BBC.地平线.2012.全球怪象

更挽救了无数的生命
it also saved countless lives.
在未来新的气候条件下
And getting an accurate reliable forecast
获得准确的预报尤为重要
is vital in our new weather future,
因为我们期望预测能让我们预防
because the hope is prediction will lead to protection.
天气预报的意义
The point of the weather forecast,
如果你去看它的本质的话
when you get down to the nitty-gritty,
是将一些极端天气条件
is getting extreme weather events
比如说大雨 高温
heavy rainfall, high temperatures
提前准确地预报
the forecasts for those spot-on
人们能提前足够的时间得到正确的警示
so people can get correct warnings in the right timescales
如果需要 就能采取预防措施
so they can take precautions to save themselves, if they need to.
这些年预报员
And the one thing forecasters
一直想要提高的就是
have managed to improve over the years
预报的准确性
is the accuracy of the forecast.
现在的五日预报
The five-day forecast is now as
跟三十年前的一日预报一样准确
accurate as the one-day forecast was 30 years ago.
将来极端气候将占据多数
That could be vital in a future
预报的准确性至关重要
predicted to be dominated by extreme weather events.
促成这种准确性的科技
The technological development that's driven the improved accuracy forecast
漂浮在数千里的高空
floats thousands of miles above us.
卫星
Satellites.
借助卫星我们能获取更多的信息
We've got so much more information because of all the satellites.
你需要知道全球都在发生什么变化
We know you need to know what's going on globally to get a good forecast
才能更好预测英国未来五日的天气情况
of what's going to happen in the UK for the next five days.
没有全球范围的数据就不能预报
You can't do it without global coverage.
卫星给了我们全球的数据
Satellites have given us that global coverage.
卫星提供了大量信息
Satellites provide huge amounts of information
告诉了我们世界最极端天气
about the world's most extreme weather events.
但要处理这些信息
But making sense of them...
需要这个东西
requires one of these.
这是英国气象局的巨型计算机
This is the Met Office's computer behemoth.
三年前才投入使用
It only came online three years ago.
每秒可计算100万亿次
It can do 100 trillion calculations a second.
相当于十万台个人电脑的计算能力
That's the equivalent of 100,000 PCs.
这使它成为世界上最大的计算机之一
It makes it one of the biggest number crunchers in the world.'
我们需要这种能力
We need that power.
不仅因为每天超级计算机
Not only because we've got millions of observations
都会获得上百万的观测数据
coming into the super computer every day.
也在试图计算出
It's also trying to calculate what the
在五天或者更长时间里
weather's going to be like on that grid
全球范围的天气变化
all the way around the globe up to five days ahead and beyond.
因为我们采用同样的模型 预报每日天气
Because we use the same model that we do our day-to-day forecasts on
以及百年后的气候
for our climate forecasts hundreds of years into the future.
面对即将到来的全球极端天气
And that computing power could be a vital weapon
这种计算能力是非常重要的武器
in the coming struggle with global weather extremes.
这使英国气象局
Allowing the Met Office
有能力去开♥发♥新的天气预报
to develop new kinds of weather forecasts.
气候科学发展的新方向
The big new idea in climate science
不仅是可以预测一百年以后的情况
is not just to look at the distant future 100 years ahead.
那很重要 可以告知我们可能面临的情况
That's very important. It tells us what road we're on.
但是在短期内
But in the near term,
在几年或者几个月可预计的时间里
on planning timescales years or months ahead,
当人们真正需要做出决定时
when people make real decisions,
最重要的是去提高
the big thing is to increase
这间时期内的预测精确度
the skill of the forecast on those timescales.
可能提前几周或几个月
Maybe give some warning
预报出即将出现的极端天气
weeks or months ahead of impending extremes.
也许甚至是史无前例的极端天气
Perhaps even unprecedented extremes.
这才是我们努力要做的事
That's what we're trying to do.
极端天气这门新科学
The new science of weather extremes
强调了我们的生活方式
highlights the profound links between our climate
与气候之间的深远关系
and the way we live.
同时也强调了我们的文明是多么脆弱
It also underlines just how vulnerable our civilisation is.
我们是在与气候玩一场危险的游戏
We're playing a kind of dangerous game with the climate.
过去的七千或八千年中
The last 7,000 or 8,000 years
气候出奇的稳定
has been a remarkably stable climate.
这在过去两百万年的气候史中
Very unusual in the last two million years
非常罕见
of Earth's climate history.
正是在这一时期 人类文明得以发展
It was during that time that human civilisation developed.
所以我们必须知道
So we should be clear about something.
气候变化 无论是自然现象还是人为
Climate change, whether it's natural or we're doing it,
对地球本身是没有危险的
is no danger to the planet.
地球经历过更糟糕的时期
The planet will be fine. The planet has gone through much worse.
危险是对我们而言的
The danger is to us.
我们的文明在一个
Our civilisation developed
气候异常稳定期发展
in a very unusually stable climate,
而且我们已经适应了这种气候
and it's very well adapted to that climate.
我们改变气候 不论是自然还是人为
We change it - again, whether the change is natural or man-made -
都会造成人类文明的脱节和问题
it's going to cause dislocations and problems.
无论我们如何应对全球极端天气
However we choose to deal with global weather extremes,
采取防护或者提♥前♥预♥测♥ 有一件事是明确的
be it protection or prediction, one thing is clear -
世界已经发生了变化
the world has changed.
我们不能再用过去的经验预测未来
The past is no longer a guide to the future.
现在的气候与三十年前
Our climate the average conditions that we grew up with,
我们长大时的已经不一样了
it's not the same now as 30 years ago.
曾经难得一见的极端天气
Events that used to be random and extreme
现在变得更加频繁和剧烈
are becoming more frequent and more severe.
我们今后要面对的世界
We're gonna be living in a different world
将与小时候的大不相同
than the one we grew up in.
我们必须适应这些变化
We have to adapt to those changes.