前提（2021）

Thank you for the work you do.
当然，我想你已经认出盖尔·特鲁斯代尔了
And; of course; you'll recognize Gail Truesdale.
大使
Ambassador.
特洛伊是我们董事会最年轻的成员
Troy is the youngest member of our board;
前菲尔兹奖得主
a former Fields Medal winner.
0,0,
这奖是颁发给...
That's a prize given out to‐‐
这一代最有天赋的统计分♥析♥师的
The most gifted statistical analyst of his generation.
我很了解，特洛伊，或者我该称呼你为奥德米尔博士
I'm well aware; Troy; or if I may; Dr. Ozdemir.
最后是马库斯·金融家·史蒂文
Last but not least is Marcus 'The Moneyman' Stevens
负责我们的新兴投资机构
representing our emerging investments arm.
超级兴奋
Excited and pumped.
马库斯，我们所有人都是了
All of us; Marcus; all of us are very excited and pumped.
伊莱
Eli.
我是来展示一个肛♥门♥塞
I'm here to present a butt plug.
来吧，可以笑了
Come on. Laugh.
肛♥门♥塞诶
Butt plug.
来吧，这很好笑
Come on; it's funny.
听听这些字放在一起就够好笑了
And; those are funny words.
我一个陌生人来到这里
It's funny that I'm here; a stranger;
一个无名小卒站在你们面前说
a total nobody standing in front of all of you saying;
“我是来展示一个肛♥门♥塞”的
I'm here to present a butt plug;
还不够好笑吗？
right?
来吧，都诚实一点，但我们听到“肛♥门♥塞”的时候
Come on; let's be honest; when we hear a butt plug;
都会认为这是一个粗俗的笑话
we assume it's a crude punch line to a cruder joke or a‐‐
或者是一次廉价体验中的
cheap accessory to a‐‐
廉价配件
cheaper experience.
但就今天为止了
That ends today.
你如何找到其中最大的价值？
How do you find the most value?
你要去寻找最被低估的东西
You search for that which is the most undervalued.
这是一位当代伟大的金融思想家说的
One of the great financial thinkers of our time said that.
事实上，这个思想家现在就在办公室
In fact; that thinker happens to be in this room right now.
但我想先带你们踏上我的旅程
But; I want to take you on my journey in finding value
在被低估中寻找价值
in the undervalued today.
如今，性玩具产业每年创造500亿美元的产值
Now; the sex toy industry; is a $50 billion a year industry
并且过去5年中以每年近25%的速度在增长
growing at nearly 25% a year for the last 5 years.
现在，马库斯就能第一个告诉你们
Now; as Marcus will be the first to tell you;
这数字足以激励
those numbers are enough to motivate
世界上几乎任何一家公♥司♥
just about any company in the world;
但这不是这家公♥司♥的理念
but that's not this company's philosophy.
遵循这个魔法，财富就会随之而来
Follow the magic and the math will follow.
这世界，从我和丹尼尔还是孩子起，就已经改变了
The world; since Daniel and I were children; has changed.
我们这个时代鼓舞人心的故事
And; the inspiring story of our time is
是我们正在经历的变革
the revolution we're living through
以及我们对亲密关系和认同体系的态度
and our approaches to intimacy and identity.
人们一旦被边缘化
Once marginalized;
他们的取向和身份认同感就会在
orientations and identities are rapidly fighting
他们所定义的更具包容性的社会中
for representation and respect in a more
迅速争取代表权和尊重
inclusive society they're defining.
随着一度被轻视和贬低的性行为
With that sexual practices once trivialized and diminished;
伴着看似无害的嘲弄和玩笑
with even harmless‐seeming mockery and jokes;
从阴影中走到社会阳光下
move from the shadows into the sunlight of society.
才给我们留下了这些伟大的故事
So; that leaves us with a great story;
尽管我对查尔斯的基金会很尊重
but with all due respect to the foundation Charles runs;
但也知道你们并不是慈善家
you guys aren't a charity‐‐
有着辉煌的过去
and a great past but‐‐
但你们没有时间机器
you guys don't have a time machine.
你们的确没有吧？
You don't; do you?
所以你们想了解的是未来
No; what you want to know about is the future.
现在，当我们看到这条增长抛物线
Now; when we've seen this growth parabola and
和与文化变迁相对应的产业时
comparable industries that develop in tandem with
一个迷人的共同点出现了
a cultural shift; there's a fascinating commonality.
无论是信息技术还是高端咖啡
Whether it's computing or high‐end coffee;
能处于文化变迁中心
a product at the center of a cultural shift reaches
是因为精确达到了我们今天的需求
the exact point we're at today when an object;
当一个物品，一个单一的物品出现
a singular object emerges that hits the nexus between
能同时触及精英阶级和普罗大众时
elite status and mass appeal and powers the leap from
就完成了从文化独特性到文化普遍性的飞跃
cultural uniqueness to cultural ubiquity.
当咖啡发展到二十世纪九十年代时，星巴克杯出现了
With coffee in the 1990s; it was the Starbucks cup.
当信息技术发展到二十一世纪时，iPhone出现了
With computing in the 2000s; it was the iPhone.
当一个行业都是围绕某个单一物品而联接起来时
This point of no return is when an industry coalesces around
就不可能再分到一杯羹了
its DSO; its dominant singular object.
你是从哪里得到这些...
Where are you getting this‐‐
这些分♥析♥理论？
This theory of analysis?
这是我自己想的
This is my original analysis.
它现在是专有的，但如果我们有幸能一起工作
It's proprietary; but I'd be more than honored
我将非常荣幸地与您分享它
to share it with you if we work together and
并将其应用于各种现象
apply it to all sorts of phenomenon.
但是
But um...
还是回到重点
Back to the bottom line‐‐
如果你可以的话
if you will‐‐
那这个行业里的决定性物品是什么呢？
What will be that object in this industry?
哈佛医学院性行为研究中心
The Harvard Medical School Center for Study of
对每一种性别、性征认同
Sexual Practices conducted studies on every
都进行了研究
sexual and gender identity.
我获得了研究员许可去拜访他们
I obtained a researcher pass to visit them and
进而了解他们的研究成果
see what they learned.
他们的结论很明显
Their conclusion was the obvious.
身体结构中有一处的性敏感程度
There is one anatomical point with a far higher incidence
远高于其他部位
of sexual responsiveness across all human beings than any other.
请注意，不是更敏感
Not more sensitivity; mind you;
而是特别敏感
but more universally reported sensitivity by a mile.
为什么这数字这么高？
Why are the numbers so high?
因为它是每个人身体的一部分
Because it's a body part virtually every human being has.
所以
So;
我们建立了这一目标潜在主导的普遍性
we've established the potentially dominant
以回应某种文化变迁
universality of this object in response to one cultural shift:
就是性征与性向认同
sexual and gender identity.
而我们正在经历的第二个变迁是
But; there's a second shift we're experiencing:
亲密的本质
the nature of intimacy.
自我认同的人们中有两类亲密状态的增长最为迅速
The two fastest‐growing intimacy statuses with which people
一种是喜欢独处
self‐identify are; one; people who are solitary by preference;
另一种是处于
and two; people in a relationship in which
异地恋状态
another partner is not physically present.
我现在展示的的这个产品
Now; the object I'm presenting today is not only an object
不仅是适用于所有人群
with near‐identical responses across all sexual and
也适用于
gender identities; it's also an object with near‐identical
所有的关系体系
responses across all intimacy identities.
也就包括了处于亲密关系中的
That means; in intimate partnerships as well as
或者没有伴侣的
those without partners or
以及没有伴侣在身边的情况
without partners physically present.
而特洛伊，你不需要精通数学也能知道
And Troy; you don't need a Fields Medal to know that when
当你同时覆盖两条增长曲线时，那弧度将不是翻倍
you overlay two growth curves; the curves don't double;
而是
they grow‐
指数增长
Exponentially.
而这就将是在一个每年500亿美元的行业里占据主导地位的产品
But that's just the dominance of a $50 billion a year industry.
为什么我们不做呢？
Why quit there?
停
Stop.
停一下
Stop.
我需要休息
I need a break.
这就是他吗？
This is him?
他就是个疯子
He is a madman.
这可爱
‐ Oh; adorable. ‐ Yeah.
现在我们已经确认了这款产品
So; we've established the potential of this object
有驾驭文化浪潮的潜力了
to ride this cultural wave;
是吗？但是
Right? But‐‐
它要怎样才能做到更重要的事呢？
How could it do something more important?
又要怎么样才能和这股巨浪一起汹涌呢？
How could it expand the wave all together?
让我从一个你可能觉得有趣的例子开始
Let me start with an example you might find amusing.
按♥摩♥棒♥是一项每年创造30亿美元的业务
Vibrators are a $3 billion a year business.
是还不赖
Not bad.Not bad.