了计算能力的提升
seen the rise of computing power,
移♥动♥电♥话♥
mobile phones,
互联网的爆♥炸♥
the explosion of the internet,
和人类基因组测序
and we have sequenced the human genome.
我们实现了载人飞船往返登月时
We took man to the moon and back
用的是4千字节的内存
with four kilobytes of memory.
而现在你口袋里的手♥机♥至少
The phone in your pocket is at least 250,000 times
比这强大25万倍
more powerful than that.
我们越来越少花钱多办事
We are ever-increasingly doing more with less.
从这场技术革命中诞生的事情之一
One of the things that has been born out of this technological revolution
是用更高效的机器
is the ability to replace human workers
替代人类工人的能力
with more efficient machines.
这主要是由于我们提高
This is largely due to the speed
我们的技术能力的速度
at which we are advancing our technological capabilities.
信息技术以指数级数增长
Information technology grows in an exponential manner.
拉伊 科兹维尔
不是线性的
It's not linear.
但我们的直觉是线性的
And our intuition is linear.
一千年前 当我们穿过大草原时
When we walked through the savanna
我们线性预测
a thousand years ago, we made linear predictions
哪只动物会在哪里 而且运作得很好
where that animal would be and that worked fine.
它是我们大脑中与生俱来的
It's hardwired in our brains,
但是指数级增长的步伐
but the pace of exponential growth
其实是信息技术所描绘的
is really what describes information technologies,
这还不止是计算
and it's not just computation.
线性和指数增长非常不同
There's a big difference between linear and exponential growth.
如果我线性走30步
If I take 30 steps linearly,
一 二 三 四 五
one, two, three, four, five
我会得到30
I get to 30.
而如果我以指数方式走30步
If I take 30 steps exponentially,
二 四 八 十六 我会得到十亿
two, four, eight, sixteen, I get to a billion.
这非常不一样
It makes a huge difference.
这才真的是信息技术所描绘的
And that really describes information technology.
当我在麻省理工学院上学的时候
When I was a student at MIT,
我们共用一台电脑 它占了整栋楼
we all shared one computer, it took up a whole building.
今天你手♥机♥里的计算机
The computer in your cell phone today
不但便宜百万倍的 小百万倍的
is a million times cheaper, a million times smaller,
而且强大了一千倍
a thousand times more powerful.
每美元的生产力提升了十亿倍
That's a billionfold increase in capability per dollar
这正是从我是一名学生以来
that we've actually experienced
我们所经历的
since I was a student,
而且这一切在接下来的25年里会重演
and we're gonna do it again in the next 25 years.
目前 几乎每天
Currently, on an almost daily basis,
新的算法 程序
new algorithms, programs,
以及机械工程方面的壮举
and feats in mechanical engineering
在可靠性 成本效益上
are getting closer and closer to being a reliable
越来越成为一个对人工的替代品
and more cost-effective alternative to a human worker.
这个过程称为自动化
This process is known as automation.
制♥造♥
质检
组装
测试
包装
马丁 福特
企业家 《机器人崛起》作者
你知道 这不仅仅是
This is not just about,