金钱无用：深入美联储（2013）

美元是最显著的成就
The dollar is the most remarkable achievement
在货币的历史上。想一想,
in the history of money. Think of it,
这张纸的生产成本为零，
this piece of paper costs nothing to produce,
这背后除了本·s·伯南克的善意
there's nothing behind it except the goodwill of Ben S. Bernanke,
让我们不要忘记美国国会。
and let us not forget the US Congress.
这张纸……
This piece of paper...
仍然需要价值和尊重。
somehow still commands value and respect.
美元怎么可能是什么呢
How can the dollar be anything
除了世界上最伟大的货币品牌，
except the world's greatest monetary brand,
金钱的可口可乐?好吧，你就看着吧。
the Coca-Cola of money? Well, you just watch.
自1971年以来,
Since 1971,
美元和全球金融体系
the US dollar and the global financial system
完全建立在信仰之上
have been based solely upon faith,
对货币守护者的信任
faith in the guardian of that currency
和该系统:
and of that system:
美国的中♥央♥银行，美联储。
the American central bank, the Federal Reserve.
作为世界储备货币，
As the world's reserve currency,
美元是我们衡量时间的标尺，
the US dollar is how we measure our time,
我们的产品，我们的自我价值。
our products, our self-worth.
我们的制度建立在信任和信心的基础上，
Ours is a system based on trust and confidence,
这两者在2007年秋天开始消失。
both of which began to disappear in the fall of 2007.
急剧下降的利率帮助引发了房♥地♥产♥繁荣，
Plunging interest rates helped trigger the housing boom,
但随着利率回升，
but with interest rates climbing back,
许多房♥主都很难支付他们的抵押贷款。
many homeowners are having a hard time paying their mortgages.
一千四百万人
Fourteen-million people
在过去三年里还了抵押贷款。
took a mortgage in the last three years.
其中700万人将失去家园。
Seven million of them will lose their homes.
这是疯狂的。
This is crazy.
美联储认为这是个小问题。
The Fed thought that this was a small problem.
当人们第一次谈论这场危机时，
When the crisis was first talked about,
这是次贷问题。
this was a subprime-mortgage problem.
它一直在增长，增长，增长。
And it just kept growing and growing and growing.
贝尔斯登拆散了一些大赌注
Bear Stearns unravelling some big bets
抵押贷款出现了问题。
on mortgages that have gone awry.
政♥府♥官员争先恐后地防止崩溃
Government officials scrambling to prevent the collapse
投资银行巨头雷曼兄弟。
of the giant investment bank Lehman Brothers.
美国国际集团正在寻求
American International Group is seeking
来自美联储的140亿美元过渡性贷款。
a $14 billion bridging loan from the Federal Reserve.
我们对银行进行了电子化操作。
We were having an electronic run on the banks.
美联储的估计
The Federal Reserve's estimation
这5。5万亿美元会被抽走吗
was that $5.5 trillion would have been drawn
在美国的货币市场体系之外，
out of the money-market system of the United States,
就会导致整个经济崩溃
would've collapsed the entire economy,
在24小时内，
and within 24 hours,
世界经济就会崩溃。
the world economy would've collapsed.
这将是我们经济体系的终结
It would've been the end of our economic system
正如我们所知。
as we know it.
国会不能及时采取行动。
Congress could not act in a timely way.
因此，美联储觉得这很重要
Therefore the Fed felt like it was important
为了稳定经济，我们这样做。
to stabilise the economy, that we do it.
这不是央行的正常角色，
That is not the normal role for a central bank,
也不应该是这样。
nor should it be.
在政客们辩论的时候，美联储采取了行动。
While politicians debated, the Fed acted.
它利用了自己的政♥治♥独♥立♥和无限的权力
It used its political independence and unlimited power
创造货币，提供数万亿美元的贷款
to create money to provide trillions of dollars in loans
对各种公♥司♥来说，
to corporations of all kinds,
使国会随后的援助相形见绌。
dwarfing the Congressional aid that followed.
大街上的人们和大多数政客
What people on Main Street and most politicians
不明白的是，如果我们不做点什么，
didn't understand is that if we didn't do something,
通用电气，伯克希尔哈撒韦，
General Electric, Berkshire Hathaway,
通用汽车，花旗集团，
General Motors, Citigroup would've pulled down,
美国银行。
Bank of America.
我的意思是，我们来到了深渊的边缘，我们看了看，
I mean, we came to the brink of the abyss and we looked over,
这是很长的一段路。
and it was a long way down.
美联储确实不得不介入。
The Fed really did have to step in.
这就是美联储1913年成立的原因:
And this is why the Fed was set up in 1913:
为整个金融系统提供流动性
to provide liquidity to the financial system as a whole
当你有金融恐慌的时候。
at a time when you have a financial panic.
你对美联储了解多少?
What do you know about the Federal Reserve?
并不多。
Not much.
人们有这样的看法
There is this perception that people have
美联储就是这样一个黑盒子。
that the Fed is this kind of black box.
没有人能完全理解。
Nobody quite understands it.
处理货币问题?我不知道。
Take care of currency? I don't know.
在那里……一些关于钱?
Where... something about money?
他们以某种方式调节了股票市场。
They somehow regulate the stock market.
我认为我们对人们来说很神秘。
I think we're mysterious to people.
我想他们不确定我们在做什么。
I think they're not sure what we do.
听起来好像他们在印钞票。ν。
Sounds like they're printing money. Nu.
有一种说法是我们在做什么
One myth that's out there is that what we're doing
是印钞。我们没有印钱。
is printing money. We're not printing money.
那是美联储正在花费的税金吗?
Is that tax money that the Fed is spending?
这不是税款。
It's not tax money.
这更像是印钱而不是借钱。
It's much more akin to printing money than borrowing.
-你一直在印钞票。——好吧,有效。
- You've been printing money. - Well, effectively.
美联储的工作到底是什么?
What exactly is the Fed's job?
它确实控制着货币供应，
It does control the money supply,
设定利率，监管银行，
set interest rates, regulate banks,
并被认为是确保安全和可靠的
and is supposed to ensure the safety and soundness
对金融体系的影响。
of the financial system.
美联储应该是金融稳定的守护者，
The Fed is supposed to be the guardian of financial stability,
防止市场混乱。
preventing chaos in markets.
通常情况下，它可以这样做。
Now, usually it can do that.
在2008年夏天，它不能这样做，
In the summer of 2008, it couldn't do that,
我们确实陷入了混乱。
and we did get chaos.
但到底是什么导致了这场危机呢?
But what caused the crisis in the first place?
是什么让这个历史上最富有的国家崩溃?
What brought the wealthiest nation in history to its knees?
根据许多经济学家和美联储高级官员的说法，
According to many economists and senior Fed officials,
处于风暴中心的正是美联储自己。
it was the Fed itself at the eye of the storm.
我把我的想法记录在案
I'm on record as saying that I thought
美联储将利率维持在过低水平的时间过长。
the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long.
这导致了房♥价泡沫。
That contributed to the bubble in housing prices.
这在当时是被警告的。
This was warned about at the time.
这是教科书上讲的，当利率这么低时，
This was textbook, when you take rates that low,
你将会有一个繁荣，而萧条很可能紧随其后。
you're going to have a boom, and a bust is likely to follow.
美联储未能阻止房♥地♥产♥泡沫，
The Fed failed to prevent the housing bubble,
掠夺性贷款丑闻，
the predatory lending scandal,
也没能阻止金融危机的发生。
and utterly failed to prevent the financial crisis.
所以我们没有进行监管
So we failed to regulate
我们金融体系最重要的部分。
the most important part of our financial system.
我不认为我们中有人在美联储工作过
And I don't think any of us who've ever worked at the Fed
只要有人把事情搞砸了，就可以安慰自己了。
take any comfort from the fact that somebody screwed up.
但我认为我们认识到这一点很重要
But I think it's important we recognise
他们犯了一些大错误。
there were some big mistakes made.
难道联邦储备系统失败了吗?
Didn't the Federal Reserve System fail?
我知道我的时间已经不多了
I know my time has run out,
但我从根本上不同意
but I really fundamentally disagree
和你的观点一致。
with your point of view.
我认为这是一种自然的倾向
And I think there is a natural inclination
事物是固定的，但事物不是固定的。
that things are fixed, but things are not fixed.
每个人都想回去说:“现在一切都好了。”
Everybody wants to go back and say, "Things are fine now.
我们解决了我们的问题。”
Look, we solved our problem."
我们只是在要求另一场危机。
We're just asking for another crisis.
这是一个实验。我们从来没有做过
This is an experiment. We've never done
这之前，我们从来没有到过这里。
this before, we've never been here before.
美联储真的在运作
The Federal Reserve is really operating
凭他们的裤子。
by the seat of their pants.
另一方面，这些人都是聪明人，
Now, the other side of that is that these are smart people,
勤劳的人
hard-working people
他们努力做到最好。
who are trying to do the best that they can.