大空头

你懂我 鲍勃 成交吗
You understand perfectly, Bob. You want the deal?
行 我没问题
That's cool. That's all right with me.
荣幸之至
Pleasure.
别这样 停 停
Don't do that. Stop. Stop.
-别扭了 -查理
- Stop that. - Charlie.
别扭了 停
Stop it! Stop.
怎么了
What?
你们知道你们刚才做了什么吗
Do you have any idea what you just did?
当然 我们刚才做了这辈子最大的生意
Come on. We just made the deal of our lifetimes!
我们应该庆祝一下
We should celebrate.
你们刚才是在跟美国经济对赌
You just bet against the American economy.
没错 我们赌了
Fuck, yeah, we did!
也就是说
Which means...
也就是说要是我们对了
Which means if we're right...
要是我们对了 人们会无家可归
If we're right, people lose homes.
人们会失去工作
People lose jobs.
人们会失去退休存款
People lose retirement savings.
人们会失去养老金
People lose pensions.
你们知道我最讨厌银行业的是什么吗
You know what I hate about fucking banking?
它把人变成了数字 这里有个数字
It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number.
失业率每上升1%
Every 1% unemployment goes up,
就有4万人死亡 你知道吗
40,000 people die. Did you know that?
-不知道 -你知道吗
- No. - Did you know that?
不 我不知道
No, I didn't know that.
我们只是很兴奋
We were just excited.
别他妈再跳舞了
Just don't fucking dance.
-好吧 -你要去哪儿
- All right. - Where are you going?
刚才真是吓坏宝宝了
Whoa, I just got really scared.
首先 今天表现不错
First of all, great show today.
-你太出色了 -谢谢啊
- You were terrific. - Thank you.
你的大嘴就是关不牢啊
Your big mouth was a revelation.
谢谢你的夸奖
I appreciate that.
你担心你和你的掉期会被耍是吗
You worried you and your swaps are getting played?
这次你有机会
Well, this is an opportunity
认识你的赌局对手了
for you to meet who you're betting against.
尽量别太正义 听着点
Try not to get too righteous and listen a little.
好吧 这位是谁
Okay, fine. Who is this guy?
一个十足的混♥蛋♥
A real solid-gold asshole.
我是个债务担♥保♥经理
I'm a CDO manager.
债务担♥保♥经理
A "CDO manager"?
在哈丁顾问公♥司♥工作
Yeah, at Harding Advisors.
我不知道债务担♥保♥还要人管呢
I didn't realize that there was anything to manage with CDOs.
是吗
Oh.
我们选择加入债务担♥保♥组合的有价证券
We select the securities that go into the CDO portfolio
同时监控这些资产
and monitor the assets.
美林证券公♥司♥的债务担♥保♥多由我负责
I do most of Merrill Lynch's CDOs.
你代表投资人还是美林证券
Do you represent the investors or Merrill Lynch?
投资人
The investors.
是吗
You do.
-没错 -可是
- Yeah. - But...
你若不把美林证券的债券放进你的债务担♥保♥里
Merrill Lynch isn't gonna send you any customers
美林就不会给你任何客户
unless you put Merrill Lynch's bonds in your CDO.
好问题 我们这么说吧
Good question. Let's just say Merrill and I have, um...
我和美林关系不错
We have a good relationship.
你跟美林证券关系不错
You have a good relationship with Merrill Lynch.
我们合作很久了
We've been doing business together for a long time.
所以你发行的债务担♥保♥
And so the CDOs that you create
是质量最好价值最高的
are of the highest quality and the highest value.
-绝对的 -绝对的
- Absolutely. Yep. - Absolutely.
你们关心不断上升的信用违约率吗
Are you at all concerned about the rising default rates?
我相信这些产品没有风险 马克
I assume no risk for these products myself, Mark.
好
Okay.
我们再说直白一些 银行找你
So let me get this straight. The bank calls you up.
他们给你他们想卖♥♥的债券
They give you the bonds they want to sell.
他们给你客户
They give you clients,
他们给你钱经营你的生意
they give you money to run your business.
给你丰厚的报酬
Give you fat fees for doing so.
可你代表的是投资人
But you represent the investors?
是这样的吗
Is that right?
没错
Yeah.
可我们现在不在美林证券的大楼里
But we're not in the Merrill Lynch building.
-好 那你在哪儿 -我们在新泽西
- Okay. Where are you? - We're in New Jersey.
只有20分钟的距离
You're 20 minutes away.
要是坐直升机就只有5分钟
Well, five if you use a helicopter.
这很可笑吗
That's funny, huh?
可笑至极
That's hilarious.
天哪
Oh, boy.
你老板要炸了
Your boss is about to explode.
不 他好奇心太强 炸不了
No, he's too curious to explode.
等等 再说一遍
Hold on. Say that again.
债务担♥保♥A包含B的一部分
CDO "A" Has parts of CDO "B".
但是B又包含A的一部分
And CDO "B" Has parts of CDO "A".
而它们又被放进了C里
But then they both get put inside CDO "C".
对 那叫债务担♥保♥的平方
Yeah, that one's called CDO squared.
债务担♥保♥的担♥保♥
A CDO of a CDO.
明白吗
All right?
还有一种债务担♥保♥
And then there's CDOs made up of the opposite side
赌的是你和你掉期交易的输赢
of the bet you made with your swaps.
我们叫综合性债务担♥保♥
We call them synthetic CDOs.
你说什么 综合性债务担♥保♥
What did you say? Synthetic CDOs.
这太他妈疯狂了
That is fucking crazy.
不疯狂 相反 它超厉害
It's not. It's awesome.
他要怒了
His face is starting to boil.
他看起来像《沙丘》里的那个坏人
He looks like the bad guy from Dune.
好吧 假如
All right, let's say
你有一个次贷池 里面有5000万美元
you have a pool of $50 million in subprime loans.
你的综合债务担♥保♥和掉期交易
How much money could be out there betting on it,
押了多少钱在上面
in your synthetic CDOs and swaps
现在 就在今晚
right now, tonight?
我想想 5000万美元
Let's see, $50 million... Hmm...
1亿美元
A billion dollars.
什么
What?
要是迈克尔·柏利发现的
If the mortgage bonds that
房♥贷债券是火柴
Michael Burry discovered were the match...
担♥保♥房♥贷债券的市场
How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds
要比实际房♥贷大多少
than actual mortgages?
大约20倍
About 20 times.
要是房♥贷债券是火柴
If the mortgage bonds were the match
债务担♥保♥是吸饱煤油的抹布
and the CDOs were the kerosene-soaked rags,
综合性债务担♥保♥就是喝醉了的
then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb
总统手里握着的原♥子♥弹♥
with the drunk President holding his finger over the button.
就在那一刻 在那个失了声的饭馆
It was at that moment in that dumb restaurant
马克·鲍姆脸上一副痴呆的表情
with that stupid look on his face that Mark Baum realized
意识到整个世界的经济要崩溃了
that the whole world economy might collapse.
我知道你在想什么
And I know what you're thinking.
综合债务担♥保♥是个什么鬼玩意
"What the fuck is a synthetic CDO?"
让行为经济学之父理查德·泰勒博士
Well, here's Dr. Richard Thaler, father of behavioral economics
和赛琳娜·戈麦斯来给你解释
and Selena Gomez to explain.
国际歌♥星
好 综合债务担♥保♥原理是这样的
Okay. So here's how a synthetic CDO works.
假如我在一局21点中赌1000万美元
Let's say I bet $10 million on a blackjack hand.
1000万美元是因为这一局代表
$10 million because this hand is meant to represent
一个房♥贷债券
a single mortgage bond.
赛琳娜的这手牌很好 明牌18点
Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here, showing 18.
庄家明牌是7点
Dealer showing seven.
赛琳娜这手牌真的很好
That's a really good hand for Selena.
胜算很大 实际上
Good odds. In fact,
她有87%的概率能赢这局
her chances of winning this hand are 87%.
因此 我的胜算很大 我连赢了好几局
So, my odds are good. I'm on a winning streak.
这里的每个人都跃跃欲试
Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action.
我怎么会输呢 对吗